A new Morning Consult poll finds Donald Trump leading the GOP primary pack with 37%, followed by Jeb Bush and Ben Carson at 9% each, Marco Rubio and Mike Huckabee at 6% each and Scott Walker at 5%.

Wonk Wire: Does Trump’s surge lock in his nomination?

Molly Ball: “Biden’s calculation is threefold: emotional, political, and logistical. Amid the continuing toll of his son Beau’s untimely death, hurling himself into a campaign promises more trouble and hurt. But saying ‘no; would entail its own grieving process, as the lifelong pol closed the door for good on his political career, without having achieved his life’s goal.”

First Read: “During the last three presidential cycles (2004, 2008, 2012), the winners of August didn’t go on to capture the presidential nomination. In 2004, the undisputed winner of the summer was Howard Dean, who ultimately finished third in Iowa and won only his home state of Vermont in the 2004 primaries. In 2008, Hillary Clinton was crushing Barack Obama in the August before the nominating contests, while John McCain was essentially given up for dead during that summer. And in 2012, the August winners were Michele Bachmann (who won the Iowa Straw Poll) and Rick Perry (who soared in the polls after his presidential launch).”

“Now if Trump/Carson/Sanders end winning in February and capture their party’s nomination, we’ll look back on this August as the turning points for them. But if they don’t, they’ll join Dean, Hillary, Romney, Rudy, Bachmann, and Perry.”