Even though Donald Trump leads in every poll, the Huffington Post “is doubling down on its decision to banish coverage of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign to its entertainment section, saying it is ‘more committed to the decision than ever,'” The Hill reports.
Trump Is Now Running to Win
Greg Sargent: “The sight of Donald Trump rolling out a new, and highly specific, immigration plan has been more than a little unsettling: It shows that Trump is now genuinely playing in the GOP primaries to win, and reveals in stark relief how exactly he intends to go about doing that.”
“Trump’s plan to combat illegal immigration — unveiled yesterday — may make it harder to avoid reckoning with the real source of Trump’s appeal to his supporters. If his lead among GOP primary voters continues, it will challenge the platitudes about how it is rooted in their desire to see ‘disruptions’ or in their general dissatisfaction with the political establishment.”
The Hill: “Trump is showing more confidence about his chances of winning the party’s nomination and the presidency in 2016.”
Trump Maintains Huge National Lead
A new Morning Consult survey finds Donald Trump maintaining his standing at 32%, far ahead of Jeb Bush at 12%, followed by Ben Carson at 7%, Mike Huckabee at 6%, Marco Rubio at 6%, Ted Cruz at 5%, Carly Fiorina at 4%, Chris Christie at 4% and Rand Paul at 4%.
Trump Is Dragging the GOP Where It Doesn’t Want to Go
Jonathan Chait: “Trump has already endured numerous mortifying gaffes, by ordinary standards, and an apparently unsuccessful effort by Fox News to destroy his standing within the party during a highly visible televised debate. He will not run out of money. He can, and probably will, take his candidacy all the way to the end.”
“The worst-case scenario for Republicans is if Trump decides to run a third-party campaign. Even managing to get his name on the ballot in a handful of states would bring victory out of reach for the GOP’s eventual nominee. The best-case scenario is that Trump straggles through the race, eventually supporting the nominee. But this scenario is also far from ideal. It means that Trump has shaped the tenor of the race in almost precisely the opposite way the party establishment had hoped.”
Clinton Reluctantly Begins to Rely on Super PACs
New York Times: “Mrs. Clinton’s allied super PACs, mindful that to resist the tide is to drown, are soliciting giant donations in earnest now, with her blessing. But the disparity, which has worried many Democrats, also has to do with the ambivalence, or outright disdain, that Mrs. Clinton’s donors say they feel, and that some say they have picked up from her, about the role that super PACs should play… That early discomfort points to the adjustment the Clintons and their vast circles of donors are having to make to the sharply altered fund-raising environment since the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision in 2010.”
Feingold Holds Solid Lead in Wisconsin
A new Luntz Global (R) poll in Wisconsin shows Russ Feingold (D) leading Sen. Ron Johnson (R) by eight points in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 42%.
Kasich Was for the Iraq War Before He Was Against It
Gov. John Kasich told CNN he never would have taken the United States to war in Iraq.
Said Kasich: “I would never have committed ourselves to Iraq.”
But in November 2002, Kasich, then a former congressman, made a very different argument: “We should go to war with Iraq. It’s not likely that (Saddam) Hussein will give up his weapons. If he did he would be disgraced in the Arab world.”
The Latest on Wonk Wire
Bonus Quote of the Day
“I’ll remind you that my dad in 1980 was probably an asterisk at this point. And last time around, there were candidates that were winning at this point that never even made it to the starting line.”
— Jeb Bush, quoted by the Los Angeles Times.
Watch for GOP Reaction to Trump’s immigration Plan
First Read: “Donald Trump’s policy position on immigration — all undocumented immigrants must leave the country, no birthright citizenship, Mexico must pay for a border wall (and it will be penalized if it doesn’t do so) — is a big deal, because it will force the rest of the GOP field to react. Do they, too, believe that all undocumented immigrants must be deported, as Trump said on “Meet the Press” yesterday? Do they, too, believe that children of undocumented immigrants born in the U.S. shouldn’t become citizens? Do they, too, believe that the U.S. should increase 1) fees on all temporary visas issued to Mexicans and 2) other fees and tariffs if Mexico doesn’t build its wall? If anything, Trump provided very CLEAR answers on the thorny subject of immigration. Can his opponents respond as clearly?”
Is It Too Late for Joe Biden?
First Read: “Every day that Biden waits to create a fundraising apparatus (to finance a sitting vice presidential — with his security detail in tow — campaigning across the country) makes it harder for him to compete against Bernie Sanders, let alone Hillary Clinton. A Biden confidante told one of us that the vice president’s chances of jumping into the race are now as high as 60%-40%. But if he gets in, Biden faces this reality: His chances of finishing third are greater than finishing first.”
“Also over the weekend, Politico wrote that Biden, if he gets into the 2016 race, plans to focus on South Carolina, plus get big Super PAC checks from a handful of wealthy Democratic donors. But folks, that’s more of a campaign strategy for the likes of Rick Santorum and Rick Perry — rather than a sitting vice president. Bottom line: Sitting vice presidents don’t get to skip early nominating states.”
Quote of the Day
“I think abortion is an important issue, but I think there’s many other issues that are really critical. Early childhood. Infant mortality. The environment. Education. I think we focus too much on just one issue, and now that the issue of gay marriage is kind of off the table, we’re kind of down to one social issue.”
— Gov. John Kasich (R), quoted by CNN.
A Trumped GOP Field
Rick Klein: “A new Fox News poll – the first major post-debate poll – shows Trump comfortably out front in the GOP race for president, securing a quarter of votes in the primary. The next two candidates nearly match him if you combine their numbers: Ben Carson with 12 percent, and Ted Cruz with 10. You want to know why Trump’s message is resonating? That’s nearly half the primary electorate split between those three men, backing two candidates who’ve never run for office, and a third who’s defined his time in the Senate by attempts to buck the institution and its leaders.”
“Jeb Bush is in danger of becoming a second-tier candidate, if he stays in the single digits for long before his super PAC starts unloading. Scott Walker and Mike Huckabee are right behind them, following by Carly Fiorina (another political outsider), a surging John Kasich, and Marco Rubio. Chris Christie and Rand Paul may have to continue their debate fight off stage in the hopes of becoming the last candidate to make the Top 10 at next month’s debate. August is far from February – but a campaign is finding a rhythm that Trump is banging out just about by himself at the moment.”
Trump Quote of the Day
“I am Batman.”
— Donald Trump, quoted by CNN, to a young boy while giving him a helicopter ride at the Iowa State Fair.
Trump Wins Over Conservatives Without Typical Red Meat
Melina Henneberger notes that “very little of what the conservatives in the hall were going wild over could be characterized as conservative, and most of it wasn’t political at all: The 54-minute address included zero mentions of taxes, the deficit, profligate spending, abortion, or any social issue, unless you count his inscrutable promise to ‘help on women’s health issues more than anybody, including on the Democratic side, you watch.'”
“And he also says not only that we should never have gone into Iraq, but that we were better off with Saddam Hussein in charge there… No, this is not an unheard-of view, but it is one that has generally been heard only from Democrats. Yet when the Republican front-runner says these things now—that we have nothing whatsoever to show for all the blood spilled there—many heads nod.”
Wonk Wire: Is Trump a moderate?
Trump Unveils Plan to Combat Illegal Immigration
“After staking his early campaign on caustic and contentious remarks about undocumented immigrants, Donald J. Trump on Sunday outlined his plan to fix the country’s immigration system and deal with people who are in the country illegally,” the New York Times reports.
Wall Street Journal: “The positions, outlined Sunday in a television appearance and Mr. Trump’s first campaign policy paper, fill in some policy details to what so far has been a candidacy driven by free-form television appearances and flashy rallies. Now, Mr. Trump will outline his stances on several other issues in papers that will roll out in the next few weeks, his campaign spokeswoman said.”
Obama Prepares for His Future
New York Times: “Publicly, Mr. Obama betrays little urgency about his future. Privately, he is preparing for his postpresidency with the same fierce discipline and fund-raising ambition that characterized the 2008 campaign that got him to the White House.”
“The long-running dinner this past February is part of a methodical effort taking place inside and outside the White House as the president, first lady and a cadre of top aides map out a postpresidential infrastructure and endowment they estimate could cost as much as $1 billion. The president’s aides did not ask any of the guests for library contributions after the dinner, but a number of those at the table could be donors in the future.”
Donors Not Interested in Biden Running
“As Joe Biden considers a possible run for president, the donors he’d need to be viable appear to be ruling him out,” Politico reports.
“Not all 400 people who gathered at a waterfront estate here on Sunday have been die-hard supporters of Hillary Clinton. In fact, many of them recall a rough summer eight years ago when Martha’s Vineyard’s liberal elite split their loyalties between Clinton and Barack Obama. But on Sunday, they were reveling in party unity and had little appetite for Biden to complicate the field, despite their affection for him.”
The Fix: “If he decides at the end of this month that he wants to run, he immediately begins in a $45 million (and probably much larger) hole against Clinton. Super PACs could make up some of that ground, but remember that virtually every major fundraiser in the party — including many who were once Biden people — is now on Clinton’s team. So whatever Biden raises, Clinton almost certainly raises double. Maybe triple.”
