G. Elliot Morris notes 17 Republican and 11 Democratic U.S. House members have said they won’t run for re-election next year.

“Historically, the number of net retirements for each party is a pretty reliable predictor of which one will pick up seats in the U.S. House during the next midterm. The following rules are not true for every cycle, but are pretty good: (1) Whichever party has more net retirements tends to lose more seats, all else being equal; and (2) More net retirements usually translates to more seats lost.”

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is scheduled to speak about political violence later today, less than a week after a gunman assassinated conservative influencer Charlie Kirk, the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports.

“A special election in Minnesota on Tuesday will determine who will fill the seat of the late Democratic state Rep. Melissa Hortman, just over three months after she and her husband were fatally shot in what Gov. Tim Walz at the time called ‘a politically motivated assassination’ and less than a week after the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk,” CNN reports.

Washington Post: It’s Election Day in a Minnesota suburb — because of political violence.

New York Times: “High-profile elections this fall — including a contentious ballot measure in California over redistricting and governor’s races in New Jersey and Virginia — have captured significant attention as barometers of the national mood and President Trump’s performance in the White House ahead of pivotal midterms next year. But the outcome of three quirky, under-the-radar contests for State Supreme Court judges in Pennsylvania will have implications well beyond the Keystone State.”

“The elections, called retention elections, will decide whether three justices who were elected as Democrats keep their seats, which will determine the tilt of the seven-member Pennsylvania State Supreme Court through the next presidential election. What’s at stake is nothing less than control of the highest court in the most important swing state in the country.”