Political Wire

Become a member to get many great benefits -- exclusive analysis, trending news, a private podcast, no ads and more!


Cruz Harvesting Voter Data from Facebook

By 19 Comments

Ted Cruz’s presidential campaign “is using psychological data based on research spanning tens of millions of Facebook users, harvested largely without their permission, to boost his surging White House run and gain an edge over Donald Trump and other Republican rivals,” the Guardian reports.

“A little-known data company, now embedded within Cruz’s campaign and indirectly financed by his primary billionaire benefactor, paid researchers at Cambridge University to gather detailed psychological profiles about the US electorate using a massive pool of mainly unwitting US Facebook users built with an online survey.”

Ran Paul Could Be Bounced from Debate Stage

By 36 Comments

“Rand Paul, once considered the main contender for the anti-establishment GOP vote, will likely be pushed off the debate stage next week when CNN announces the lineup for the fifth Republican forum,” Politico reports.

“Chris Christie, however, has clawed back in the polling thanks to a rebound in New Hampshire, virtually ensuring he will be promoted to the main event in Las Vegas on Tuesday.”

Fourth in Iowa?

By 26 Comments

Stuart Stevens, Mitt Romney’s chief strategist in 2012, tells the Washington Post that he thinks Donald Trump will finish fourth in Iowa, “with Cruz winning and Rubio and Carson in second or third, pick ’em.”

“Trump’s entire definition is based around ‘winning.’ So if he doesn’t win Iowa he has lost Iowa and that makes him a…loser, that dreaded word in the Trump lexicon. So Loser Trump comes out of Iowa and goes into New Hampshire. When is the last time the first-place Republican candidate in New Hampshire spent less time campaigning in the state than the second or third place? New Hampshire voters want to be loved and demand great amounts of personal commitment. If you can win by flying in and out and holding a rally, New Hampshire becomes just another Tarmac Campaign State.”


You're reading the free version of Political Wire

Upgrade to a paid membership to unlock full access. The process is quick and easy. You can even use Apple Pay.




Trump Nomination Would Not Change House Outlook

By 30 Comments

David Wasserman: “Given Trump’s unpopularity with the electorate overall, there’s a possibility he could end an era of very close and competitive presidential elections and suffer a landslide defeat (by modern standards). But what would that mean down-ballot? If Trump becomes his own radioactive island, GOP candidates in swing districts would have no choice but to renounce him and run far away for cover.”

“The challenge in assessing their odds for survival in such a scenario is that there hasn’t been a blowout presidential election in a very long time. However, history is on the GOP’s side.”

“Since 1960, there have only been three elections in which one candidate prevailed by a double-digit margin in a presidential race… Despite the predictable outcome of each of the three landslides, there is scant evidence the losing side’s demoralized voters stayed home in huge numbers or bolted their party en masse down-ballot compared to the previous presidential cycle.”

Quote of the Day

By 53 Comments

“We know that there is a small group, and we don’t know how big that is — it can be anywhere between 5 and 20%, from the people that I speak to — that Islam is their religion and who have a desire for a caliphate and to institute that in any way possible.”

— Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-CA), quoted by BuzzFeed, suggesting up to 20% of Muslims support terrorism.

Trump Independent Bid Would Doom GOP

By 11 Comments

Roughly 4 in 5 GOP insiders, 79%, tell Politico it would be either “impossible” or “very difficult” for the Republican nominee to win the general election if Donald Trump launches a third-party bid, based on electoral math and a general inability for the party’s nominee to focus on the Democratic competitor.

Leading While Campaigning Less

By 2 Comments

A New York Times analysis of how top-tier Republicans seeking the White House spent November reveals that a strenuous itinerary does not necessarily translate to robust poll numbers.

“Jeb Bush, whose failure to connect with voters might normally suggest a lack of effort, logged an impressive 50 public events or fund-raisers in November, sometimes touching down in three states in a single day. But it is Mr. Trump, whose Twitter-fueled, television interview-heavy campaign is upending the conventional approach to running for president, with the travel log that seems so inversely related to his success.”

McConnell Issues Warning on Trade Deal

By 28 Comments

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) “dealt a significant blow” to President Obama’s trade agenda, “declaring that a sweeping pact with 11 Pacific Rim nations should not be sent to Congress for approval until after the 2016 elections — and maybe not until after Obama leaves office,” the Washington Post reports.

Said McConnell: “Yeah, I think it would be a big mistake to send it up before the election.”

Washington Post: “McConnell’s comments should serve as a reality-check antidote to optimism that has come out of the White House on issues like criminal justice reform and from Speaker Paul Ryan, who dreams of passing a bunch of big-ticket items to demonstrate that Republicans can govern.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

By 17 Comments

“I watched him find that sweet spot of compromise on immigration reform, but then he broke down like a cheap shotgun the minute the right started chewing on his rear end.”

— Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO), quoted by Politico, on how Sen. Marco Rubio backed away from his own immigration reform proposal.

Democrats No Longer Laughing at Trump

By 19 Comments

New York Times: “At a town hall here on Wednesday, Mrs. Clinton delivered her most damning, direct criticism of Mr. Trump, saying that he traffics ‘in prejudice and paranoia,’ and that his Muslim proposal was ‘not only shameful, it’s dangerous.'”

“The remarks bore little resemblance to Mrs. Clinton’s previous dismissals of Mr. Trump, She had portrayed him as a reality television sideshow who voiced more extreme terms beliefs that, she contended, his more serious G.O.P. rivals shared.”

Attacks on Trump Make Supporters Like Him More

By 51 Comments

The Washington Post covered a focus group run by Frank Luntz:

“Over three hours in Alexandria, Luntz lobbed dozens of Trump-seeking missiles. All 29 in the group had voted for Mitt Romney in 2012. All either supported Trump, or had supported him earlier in the year. To Luntz’s amazement, hearing negative information about the candidate made the voters, only a few of whom gave their full names to the press, hug the candidate tighter.”

GOP Preparing for Contested Convention

By 102 Comments

Republican officials “are now preparing for the possibility of a brokered convention as Donald Trump continues sit atop the polls and the presidential race,” the Washington Post reports.

“More than 20 of them convened Monday for a dinner held by Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, where the prospect of Trump nearing next year’s nominating convention in Cleveland with a significant number of delegates dominated the discussion… Considering that scenario as Priebus and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) listened, several longtime power brokers argued that if the controversial billionaire storms through the primaries, the party’s establishment must lay the groundwork for a floor fight, in which the GOP’s mainstream wing could coalesce around an alternative, the people said.”

Quote of the Day

By 36 Comments

“I think they would choose a reasonable alternative like I’m what proposing if we were given more airtime.”

— Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), quoted by BuzzFeed, saying he needs more airtime to beat Donald Trump.

The Trump Effect

By 42 Comments

Larry Sabato: “The Trump effect is now probably long-term, meaning that even if he falls by the wayside in the nomination contest, he will continue to be a factor. Maybe he will run as an independent. Maybe he will make life difficult for the eventual GOP nominee from his permanent headquarters on Twitter. Or maybe it’s simply the accumulation of his offensive statements on videotape that will be used by Democrats to taint the fall Republican ticket.”

Gaming Out Iowa and the GOP Nomination

By 7 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

With 53 days until the first voting starts in Iowa, it appears the GOP race is coming down to three candidates: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. The HuffPost Pollster averages show all three gaining ground in Iowa with the rest of the field fading. It’s possible that one or more may yet stumble, but each is currently the clear frontrunner in their respective “lanes” to the nomination.

Join now to continue reading.

Members get exclusive analysis, bonus features and no advertising. Learn more.

If you’re already a member, sign in to your account.

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

Praise for Political Wire

“There are a lot of blogs and news sites claiming to understand politics, but only a few actually do. Political Wire is one of them.”

— Chuck Todd, host of “Meet the Press”

“Concise. Relevant. To the point. Political Wire is the first site I check when I’m looking for the latest political nugget. That pretty much says it all.”

— Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report

“Political Wire is one of only four or five sites that I check every day and sometimes several times a day, for the latest political news and developments.”

— Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report

“The big news, delicious tidbits, pearls of wisdom — nicely packaged, constantly updated… What political junkie could ask for more?”

— Larry Sabato, Center for Politics, University of Virginia

“Political Wire is a great, great site.”

— Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe”

“Taegan Goddard has a knack for digging out political gems that too often get passed over by the mainstream press, and for delivering the latest electoral developments in a sharp, no frills style that makes his Political Wire an addictive blog habit you don’t want to kick.”

— Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post

“Political Wire is one of the absolute must-read sites in the blogosphere.”

— Glenn Reynolds, founder of Instapundit

“I rely on Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire for straight, fair political news, he gets right to the point. It’s an eagerly anticipated part of my news reading.”

— Craig Newmark, founder of Craigslist.