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Trump Shakes Up the GOP Race

July 18, 2015 at 10:40 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 21 Comments

“Something strange has happened to the Republican presidential field since Donald Trump joined it a month ago: Mr. Trump and Jeb Bush are rising. Everyone else is falling in the polls, or seems stuck in place,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Mr. Bush’s support has jumped by about four percentage points in the Real Clear Politics average of polls, rising to 15.5%. Mr. Trump’s support has bumped up more than 10 points since mid-June, to 15% as of Friday. And everyone else? Here’s another view of how support for most of them has fallen during the course of the Trump bump.”

How Will the Economy Impact the 2016 Election?

July 18, 2015 at 10:20 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 55 Comments

New York Times: “They said they believed that unemployment would be the lowest it has been during an election since George W. Bush and Al Gore faced off in 2000, when it stood at 3.9 percent. The median forecast for the unemployment rate when voters go to the polls in November 2016 was 4.8 percent (which would be down from 5.3 percent last month). They saw only a 15 percent chance of a recession starting by next Election Day. Interest rates, inflation and gasoline prices should all be a bit higher than they are now, they said, while staying quite low by historical standards.”

“On its face, all of that points to an election with dynamics similar to 1988 or 2000, when the nominee of the incumbent party (George H. W. Bush in 1988 and Mr. Gore in 2000) could promise continued prosperity. That bodes well for the Democratic nominee, though as Mr. Gore’s loss despite winning the popular vote shows, even a favorable economy doesn’t assure victory, given the workings of the Electoral College.”

GOP May Move On Gay Marriage Law

July 18, 2015 at 6:35 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 48 Comments

New York Times: “Legislation granting protections for tax-exempt organizations and individuals objecting to same-sex marriage on religious or moral grounds is gathering momentum in the House. The bills, drafted by Representative Raúl R. Labrador, Republican of Idaho, and Senator Mike Lee, Republican of Utah, already have 130 co-sponsors. On Thursday, the Republican Study Committee, the largest, most organized group of conservatives in the House, demanded a vote.”

“At the same time, wary Republican moderates have quietly drafted a novel alternative that would actually expand legal protections for gay men and lesbians. Their legislation would narrow the scope of protection offered to groups declining services to same-sex couples seeking to marry.”

Many Republicans Still Puzzled Over Trump

July 18, 2015 at 6:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 29 Comments

New York Times: “Mr. Trump is not, as many Republicans have suggested, merely a renegade agitator who sneaked up on the party establishment and threatens to spoil its plans for a tidy, civil primary. Rather, he has become the new starring attraction for the restless, conservative-minded voters who think the political process is in need of disruption.”

“Some align themselves with the Tea Party movement. Others call themselves independents or Republicans who are just fed up.”

Huffington Post Stops Covering Trump in Politics Section

July 17, 2015 at 6:54 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 59 Comments

The Huffington Post announced that they would no longer cover the candidate as a political story.

“After watching and listening to Donald Trump since he announced his candidacy for president, we have decided we won’t report on Trump’s campaign as part of The Huffington Post‘s political coverage. Instead, we will cover his campaign as part of our Entertainment section… Our reason is simple: Trump’s campaign is a sideshow. We won’t take the bait. If you are interested in what The Donald has to say, you’ll find it next to our stories on the Kardashians and The Bachelorette.”

Rand Paul Slips to Second Tier

July 17, 2015 at 6:51 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 32 Comments

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) “had counted on building from the grass-roots base of his father, former Rep. Ron Paul, and winning enough support from the Republican mainstream to compete for the party’s 2016 presidential nomination,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Instead, the Kentucky lawmaker is slipping in the polls, lagging in fundraising and losing some of his father’s loyalists over foreign-policy disagreements. Campaign metrics suggest he’s no longer a first-tier candidate after falling behind the front-runners on all those measures.”

Bonus Trump Quote of the Day

July 17, 2015 at 3:05 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 49 Comments

“I’m a person who if someone sticks with me I’m with that person. And John McCain was very disloyal to me.”

— Donald Trump, quoted by The Hill, predicting Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) will lose his GOP primary.

Quote of the Day

July 17, 2015 at 2:42 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 67 Comments

“Iran is like the health care debate for Republicans. They’re filled with rage but not with ideas.”

— David Axelrod, quoted by the Washington Post.

Where Is Rand Paul?

July 17, 2015 at 1:12 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 36 Comments

NBC News: “Just a year ago, if he wasn’t considered a leading prospective presidential candidate, he certainly was an interesting one — given his libertarianism and less-hawkish views on foreign policy. But now that the presidential contest is well under way, Rand Paul has gone missing — both figuratively and literally — from a big part of the 2016 conversation.”

“But Paul’s campaign team argues that this absence from the campaign conversation is by design — to play the long delegate game, and to avoid sharing the crowded space with other Republican presidential candidates.”

Grimm Sentenced to Prison

July 17, 2015 at 1:09 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 13 Comments

Former Rep. Michael Grimm (R-NY) has been sentenced to eight months in prison, the Staten Island Advance reports.

“The sentencing brings to a close months of speculation as to whether the scandal-scarred Grimm would see prison time or probation for hiding $1 million in sales receipts from his restaurant, Healthalicious, hiring undocumented immigrants and lying under oath in a 2013 civil deposition. He could have faced a maximum of three years behind bars, plus a year of supervised release.”

Building the Trump Brand

July 17, 2015 at 9:53 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 41 Comments

Charles Blow: “Let me be clear: Trump will not be the president of the United States. But I firmly believe that Trump not only knows that, he doesn’t want to be president. Trump is brand-building. This is all free publicity for a salesman in the business of selling himself.”

“There is a cottage industry among some public people that is breathing new life into the adage ‘all press is good press.’ These people use ignobility as an elevator; they inflame their way to infamy. They get the country talking and their names trending, then they turn that cultural currency into hard currency.”

“Every minute Trump is on your television screens, it’s good for Trump. Every time Trump’s name is mentioned on social media, it’s good for Trump. Every time someone writes about Trump, it’s good for Trump. This column is good for Trump.”

What Happens to the GOP After Trump?

July 17, 2015 at 8:55 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 61 Comments

Charlie Cook: “It’s still a great question how this Republican nomination race will sort out once this Trump nonsense ends. The GOP splits roughly 60-40 these days: 60 percent of its voters are pretty conventional, mainstream Republicans, while the other 40 percent are of a somewhat more exotic variety, up from just a third a decade ago. This latter group is made up of three subgroups: secular, anti-establishment, tea-party adherents; evangelical conservatives driven chiefly by cultural issues; and those who are just really conservative and more ideologically driven than your normal garden-variety Republicans.”

“Historically, this collection of less-conventional Republicans has loomed large in Iowa, then gradually given way to more-mainstream GOP voters in the final stretch, but the harder-edged Republicans have been on the ascendency and may play an even greater role in choosing the nominee this time around than in the past.”

Cole Blasts Protestors Who Waved Confederate Flags

July 17, 2015 at 8:42 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 47 Comments

Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) ripped protesters in Oklahoma who greeted President Obama in Oklahoma City by waving Confederate flags, The Hill reports.

Said Cole: “Their actions were not only disappointing but incredibly disrespectful, insensitive and embarrassing to the entire state. The unacceptable behavior displayed by these individuals certainly does not reflect the values and views of the vast majority of Oklahomans. No president should ever be confronted by such behavior, especially when the purpose of the visit was meant to celebrate and recognize some of our state’s greatest achievements.”

Trump Quote of the Day

July 17, 2015 at 8:25 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 37 Comments

“Could you imagine me signing a false document? Me? Right now the most high-profile guy in the world. More Google hits than anybody in the entire world by a factor of 10.”

— Donald Trump, quoted by Bloomberg, on those questioning his financial disclosure forms filed with the Federal Election Commission.

Clinton Already Building Massive Campaign

July 17, 2015 at 7:37 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 26 Comments

“In the first three months of her presidential campaign, Hillary Clinton has assembled a massive political battleship — hiring more than 400 staff members, collecting reams of expensive polling data and tapping top-flight consultants,” the Washington Post reports.

“Campaign officials said they needed to expand quickly to be able to weather a surprisingly competitive Democratic primary fight and intense general-election battle. But the large expenditures cut against the image Clinton’s team has promoted of a lean organization that would not repeat the mistakes of what many considered her undisciplined campaign in 2008. And they raise questions about whether Clinton’s fundraising can keep pace with her rapid spending.”

GOP Readies New Push Against Abortion

July 17, 2015 at 7:21 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 35 Comments

“In recent years, Republicans have worked to soften their tone when it comes to contentious issues such as abortion, wanting to avoid a repeat of gaffes like Todd Akin’s ‘legitimate rape’ comments that have turned off many female voters,” Politico reports.

“But now, the GOP is going hard on abortion politics — and Planned Parenthood specifically — following the release of the video depicting a top official for the group casually talking about doctors collecting fetal organs for biomedical companies during abortions.”

Trump Voters Look Like the GOP

July 17, 2015 at 7:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 22 Comments

Politico: “As it turns out, the Trump coalition looks a lot like the rest of the Republican Party. Other than a spike in support in the Northeast, there is little in recent polling data to distinguish Trump’s supporters from the heart of the GOP primary electorate. Even immigration hardliners support him at the same rate as the rest of the Republican Party.”

Cruz Super PAC Will Highlight Wedge Issues

July 17, 2015 at 7:08 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 11 Comments

“The $38 million super PAC supporting Ted Cruz plans to highlight polarizing issues as part of a full-throttle plan to turn out the white evangelical voters that can power him to victory, a new document reveals,” CNN reports.

“The presentation, seemingly written to appeal to donors, syncs with much of the pitch that Cruz himself makes on the stump: that Republicans have their best chance of winning the White House if they nominate a clear-eyed conservative who can turn out the GOP base. But the presentation makes the fullest case yet for how Cruz’s allies believe he has a path both to win the Republican nomination and then to defeat Hillary Clinton, who is mentioned by name in the presentation.”