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Trump Will Sign GOP Loyalty Pledge

September 3, 2015 at 11:06 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 46 Comments

A close associate tells Politico that Donald Trump plans to sign a loyalty pledge “that would bind him to endorse the Republican nominee, and would preclude a third-party run. Trump made the stunning decision, which he has long resisted, to avoid complications in getting listed on primary ballots, and to take away an attack line in the next debate.”

“So his decision to give it up is a sign that he increasingly wants to show his campaign is real and not a stunt. The colorful magnate is also trying to make that point by adding staff in key states, issuing position papers, and pursuing access to primary ballots throughout the country.”

Chris Cillizza: “But  there is absolutely no reason to think that simply by the act of signing this pledge, Trump will somehow be legally bound to not run as anything but a Republican in 2016. He won’t be.”

Jonathan Chait: “All Trump needs is some insult to his oceanic ego to declare any previous agreement null and void. And if Trump does run as an independent, that is the ball game. He wouldn’t even need to appear on the ballot everywhere. A few key states could swing the outcome. For that matter, he could swing the outcome without even making the ballot. All Trump would need to do is campaign as a write-in candidate, and if he persuades a couple percent of the voters to go along, that could make all the difference in a polarized electorate.”

Trump Isn’t Going Anywhere

September 3, 2015 at 10:02 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 43 Comments

Chris Cillizza: “The summer of Trump looks poised to turn seamlessly to the autumn of Trump. His numbers in Iowa and New Hampshire — as well as nationally — look to have topped off a bit of late, but a) that still puts him in a very strong position, and b) his numbers haven’t dropped off in any meaningful way.”

“Trump’s immigration stance makes him appealing to a large number of conservatives, and his willingness to say whatever he is thinking at any moment conveys a sense of freedom that attracts less partisan Republicans. Trump’s, um, trump card in the race might actually be his unwillingness to accept big-dollar contributions; that’s his biggest applause line at many of his events.”

Amy Walter: Winner and losers from the summer of Trump

Clinton Moves to Head Off Sanders in New Hampshire

September 3, 2015 at 9:56 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 16 Comments

Hillary Clinton’s campaign “is preparing to ramp up operations in New Hampshire to halt Bernie Sanders’ advance and rescue a lead in a state so many Democrats had thought would be an easy win for the front-runner,” Politico reports.


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Calls Intensify for More Democratic Debates

September 3, 2015 at 9:16 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 45 Comments

New York Times: “A growing number of party activists, from New Hampshire to Iowa, are voicing concern about the Democratic National Committee’s plan to hold six debates over all, with only four coming before the first four states finish voting. The party fears a lower number will of debates will diminish its ability to drive the discussion as the Republican contest, led by Donald J. Trump, dominates the news, and that a flabby process will leave the ultimate nominee unprepared for the general election.”

“The timing of the New Hampshire debate, sandwiched between the Hanukkah and Christmas holidays, has particularly rankled activists in the state, who have openly protested the decision.”

Ex-Clinton Staffer Will Plead the Fifth on Email Server

September 3, 2015 at 8:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 52 Comments

A former Hillary Clinton staffer who helped set up the former secretary of state’s private email server has vowed to invoke the Fifth Amendment and refuse to answer questions after a congressional committee subpoenaed him, NBC News reports.

First Read says the news “is yet another reminder how this email story is out of her control. After all, what’s in the best interests of the campaign (Team Clinton released a statement that they wanted the former aide, Bryan Pagliano, to testify) isn’t necessarily in the best interests of everyone involved (Pagliano’s lawyer certainly thought otherwise). And when that dynamic is at play, things are no longer in your hands.”

Trump Popularity Is Response to Brain Dead Politics

September 3, 2015 at 8:21 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 45 Comments

Larry Sabato: “While there are 22 presidential candidates — 23 if Biden runs — most of them are human tape recorders. On the top 25 or 30 issues, each has memorized a paragraph or two; mention the issue and the candidates push the ‘play’ button in their heads. Almost word-for-word each time, they recite the pollster-researched, consultant-approved soundbites designed to produce a Pavlovian response in partisans.”

“Problem is, Americans would generally prefer to elect a human being, not an automaton. It’s at least possible that a few more intractable problems would get solved if potential presidents were less inflexible — or so it appears to many voters.”

“Whatever else you think of him, Trump is no automaton. He isn’t rehearsed, at least compared to the others: We can’t take our eyes off him because we’re not at all sure what he’s going to say next.”

Lawmakers Deny They Were ‘Making Out’

September 3, 2015 at 7:44 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 126 Comments

Two Minnesota lawmakers, Rep. Tim Kelly (R) and Rep. Tara Mack (R), vehemently denied a park ranger’s report that they were “making out” in a car, KARE reports.

From the ranger’s notes: “Was making out with female in car. When I approached the female’s pants were unzipped and pulled down.”

Kelly and Mack, who are both married to other people, said the park ranger’s statement “was completely false and egregious.” They claim they met in the park to “exchange some documents.”

O’Malley Super PAC Cuts Iowa Staff

September 3, 2015 at 7:37 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 21 Comments

“A super PAC supporting Democratic presidential hopeful Martin O’Malley has laid off 38 organizers in Iowa — about three-quarters of its staff here,” the Washington Post reports.

“Generation Forward, a political action committee launched by longtime O’Malley aides and other boosters, maintains 13 people on the ground in the nation’s first nominating state, spokesman Ron Boehmer said Wednesday night.”

GOP Seeks to Avert Third-Party Run

September 3, 2015 at 7:35 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 24 Comments

“Seeking to avert a 2016 disaster, the Republican National Committee on Wednesday challenged every GOP presidential candidate to sign a pledge not to undertake a third-party bid under any circumstances,” the AP reports.

“The challenge, confirmed by multiple campaigns, is aimed squarely at Donald Trump. And the timing of the pledge suggests an agreement has been reached.  While neither side would publicly confirm late Wednesday that an agreement had been reached, Trump has hinted in recent days the GOP lobbying was beginning to work.”

CNN: “According to sources familiar with the discussions, all signs indicate that Trump will sign a pledge to support the Republican nominee if he loses, and not run as an independent.”

Trump Quote of the Day

September 3, 2015 at 7:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 14 Comments

“So win, lose, or draw, I’m glad I did it. Although it’s too early to say that yet.”

— Donald Trump, in an interview with Bloomberg, saying “the cool thing about his race to be the leader of the free world is that if he loses he gets to go back to being Donald Trump again—only an even vaster version.”

Trump Could Ensure Democratic Dominance for Years

September 2, 2015 at 8:50 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 63 Comments

Politico: “Donald Trump knows the United States will never deport eleven million undocumented immigrants or do away with birthright citizenship. But what if we did—what would be the political impact if Trump and other angry nativists in the GOP actually achieved most or all the changes they desire, cutting immigration back sharply?”

“We already know, because something very similar happened once before in American history. Ninety years ago, two Republican presidents—Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge—and a Congress dominated by Republicans enacted equally harsh policies against immigrants. Their success helped usher in the longest period of one-party rule in the 20th century. But it was the Democrats, not the GOP, who benefited, in one of the most whopping instances of unintentional consequences in American political history.”

Reports Claim Alabama Governor Had an Affair

September 2, 2015 at 8:02 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 91 Comments

Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley (R) engaged in an extramarital affair with his former communications director, leading First Lady Dianne Bentley to file for divorce last Friday after 50 years of marriage, sources tell Legal Schnauzer.

Birmingham News: “Several media outlets – bloggers and radio talkers – this morning cited ‘sources’ as they reported that Gov. Robert Bentley has without question had an affair with a female staff member, a torrid love cuddle that caused the governor’s wife of a half century, Dianne Bentley, to file for divorce and ask for everything the guy ever made.”

Bonus Trump Quote of the Day

September 2, 2015 at 4:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 124 Comments

“I like Jeb. He’s a nice man. But he should really set the example by speaking English while in the United States.”

— Donald Trump, in an interview with Breitbart.

Why Is Jeb Bush Going After Donald Trump?

September 2, 2015 at 4:31 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 24 Comments

Molly Ball: “The other candidates who’ve gone after Trump aggressively (Lindsey Graham, Rick Perry, Rand Paul) haven’t exactly soared in the polls. Trump is like an electric fence that the candidates keep running at, only to get zapped and fall back.”

“On the other hand, supporters of the strategy say, somebody had to do it—Trump isn’t going away on his own. And Bush risked looking weak if he left Trump’s attacks, which were essentially shots at his manhood, unanswered. Bush isn’t trying to win over Trump’s supporters, who are unlikely ever to favor him; he’s trying to consolidate the two-thirds of the party that dislikes Trump and wants to see the bully knocked down. And he’s trying to reassure his nervous donors—you know, the ones who’ve already poured $100 million into his candidacy—that he has some fire in the belly.”

Trump and Clinton Maintain Wide Leads in Iowa

September 2, 2015 at 4:28 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 32 Comments

A new Gravis Marketing poll in Iowa finds Donald Trump leading the GOP pack with 32%, followed by Ben Carson at 16%, Ted Cruz at 7%, Marco Rubio at 6%, Scott Walker at 6%, Bobby Jindal at 5% and Carly Fiorina at 5%.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads with 45%, followed by Bernie Sanders at 17%, Joe Biden at 13% and Martin O’Malley at 5%.

Trump Torments Bush

September 2, 2015 at 4:17 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 29 Comments

Jeb Bush said “that he would run for president only if he could do so with a sunny spirit, but Mr. Trump, the surprise leader in the polls, has turned this summer into a miserable one for Mr. Bush, gleefully ignoring the traditional rules of political engagement,” the New York Times reports.

“There is the personal ridicule — constantly questioning Mr. Bush’s vigor, invoking a since-retracted statement by his mother, Barbara Bush, that ‘we’ve had enough Bushes’ in the White House, and even alluding to his wife’s Mexican heritage in discussing immigration. But the torment goes deeper than that. Emphasizing bluster over ideas, Mr. Trump has turned the campaign into a tabloid-style clash of personalities, heavy on provocation and insults. What little policy that has been discussed mostly revolves around Mr. Trump’s appeals to anxious white conservatives: stoking fears about immigrants, gang members and foreign countries that, in his telling, are eclipsing America.”

“It is a race, in other words, that embodies what Mr. Bush likes least about politics.”

Perry Has No Campaign Staff Left in New Hampshire

September 2, 2015 at 4:12 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 56 Comments

Rick Perry’s campaign organization in New Hampshire has dissolved, WMUR reports.

Veteran strategist Michael Dennehy said that “while he still considers himself a strong supporter of the Republican presidential candidate, he no longer considers himself an advisor to the campaign. He said he has not been paid by the campaign since June and has not heard from Perry or anyone from Perry’s national campaign for the past month.”

Trump’s Success Makes Romney Want to Run Again

September 2, 2015 at 2:07 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 140 Comments

“As Donald Trump continues to dominate the Republican presidential race, frustration and panic have become high enough to make some inside the party Establishment pine for a candidate they roundly rejected as recently as January: Mitt Romney,” according to Gabriel Sherman.

Said on Romney insider: “Mitt wants to run. He never stopped wanting to run. These guys like Walker and Perry, they were big deals in their states, but you get them onto the national stage and it’s a different story. It’s like they were in middle school, and now they’re freshmen in high school and they’re getting their faces slammed in the toilets.”

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Machine Politics: “Machine politics” is a phenomenon sometimes seen in an urban political context, especially in the 19th and 20th centuries.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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