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Is Trump Bubble Finally Deflating?

September 18, 2015 at 7:10 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 32 Comments

“Donald Trump looked tired after a grueling Republican debate. He might not be alone. After a summer of spectacle and saturation coverage, signs are accumulating that, for the public and the media, the onset of Trump fatigue has begun,” Politico reports.

“Mentions of Trump on both television and radio have been trending downward for a month from their post-Fox debate high. His share of Twitter conversation relative to other candidates has declined in recent weeks, and his odds in political prediction markets have dipped in the hours since Wednesday night’s debate.”

Trump Apparently Wants to ‘Get Rid’ of Muslims

September 17, 2015 at 9:42 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 104 Comments

At a New Hampshire town hall, Donald Trump called on a man in the audience who asserted that President Obama is Muslim and that America needs to “get rid” of Muslims. Trump nodded and responded, “We’re going to be looking at that.”

Paint with Donald Trump

September 17, 2015 at 9:26 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 7 Comments

You have to try it to understand it.

Walker Retrenches to Focus on Iowa

September 17, 2015 at 4:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 75 Comments

Gov. Scott Walker — “who has tumbled from top-tier status amid tepid debate performances and other missteps — will pull back from other early-voting states in favor of a heavy focus on Iowa, where he once led the field and has strong roots as a Midwesterner,” the Washington Post reports.

“The Wisconsin governor also faces growing pressure from some financial backers to make staffing changes in an attempt to turn around his campaign. But in a brief interview… Walker said he had just completed a conference call with about 80 major donors — none of whom mentioned wanting staff changes.”

CNN Debate Gets Massive Audience

September 17, 2015 at 1:25 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 101 Comments

Last night’s GOP president debate averaged 22.9 million viewers, making it the most-watched program in CNN’s history, CNN Money reports.

“For comparison’s sake, CNN’s most-watched presidential primary debate before Wednesday was a Democratic debate on January 31, 2008. It had an average of 8.3 million viewers. CNN’s most-watched program overall was a special “Larry King Live” episode in 1993. The episode featured Al Gore and Ross Perot debating NAFTA and averaged 16.8 million viewers.”

Donald Trump: “Just announced that in the history of CNN, last night’s debate was its highest rated ever. Will they send me flowers & a thank you note?”

How to Make Trump Disappear

September 17, 2015 at 12:02 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 108 Comments

Joe Klein: “We now know how to make Donald Trump disappear: talk policy. He simply has nothing useful to say. He’ll deal with it when the time comes. He’ll hash out Syria with Putin. He’ll hire people. ‘Killers,’ no doubt, as he likes to say. He’ll call Carl Icahn. Carl Icahn? And we now know that Trump will almost certainly lose altitude: his boorishness will grow old, his insults increasingly desperate.”

Adam Nagourney: “For nearly 30 minutes, not long after the debate began, this most colorful of candidates faded to the sidelines as his rivals debated in detail issues like Syria and how to deal with Vladimir V. Putin, the Russian president, subjects that Mr. Trump appeared to struggle with when the questions came to him.”

Bonus Trump Quote of the Day

September 17, 2015 at 11:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 49 Comments

“One thing that I did complain about, three hours is too much for a debate. It’s a long time to be debating but I think it’s even worse for people that have to sit. If this were a two-hour debate, it would’ve been a great debate. Three hours is really unacceptable.”

— Donald Trump, in an interview on MSNBC about last night’s GOP debate.

The Latest on Wonk Wire

September 17, 2015 at 10:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Here’s what’s trending on Wonk Wire:

And a bonus from Working Capital Review:

Millennials: It’s Time to Rethink the Gig Economy

Is the GOP Establishment Ready to Dump Bush?

September 17, 2015 at 9:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 153 Comments

Matt Bai: “If you were in Washington watching the Republican debate last night, you might have felt a small tilt in the floor, or heard the plates rattling gently in their cupboards. That was the sound of the Republican establishment shifting its collective weight away from Jeb Bush — and inching a little bit closer to their best available alternative.”

“And no, it’s not Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina.”

“Not to overstate the crisis here, because one poll can change everything at this stage of a race, but the way I saw it, last night was another minor disaster for Bush. He seemed, yet again, oddly tentative and squirmy, the earnest student body president shoved aside by the boorish quarterback at the pep rally. That performance probably didn’t do much to help Bush among the millions of Republicans who tuned in, especially in the early primary states. But make no mistake: His most important audience right now is the one that pushed him onto that stage in the first place.”

A Party Divided Cannot Stand

September 17, 2015 at 9:27 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 40 Comments

First Read: “Here is our final observation from last night’s debate – the GOP remains divided on so many different issues. Immigration. Foreign policy in the Middle East. How to deal with Planned Parenthood. Marijuana. Bottom line: Winning parties typically don’t usually have this many major differences. And one of the reasons why the GOP remains divided is that it’s still litigating the past GOP administration (the Bush-Trump exchange over the Iraq war captures that perfectly). In 2016, the eventual GOP nominee will be arguing: ‘Trust me — I’m not George W. Bush or the Republicans in Congress.’ But boy, that’s a tough argument to make.”

“Today’s Republican Party is still searching for its core. And as a result, one of the winners from last night’s debate by default was Hillary Clinton or whoever the Dem nominee will be.”

The Dumbest Question of the Debate

September 17, 2015 at 8:08 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 40 Comments

Gawker: “After nearly three hours of monotone droning by a bunch of sweaty old people who will almost certainly never be president, tonight’s Republican debate finally delivered with a bizarre question about potential Secret Service names that produced incredibly absurd answers from every single candidate.”

Clinton Stuck In a Poll-Deflating Feedback Loop

September 17, 2015 at 7:53 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 53 Comments

Nate Silver: “Candidates can just as easily get caught — or entrap themselves — in self-reinforcing cycles of negative media attention and declining poll numbers. Hillary Clinton looks like she’s stuck in one of these ruts right now.”

“The Washington Post’s David Weigel recently observed that voters were hearing about only three types of Clinton stories, all of which have negative implications for her. First are stories about the scandal surrounding the private email server she used as secretary of state. Next are stories about her declining poll numbers. And third are stories about how Vice President Joe Biden might enter the Democratic presidential race.”

“Since Friday, July 24, there have been 13 mornings when Clinton’s email server was a major story, seven mornings when her bad polling numbers were a major story, and seven mornings when speculation about Biden running was a major story. There have also been two other mornings when there were some miscellaneous negative headlines for Clinton, like this one about Bill Clinton’s paid speeches. That’s a total of 29 days of negative coverage in just over seven weeks. Clinton’s campaign has had a lot of bad mornings.”

Trump Quote of the Day

September 17, 2015 at 7:29 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 25 Comments

“Well I thought I was treated fairly. I thought I was on too much. I felt badly for everybody else. Every question had to do with me. Even the first characters, I mean, everything was about Trump. And then they go into this debate and there was split screens all over the place. I’ve never seen anything like it. It was a little bit unfair to a lot of other people, frankly. But from my standpoint, I was treated fairly.”

— Donald Trump, in an interview on MSNBC about last night’s debate.

Another Poll Shows Sanders Ahead in New Hampshire

September 17, 2015 at 7:23 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

A new WBUR poll in New Hampshire finds Bernie Sanders edging Hillary Clinton by a narrow margin, 35% to 31%. Joe Biden would earn 14 percent support, were he to jump in the race.

“Sanders’ lead is within the poll’s margin of error, but it is the fifth consecutive poll of New Hampshire showing Sanders with at least a nominal lead.”

Obamacare Barely Mentioned During GOP Debate

September 17, 2015 at 7:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 22 Comments

“What a difference four years — and millions of people with health insurance — can make in the Republican presidential campaign,” the Huffington Post reports.

“On Wednesday night, for this year’s debate at the Reagan Library, the health care law got almost no attention at all.”

Wonk Wire: Census report shows uninsured rate drops sharply

Is the Summer of Trump Finally Over?

September 17, 2015 at 7:05 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 20 Comments

“Something unusual happened here Wednesday when the Republican presidential candidates met for their second debate: For the first time since he joined the race, Donald Trump wasn’t the commanding presence on the stage,” the Washington Post reports.

“Not that Trump wasn’t the Trump whom Americans have seen nonstop on cable television… But at other times, particularly when the discussion shifted from what Trump has said about the others to issues of domestic and foreign policy, the candidate who has dominated the summer and leads the polls was far less a force.”

Gerald Seib: “While many of the questions posed by the CNN moderators began with a recitation of comments Mr. Trump has made, which left him still at the center of the conversation, his competitors managed to launch a conversation that, for the first time in weeks, got beyond the Trump orbit.”

McCarthy and Ryan Stand Behind Boehner

September 17, 2015 at 7:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

“The only two viable potential replacements for John Boehner as speaker of the House say they back the Ohio Republican and will oppose any effort to remove him from power. But other high-ranking Republicans are testing the waters should the embattled speaker be forced out.”

“In a pair of statements to Politico, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Ways and Means Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) forcefully backed Boehner and called for an end to the intraparty warfare crippling the House Republican Conference as it faces a possible government shutdown on Oct. 1.”

Fiscal Cliff Looms for Congress

September 17, 2015 at 7:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments

“Republicans have maneuvered all year to avoid a fiscal cliff in 2015. Now it looks like they’re going to get a Denali-sized one,” Politico reports.

“With the nation’s borrowing authority set to lapse as early as November, and money to keep the federal government and road construction projects funded increasingly likely to run dry around the same time, the end of 2015 increasingly has the makings of a very unhappy holiday season for Washington. Indeed, the ongoing inertia of Congress could produce a year-end scramble on those big-ticket items, as well as the looming expiration of billions in tax breaks.”