“I think I’m going to win – this will surprise you – I’m going to win Hispanics, and I think I’m going to win the African-American vote. Because I create jobs and they want jobs.”
— Donald Trump, interviewed on Morning Joe.
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Christie Shares Too Much Information
“Chris Christie uses birth control — and not the rhythm method,” the Washington Post reports.
“That’s the cringe-worthy revelation the New Jersey governor and 2016 GOP presidential candidate made at a town hall Tuesday morning.”
Trump Changes Voicemail Into an Ad
Donald Trump has turned the tables on Gawker. After the online site published of Donald Trump’s cellphone numbers, the GOP presidential candidate changed his voicemail, ABC News reports.
The new recording: “Hi, this is Donald Trump and I’m running for the presidency of the United States of America. With your help and support, together we can make America truly great again! Visit me at twitter @realDonaldTrump and check out my campaign website at www.donaldtrump.com Hope to see you on the campaign trail, we’re going to do it!”
Marco Rubio Has a Lot of Upside
First Read: “Here’s a final point on the 2016 race when it comes to our NBC/WSJ poll: Marco Rubio still has tons of potential. Despite being in 8th place in our GOP horse race at 5% among GOP primary voters, 62% of these Republicans say they can see themselves supporting Rubio, versus 29% who can’t (+33).”
“That’s a higher margin than any of the other 2016 Republicans on this scale: Walker (+30), Carson (+22), Bush (+17), Cruz (+14), Huckabee (+9), and Fiorina (+2). Where is Donald Trump? He’s at minus-2 on this scale, though that’s better than Christie (-18) and Lindsey Graham (-53).”
Santorum Already Reshuffles Staff
“Several top staffers have left Rick Santorum’s campaign to create a new super PAC, a move spurred by the cash-strapped candidate’s anemic fundraising,” Politico reports.
“Campaign manager Terry Allen, Iowa state coordinator Jon Jones and digital strategist Steve Hilliard — Allen’s son-in-law — departed several weeks ago, leaving the winner of the 2012 Iowa Caucuses without a campaign manager and raising questions about whether Santorum can last until Iowa votes on Feb. 1 next year.”
The Latest on Wonk Wire
Donald Trump Is Totally Dominating the GOP Race
Rick Klein: “Donald Trump is so much of the story right now that when he doesn’t show up at a candidate forum, there’s almost no story at all. Monday night’s pre-debate show in New Hampshire struggled to find a rhythm, as if the fact that a certain candidate’s name never got mentioned robbed the participants of their focal point.”
“As the top 10 candidates get their debate invites from Fox on Tuesday, with 3 percent support looking like the bar to clear, it’s worth calculating that the frontrunner has enough support to earn seven or eight podium spots. Yes, that’s Mr. Trump, who now doesn’t need to exaggerate to claim that he’s leading essentially every poll, national and state.”
“It may be time to change assumptions about Trump, whose numbers aren’t peaking as many GOP leaders had assumed or hoped. Expecting Trump to implode seems like less of a sure bet – which means his rivals may actually need him on some stages for a while.”
Here’s Who Should Make the GOP Debate Cut
A slew of polls have been released in the last 24 hours and First Read crunches the latest numbers to see which candidates make the top 10 for the first GOP debate on Thursday night:
- Trump: 23.2%
- Bush: 12.8%
- Walker: 10.6%
- Carson: 6.6%
- Huckabee: 6.6%
- Cruz: 6.2%
- Rubio: 5.2%
- Paul: 4.8%
- Christie: 3.4%
- Kasich: 2.8%
Not making the cut:
- Perry: 2.0%
- Santorum: 1.4%
- Jindal: 1.2%
- Fiorina: 1.0%
- Graham: 0.4%
- Pataki: 0.2%
- Gilmore: 0.2%
Why Not Making Debate Cut Could Be Opportunity
Byron York suggests not making the cut for the first GOP debate might by an opportunity for the low-ranking hopefuls who take part in the earlier “kids’ debate.”
One reason: “Donald Trump won’t be involved. The top ten debate is in grave danger of becoming the Trump show. Even top GOP candidates’ performances will be evaluated relative to Trump, making it harder for them to make a good impression on their own.”
Another: “The second-tier debate will be less personality-driven, meaning it will more likely focus on substance, and on the single goal most important to GOP audiences: defeating Hillary Clinton. Republican voters like candidates who concentrate more on beating Democrats than bickering with each other.”
Trump Quote of the Day
“But we have to negotiate great trade deals. I would get the best guys — Carl Icahn is a friend of mine. I’d say Carl, congratulations, handle China. I’d get other guys like Carl. I’d say, good luck, here’s Japan. Believe me, we will do so well. We will make so much.”
— Donald Trump, in an interview on Morning Joe.
Trump Surges to Lead in New Hampshire
The latest WMUR Granite State Poll finds Donald Trump is the top choice of 24% of likely GOP primary voters, doubling the support of Jeb Bush at 12% and Scott Walker at 11%, the only other candidate in double digits.
Key findings: “Not only has Trump surged to the head of the pack in New Hampshire, but also for the first time, he is now viewed favorably by more likely GOP primary voters than unfavorably. And, he is named as the candidate best able to handle key issues facing the nation, from the economy to terrorism, and from immigration to health care policy.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“It violates the essence of what made America a great country in its political system. Now it’s just an oligarchy with unlimited political bribery being the essence of getting the nominations for president or being elected president. And the same thing applies to governors, and U.S. Senators and congress members.”
– Former President Jimmy Carter, quoted by the Huffington Post.
Walker Punked In New Hampshire
Washington Post: “Maybe it should have been a tip-off that the two 20-somethings were so overly excited to meet Scott Walker. Like dramatically excited. The young woman was literally bouncing with excitement. And the young man had a homemade sign declaring that the Republican governor should become president.”
“As Scott Walker smiled and put his arms around Tyler McFarland, 23, and Giselle Hart, 20, the sign flipped. Suddenly Walker was posing with a fake, game-show-style check made out to him from the billionaire Koch brothers, Charles Koch and David Koch, who plan to spend $889 million on the upcoming election.”
Starbucks CEO Urged to Challenge Clinton
High-powered friends of Starbucks’ CEO Howard Schultz are reportedly eager to anoint him as a challenger to Hillary Clinton, Fortune reports.
“It would mark a shift for Schultz if he does enter the presidential ring. In an interview with Time in February, Schultz was adamant that he would not run for President in 2016: ‘I don’t think that is a solution. I don’t think it ends well,’ he said in the story. He threw a cautious endorsement of Clinton, saying he was content to ‘see what Hillary does.'”
More Polls Show Trump on Top Nationally
A new CBS News/New York Times poll shows Donald Trump continuing to lead the crowded field of candidates with support of 24% of prospective Republican primary voters, followed by Jeb Bush at 13% and Scott Walker at 10%.
A new Bloomberg poll finds Trump at 21%, Bush at 10% and Walker at 8%.
Biden Challenge Faces High Hurdles
“Vice President Biden would have to clear high hurdles to defeat Hillary Clinton if he launched a bid for the Democratic presidential nomination,” The Hill reports.
“The biggest one? Carving out a niche — and a reason for his candidacy — in a race that is being dominated by the former secretary of State.”
Quote of the Day
“The first thing I’m probably going to do is catch up on my sleep. I’ll probably do that for a couple of months.”
— President Obama, quoted by The Hill, on his post-presidential plans.
Rick Perry Unlikely to Make Debate Cut
Politico: “It appears increasingly unlikely that Rick Perry will get a chance to atone for his disastrous 2012 debate performance — or attack his 2016 nemesis, Donald Trump — when Republicans spar for the first time Thursday in Cleveland.”
