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Who Will Be the GOP Establishment Candidate?

October 3, 2015 at 3:08 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 18 Comments

Dan Balz: “The Republican presidential contest is not, regardless of what is seems some days, all about Donald Trump. There’s another dynamic unfolding that has almost nothing to do with the businessman-politician currently atop the polls but that will have a major influence on who becomes the party’s nominee.”

“This other struggle involves the competition among Jeb Bush, Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. John Kasich. History suggests that whoever emerges triumphant in this three-way rivalry will be in a strong position to claim the nomination, though admittedly the past has been a poor predictor of events so far in this campaign.”

Pretending It Won’t Happen Again

October 3, 2015 at 2:58 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Stephen Colbert: “One of the definitions of insanity is changing nothing and pretending something will change.”

Sanders Says He’s In Until the End

October 3, 2015 at 1:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 104 Comments

Just after announcing big fundraising numbers, Sen. Bernie Sanders told MSNBC that his campaign is “in this to the finish.”

Said Sanders: “I think what the results today show is that we are going to have more than enough money to run very strong campaigns in New Hampshire, in Iowa, in Nevada and South Carolina, the first elections that are coming up. But we’re going to be very strong on Super Tuesday as well. So we now have enough money to run a winning campaign.”

He added: “I’ll let people read what secretary Clinton’s fundraising is about and where she gets her money. I think there is a very different pattern. I would rather be where I am, that’s the way I like to do politics, involve whole lots of people.”


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Bonus Quote of the Day

October 3, 2015 at 12:54 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 37 Comments

“I have never dismembered a goat in my life. I have performed animal sacrifices as part of my religion.”

— Florida U.S. Senate candidate Augustus Sol Invictus (L), quoted by Politico.

Quote of the Day

October 3, 2015 at 12:42 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments

“I felt bad for them. In the first debate, it felt like they were taking a theology test in hatred of government, and Trump blew past them.”

— Bill Clinton, quoted by the Washington Post.

When a President Admits He Can’t Fix a Problem

October 3, 2015 at 10:39 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 22 Comments

George Condon: “That is what Pres­id­ent Obama did Fri­day when asked if he can use his ‘mor­al au­thor­ity’ and bully pul­pit to reach those who see gun vi­ol­ence as a way out of their per­son­al troubles. It is such a rare mo­ment be­cause pres­id­ents have all the might of the U.S. mil­it­ary, all the reach of a sprawl­ing gov­ern­ment bur­eau­cracy, and all the mor­al sua­sion of the of­fice at their dis­pos­al. Pres­id­ents al­most nev­er ad­mit that they can’t do something.”

“That this pres­id­ent did just that provides a valu­able in­sight in­to his pro­found ex­as­per­a­tion at the con­tinu­ing do­mest­ic death toll from gun vi­ol­ence.”

Wonk Wire: The U.S. is much more violent than other countries

Chaffetz Will Highlight His Anti-Establishment Roots

October 3, 2015 at 9:53 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 30 Comments

Rep. Jason Chaffetz’s (R-UT) bid to become the next Speaker of the House will highlight his Tea Party roots and anti-establishment credentials, The Hill reports.

>House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) “remains the favorite and has been rounding up support over the last week. But Chaffetz backers sense that House Republicans are yearning for a fresh face who isn’t a senior member of the leadership team. Chaffetz’s pitch to his colleagues will note that he had to defeat the GOP establishment to get to Congress in 2008 — by trouncing then-Rep. Chris Cannon, a six-term incumbent who was backed by then-President George W. Bush.”

Jeb Bush, Then and Now

October 3, 2015 at 8:32 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 57 Comments

“Preston de Ibern could only smile up from his wheelchair and attempt to focus on the tearful adults standing over him, not comprehending that a law to keep other children from near-drownings will be named for him. After the House voted 109-8 for the bill on Friday, Preston met Gov. Jeb Bush, who committed to signing a bill that requires new pool owners to pick a way to keep unsupervised children out of the water.”

— Sun Sentinel, May 6, 2000.

“Tragedies. A child drowned in a pool and the impulse is to pass a law that puts fencing around pools. Well it may not change it. Or you have a car accident and the impulse is to pass a law that deals with that unique event. And the cumulative effect of this is, in some cases, you don’t solve the problem by passing the law, and you’re imposing on large numbers of people burdens that make it harder for our economy to grow, make it harder to protect liberty.”

— Jeb Bush, quoted yesterday by the New York Times, about the tendency to pass laws in response to tragic events.

Some Clinton Donors Defect to Biden

October 3, 2015 at 8:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 22 Comments

“Some Hillary Clinton donors are defecting to Joe Biden, resisting entreaties from the Democratic front-runner’s campaign to stand by her despite slipping poll numbers,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“A few of the fundraisers have gone public with their presidential preference. Others have quietly decamped and signaled their intentions to the Draft Biden 2016 super PAC that is working to prod the vice president into the race for the White House.”

Clinton Loses Major Endorsement

October 2, 2015 at 10:50 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 61 Comments

The International Association of Fire Fighters, one of the country’s more politically powerful unions, has abandoned its initial plans to endorse Hillary Clinton for president, the New York Times reports.

Obama Blasts Bush for ‘Stuff Happens’ Comment

October 2, 2015 at 10:45 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 22 Comments

President Bush rebuked Jeb Bush after the Republican presidential candidate shrugged off any need for government action in the wake of the massacre at a community college in Oregon, the New York Times reports.

Said Obama: “The American people should hear that and make their own judgments based on the fact that every couple of months, we have a mass shooting. They can decide whether they consider that ‘stuff happens.’”

“The exchange between Mr. Obama and Mr. Bush reflected the paralysis that has settled over the issue of new gun control legislation in the United States. Virtually no member of Congress issued a statement after the Oregon shootings arguing for or against new gun control measures, and a number of the 2016 Republican presidential candidates were dismissive of new gun control measures as well.”

Normal Massacres

October 2, 2015 at 10:37 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 3 Comments

The Economist, in June:

“The regularity of mass killings breeds familiarity. The rhythms of grief and outrage that accompany them become — for those not directly affected by tragedy — ritualised and then blend into the background noise. That normalisation makes it ever less likely that America’s political system will groan into action to take steps to reduce their frequency or deadliness. Those who live in America, or visit it, might do best to regard them the way one regards air pollution in China: an endemic local health hazard which, for deep-rooted cultural, social, economic and political reasons, the country is incapable of addressing. This may, however, be a bit unfair. China seems to be making progress on pollution.”

New Poll Finds Carson Moving Into National Lead

October 2, 2015 at 6:48 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 79 Comments

A new IBD/TIPP Poll shows Ben Carson leading the GOP presidential race with 24%, followed by Donald Trump at 17%, Marco Rubio at 11%, Carly Fiorina at 9% and Jeb Bush at 8%.

Obama Won’t Sign Another Short Term Spending Bill

October 2, 2015 at 6:44 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 9 Comments

President Obama pledged that he “would not sign another temporary spending measure after the one passed this week, a move to try to raise the pressure on Congress to reach a long-term agreement to finance the government,” the New York Times reports.

The short-term spending bill that was passed this week to pay for government operations until Dec. 11, he said, was a “gimmick” that only “sets up another potential manufactured crisis just two weeks before Christmas.”

He added: “This is not the way the U.S. should be operating.”

How Unpopular Is Bobby Jindal in Louisiana?

October 2, 2015 at 5:44 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 14 Comments

A new WWL-TV/Advocate poll in Louisiana finds Gov. Bobby Jindal trailing Hillary Clinton in a presidential match up in his home state by three points, 45% to 42%.

In contrast, Jeb Bush would crush Clinton by 18 points, 56% to 38%.

Kasich Says Bush Is Getting Nervous

October 2, 2015 at 5:03 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 24 Comments

Gov. John Kasich mocked allies of Jeb Bush after reports that a pro-Bush super-PAC has started researching at his congressional library collection, The Hill reports.

Said Kasich: “I would think they are in there because they are getting nervous.”

He added: “When you are trailing in places like New Hampshire, where John Sununu has built a great team, and not doing so hot in other places, of course they are going to go looking around at who might be the mature adult who knows how to reform and fix things and be a leader rather than an administrator.”

Trump Maintains His National Lead

October 2, 2015 at 4:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 18 Comments

A new Pew Research poll finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential field nationally with 25%, followed by Ben Carson at 16%, Marco Rubio at 8%, Carly Fiorina at 8%, Ted Cruz at 6% and Jeb Bush at 4%.

A quarter (25%) of potential Republican primary voters do not mention a first choice today, four months before the first caucuses and primaries.

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

October 2, 2015 at 4:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 111 Comments

“Stuff happens.”

— Jeb Bush, quoted by Ryan Lizza, arguing against gun control after the mass killings at an Oregon community college. Bush later defended his comments.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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