Nate Silver: “There’s a near-perfect correlation, in fact between how much news coverage a candidate has received and where they rank in recent national polls… The causality here is murky. Do candidates receive more news coverage because they’re polling well? Or do they poll well because they receive more news coverage? Undoubtedly, there’s some of both, which creates the possibility of a feedback loop.”
The preliminary Republican presidential debate, featuring candidates who trail in the polls, begins at 5 p.m. ET on Fox News. Use the comments to share your views and impressions.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell “dismissed the growing talk that the fight over Planned Parenthood might result in a government shutdown come Oct. 1 — nor, he said, would he allow a default on the debt,” Roll Call reports.
Said McConnnell: “Yeah, we’ll fund the government. I can’t tell you what will finally end up in or out of a government funding bill, but I can tell you without fear of contradiction there will be no government shutdown.”
“The federal charges announced against Jesse Benton mark a jarring, high-profile flameout for the long-serving Rand Paul adviser and top-flight Republican operative who was hailed until recently as a rising star in the party — a grim political trajectory that many in Paul’s orbit now tell BuzzFeed News their candidate seems doomed to follow.”
“In interviews Wednesday with more than half a dozen people close to Paul — including current staffers, top fundraisers, and key allies — Benton’s indictment was cited as evidence of deeply rooted problems in Rand Paul’s campaign, from organizational dysfunction, to personal failures of judgment by the candidate himself.”
One of the senator’s aides called the situation “a total mess” and added, “I don’t think there’s any coming back from this.”
The DNC released its presidential debate schedule, “an arrangement that Hillary Clinton’s rivals are likely to criticize as favoring Mrs. Clinton. Only four of the six debates that the DNC will sanction will be held before the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses, a move that limits the air time for Mrs. Clinton’s opponents, who have far less money than her to spend on ads,” the New York Times reports.
“The first Democratic debate will be held in Nevada on Oct. 13 and hosted by CNN. The next one is Nov. 14, in Iowa, hosted by CBS, KCCI and the Des Moines Register. Next is Dec. 19, in Manchester, N.H., hosted by ABC and WMUR, and then Jan. 17, in Charleston, S.C., hosted by NBC and the Congressional Black Caucus Institute… The final two debates have not been set – both are listed as in either ‘February or March,’ and will be co-hosted by Univision and the Washington Post in Miami, and then by PBS in Wisconsin.”
First Read has a very good rundown of what to look for at tonight’s Republican presidential debate:
The debate starts at 9 p.m. ET on Fox News.
“I don’t want to attack anybody and maybe I’ll be attacked and maybe not. I’d rather just discuss the issues. If I’m attacked I have to, you know, do something back, but I’d like it to be very civil.”
— Donald Trump, quoted by Newsweek, on tonight’s GOP presidential debate.
Matt Bai: “What Biden is, even to those who dismiss him as slightly doddering and in over his head, is as real and authentic as they come…With Biden, you get the politically incorrect verbal lapses, the Veep-like comedic value. But you also get warmth and authenticity and a handshake that means something.”
“Clinton’s pitch is pretty much the polar opposite…Clinton’s first TV ad, released this week, tried to humanize her a bit by having her talk straight to camera about her mother…But Siri sounds more spontaneous when she’s finding me a gas station. Clinton’s team should probably take a moment to survey the wreckage of recent presidential campaigns that seemed immensely promising until the candidates themselves showed up and ruined everything. Al Gore, John Kerry, Mitt Romney and, yes, Hillary Clinton circa 2008 — all of them met the moment perfectly in terms of résumé and experience but lost to candidates who seemed more authentically themselves.”
First Read points out the most fascinating polling result from the recent NBC/WSJ polls tracking the Republicans who say they couldn’t support Donald Trump:
“Tonight’s debate will help determine if that trend continues. Or does it stop?”
Rolling Stone has the rules and this warning: “Please do not drink yourself or anyone else to death.”
Josh Green: “Until recently, Americans mentally categorized Trump as a celebrity entertainer and interpreted his madcap antics and controversial pronouncements accordingly. But on Thursday, voters will experience Trump in a much different context: as the standard-bearer of the Republican Party, who not only leads the presidential field by a wide margin but, as a new Bloomberg Politics poll shows, has a powerful appeal to every segment of the Republican electorate.”
Rick Klein: “The Trump problem – or among the Trump problems – is that there are two competing schools of thought among those advising the candidates, each arguing for exactly different strategies. One says that it’s time to press and scrutinize him, and that the candidate or candidates who play the anti-Trump cards strongest will be remembered and rewarded for that. The other says that Trump is likely to collapse courtesy of his own mouth, and that other candidates should be focused on their own games without contributing to the Trump circus, or giving him any more publicity.”
“The fact that the two candidates who’ve been harshest toward Trump won’t even be at the main debate – Rick Perry and Lindsey Graham – could make for fewer fireworks surrounding the Donald. But it’s impossible to imagine headlines Friday morning that don’t focus on Trump. For his rivals, the question becomes whether they want to be part of them, or content with being sidebars.”
“Candidates usually spend hours and hours preparing for a major debate — reading up the issues, going through practice Q & A sessions or mock debates and practicing lines to use when the big moment comes. Not Donald Trump,” ABC News reports.
Said one senior adviser: “Trump doesn’t rehearse… I have no idea what to expect. I’m just as clueless as you about what he’ll do.”
“It’s not that his political team hasn’t tried. Trump’s aides have prepared him memos on the issues and the expected lines of questions and potential attacks from the other candidates, but there have been no formal debate prep sessions, no mock Q & A, no practice debates.”
Gov. Scott Walker “won a surprising nod in an informal straw poll of major conservative donors gathered by the Koch brothers’ operation last weekend in Orange County, California,” Politico reports.
“In a closed-door session that included about 100 donors, Republican pollster Frank Luntz asked donors to clap to indicate their choice for the Republican Party’s nomination. While Luntz did not formally track or announce the results, sources say it was clear that Walker got the most applause, followed by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who received roughly the same amount of applause.”
The Upshot: “The candidate who wins the invisible primary usually wins the nomination. Even when he doesn’t, the eventual nominee tends to be a candidate who was a close runner-up. Why? The support of party leaders is both a sign of a candidate’s long-term strength and a source of future strength.”
“For all that you may read about Donald Trump, Jeb Bush now leads the campaign, with the most endorsements and money, as well as top-three showings in the polls — which is reflected in the prediction markets, a kind of synthesis of the other data. But it is not a dominant lead, in part because of how few endorsements any candidate has yet received. After Mr. Bush is Scott Walker, who leads the Iowa polls.”
Wonk Wire: Context is important when considering polling numbers
Pat Buchanan gave advice to CNBC for each of the GOP presidential candidates.
“Seriously, what’s this guy’s problem?”
— Jeb Bush, quoted by Politico, talking to a donor about Donald Trump who he also called “a buffoon,” “clown” and “asshole.”
Only 10 of the top 50 Republican donors from the 2014 cycle “have so far contributed at least $1 million to the presidential hopefuls and the outside groups that can raise unlimited sums on their behalf,” Politico reports.
“Meanwhile, 45 deep-pocketed donors who didn’t give much in 2014 have stepped up and written those checks early in the race.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.