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Clinton Could Survive Loss in New Hampshire

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Washington Post: “Clinton has hardly written off the state, but appears to be working on the assumption that a loss here would be only a temporary blow on the way to a relatively easy primary victory. She is likely to defeat Sanders the week before in Iowa, where the first 2016 presidential selection contest will be held, and again in the next two contests in South Carolina and Nevada. She is also favored in the heavy slate of southern and other states that vote in early and mid-March.”

Politico: Clinton fights to reclaim New Hampshire

A Month Is a Long Time in Politics

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This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

With the Iowa caucuses just 34 days away, it’s easy to look at the polls for guidance as to who might win. But the last two presidential elections have shown big surprises in the final month.

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Ted Cruz Loves the Campaign Trail

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Bloomberg: “Ted Cruz is as comfortable and happy on the stump as he is uptight and gloomy on Capitol Hill. While Republican rivals like Florida Senator Marco Rubio, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, and Ohio Governor John Kasich approach campaigning like a job, Cruz revels in it, often coming across as a boisterous televangelist feeding off the adoration of the crowd.”

“He deploys fiery lines and sarcastic jokes from one campaign stop to the next with an identical script and delivery, right down to the pauses for applause and impact, like an actor who has practiced and perfected a routine in the mirror the night before.”

Trump Voters Want Revenge

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Frank Luntz: “The phenomenon of ‘The Donald’ is rooted in a psyche far deeper and more consequential than next November’s presidential election… These individuals do not like being told by Washington or Wall Street what is best for them, … and disdain President Barack Obama and his (perceived) circle of self-righteous, tone-deaf governing partisans. Trump voters are not just angry – they want revenge.”

Bloomberg: “The million-dollar question in 2016 is whether the estranged and alienated voters Trump has attracted will show up at the polls that count. The answer to that question will determine whether Trump has changed American politics as we know it.”

Rubio Refuses to Pick One Early State

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“With a nationally focused campaign that leans on strong debate performances and television advertising, Marco Rubio isn’t going all out in any one of the early voting states. That’s raised eyebrows among Republicans in states such as Iowa, where people are used to attention in a presidential campaign,” the AP reports.

“That’s unlike Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who has set his sights on Iowa, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who is pushing hard in New Hampshire. While supporters say Rubio just needs to stay in the top cluster in the first few states, some see his approach as risky.”

Bloomberg: “Rubio’s pitch to Republican voters is focused on his electability. Campaign allies who introduce him on the stump make a point to mention it, and the Floridian likes to bring it up himself.”

The Income Defense Industry

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The New York Times reports on how “the very richest Americans have financed a sophisticated and astonishingly effective apparatus for shielding their fortunes.”

“Operating largely out of public view — in tax court, through arcane legislative provisions and in private negotiations with the Internal Revenue Service — the wealthy have used their influence to steadily whittle away at the government’s ability to tax them. The effect has been to create a kind of private tax system, catering to only several thousand Americans.”

GOP Flirting with Chaos at Convention

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Ben Ginsberg, the former counsel to both Mitt Romney’s and George W. Bush’s presidential bids, detailed three possible scenarios in the Wall Street Journal for the Republican convention:

“Three convention scenarios can emerge after 56 states and territories choose their delegates between Feb. 1 and June 7: There will be a clear winner, a bunched up field of several candidates, or a leader who can’t get a majority of delegates on the first ballot. The latter two scenarios would make Cleveland uncharted territory.”

Trump Vows to Spend Big

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“Donald Trump claims his campaign is tens of millions of dollars under budget. But now, he’s apparently ready to spend big,” Politico reports.

“However, it’s not clear what spending ‘big’ would look like for Trump, or even whether he’ll follow through. For the third quarter, his campaign originally budgeted $25 million for TV advertising, but ended up spending nothing.”

Wall Street Journal: “Trump’s campaign is starting to use a computerized system to track support ahead of Iowa’s first-in-the-nation nominating contest, a sign it is spending more money on his presidential bid.”

Obama Readies Wave of New Regulations

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“President Obama is preparing to unleash a wave of new regulations in 2016, as he looks to shore up his legacy on public protection issues during his final year in office,” The Hill reports.

“The Securities and Exchange Commission, the Food and Drug Administration and the Department of Labor are all expected to finalize major federal rules that critics say are long overdue.”

Carson Will Announce Campaign Changes Next Week

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Ben Carson “pledged to announce next week changes to his campaign, following days of back-and-forth about whether his operation is due for a shakeup,” Politico reports.

“Carson has given mixed signals in recent days about whether he’s planning to make personnel shifts and other changes in a bid to revive his flagging campaign. Last week, the retired neurosurgeon did interviews with The Washington Post and The Associated Press in which he hinted that changes were coming and said ‘everything is on the table.’ But before the day was over, he took his words back and laid blame on the two media outlets.”

Tennessee Could Decide GOP Nominee

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Politico: “Tennessee is now one of the biggest hubs for GOP political activity in the country. … Tennessee has 58 delegates up for grabs on March 1. That’s the third-biggest slate of delegates available that day, following Texas and Georgia … An ad buy in Knoxville, in the eastern part of the state, can also hit corners of Virginia, North Carolina and Kentucky.”

Trump Gets Access to RNC Voter File

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“Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, which has faced doubts about its ability to translate enthusiasm into votes, in the past few weeks quietly signed an agreement allowing it to use the Republican National Committee’s massive voter file,” Politico reports.

“For the Trump campaign, it means access to a database containing a trove of information on more than 200 million Americans, which can be used to power a get-out-the-vote effort. And for the RNC, it means that any information Trump collects from his supporters, many of whom are not traditional Republicans, will be fed back into the database for future use by the party and its candidates.”

The Money Network of Malaysian Politics

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“Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak was fighting for his political life this summer after revelations that almost $700 million from an undisclosed source had entered his personal bank accounts.”

“It still isn’t clear where the $700 million came from or where it went. But a six-month Wall Street Journal examination revealed that public entities spent hundreds of millions of dollars on a massive patronage machine to help ensure Mr. Najib’s United Malays National Organization stayed in power. The payments, while legal, represented a new milestone in Malaysia’s freewheeling electoral system, according to ruling-party officials.”

Trump Quote of the Day

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“He’s a real low life, there’s no question about it. He’s a very dishonest man.”

— Donald Trump, quoted by Politico, after New Hampshire Union Leader publisher Joe McQuaid ran an editorial comparing Trump to Biff Tannen from the movie “Back to the Future.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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