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The Washington Post Fact Checker finds Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-FL) claim that former President George W. Bush said himself that he would not have invaded Iraq is “simply false.”
“We can find no evidence to justify Rubio’s claim that former president Bush has said that he would not have invaded Iraq if he had known no weapons of mass destruction would have been found. Rather, he and most of his top aides have insisted that the invasion was still justified despite the failure to find such weapons… The former president has never suggested he would not have invaded Iraq if he had known there were no weapons of mass destruction; instead, as recently as 2014, he has insisted his decision to invade was correct.”
Welcome to @Twitter, @POTUS! One question: Does that username stay with the office? #askingforafriend
— Bill Clinton (@billclinton) May 18, 2015
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“Over the weekend, less than a month after the Supreme Court heard arguments on the constitutionality of same-sex marriage bans, Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg presided over the wedding of Shakespeare Theatre artistic director Michael Kahn and interior designer Charles Mitchem. According to New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd, a guest at the wedding, Ginsburg delivered her portion, including saying she was officiating by the power vested in her by the United States Constitution, ‘with a sly look and special emphasis on the word Constitution,;” MSNBC reports.
Wrote Dowd: “No one was sure if she was emphasizing her own beliefs or giving a hint to the outcome of the case the Supreme Court is considering whether to decide if same-sex marriage is constitutional.”
New York Times: “The quotations he posts, rarely pithy, are often sayings he thinks up in the shower. The photographs he puts up sometimes show him frowning, while others show him gazing oddly into the horizon. And he does not seem to care about the importance of videos. But somehow, Bernie Sanders, the 73-year-old senator from Vermont, has emerged as a king of social media early in the 2016 presidential campaign, amid a field of tech-savvy contenders.”
Rep. Frank Guinta (R-NH) “has apologized without admitting significant wrongdoing after the Federal Election Commission concluded he broke the law by accepting campaign donations from his parents,” the AP reports.
“In 2010, Guinta reported lending himself $355,000 and amended a disclosure form to add a previously unreported bank account… Over the years, Guinta flatly denied the money came from his parents or that it was an illegal campaign donation… But in an agreement made public last week, the FEC concluded that the money came from his parents’ bank accounts and fined him $15,000.”
Boston Globe: “If he resigns, it would trigger a special election for the US House amid the state’s first-in-the-nation presidential primary. If Guinta seeks reelection, he would very likely face a nasty primary fight and general election… If he decides not to run again, another Republican could run — and former Massachusetts US Senator Scott Brown just tweeted a picture of his new condo from Guinta’s district.”
Wonk Wire: A huge hit for some states
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) “formally launched a presidential exploratory committee, the clearest indication yet that he is gearing up for a White House run,” the Washington Post reports.
Said Jindal: “For some time now, my wife Supriya and I have been thinking and praying about whether to run for the Presidency of our great nation. If I run, my candidacy will be based on the idea that the American people are ready to try a dramatically different direction. Not a course correction, but a dramatically different path.”
The Fix: “Aside from simply pure name recognition, announcing that you will announce also primes the pump for donors who might not be aware of if/when you are getting in. Think of the announcement of an announcement as akin to pressing that little red button on your lawn mower a few times to get the gas flowing through the system before you try to start it. Or like a ‘save the date’ reminder for a wedding. You get the idea; it’s a way for Graham to get his planned announcement on the calendar of the political, donor and media world.”
“What the announcement of the announcement is not designed to do is increase the drama of what Graham will say. Because, everyone already knows what he will say.”
“I did stand up and defend the president, President Bush, that I did say I think any president, regardless of party, probably would’ve made a similar decision to what President Bush did at the time, with the information he had available.”
— Gov. Scott Walker, quoted by the Washington Post, vouching for George W. Bush’s decision-making on Iraq at the time of the invasion.
Sen. Lindsey Graham said he’ll announce his presidential plans June 1 — but seemed to have already made up his mind, CNN reports.
Said Graham: “I’m running because I think the world is falling apart. I’ve been more right than wrong on foreign policy. It’s not the fault of others or their lack of this or that that makes me want to run. It’s my ability in my own mind to be a good commander-in-chief and to make Washington work.”
Politico: “Since the average Republican is significantly older than the average Democrat, far more Republicans than Democrats have died since the 2012 elections. To make matters worse, the GOP is attracting fewer first-time voters. Unless the party is able to make inroads with new voters, or discover a fountain of youth, the GOP’s slow demographic slide will continue election to election. Actuarial tables make that part clear, but just how much of a problem for the GOP is this?”
“Since it appears that no political data geek keeps track of voters who die between elections, I took it upon myself to do some basic math. And that quick back-of-the-napkin math shows that the trend could have a real effect in certain states, and make a battleground states like Florida and Ohio even harder for the Republican Party to capture.”
Wonk Wire: The GOP’s fraternity of failure
My column in The Week: The GOP’s worst nightmare and a pundit’s dream
Bill Scher says Republicans should use money as the criterion for participation on the presidential debates: “Only let on stage the top 12 fundraisers.”
“Polls are lacking as a standard because people are constantly challenging their validity, and early polls mainly test name recognition among a broader group of voters who aren’t yet paying close attention. Crossing off names because of thin resumes is far too arbitrary, especially since voters are often partial to candidates who are fresh faces and lack baggage. Campaign events don’t mean much if no one shows up to them. And campaign staff levels are probably tightly correlated with money raised anyway.”
“But everyone knows money matters. Before the primaries begin, candidates always try to prove their worth by racking up dollars, and voters gauge candidate viability by tracking the dollars. They do this for good reason: Money is a proxy for determining breadth and depth of initial support, as well as assessing general election competitiveness. Why not embrace reality and formalize its importance in the debates?”
Politico: “Between his low standing in state polls, the socially conservative bent of the Iowa GOP base and his decision to skip the state’s straw poll in August, Bush has lots of incentives to give up on Iowa next year. Republicans here know it, which is why the former Florida governor spent his weekend reassuring them he hasn’t already written off the state as a lost cause.”
First Read: “As we wrote last week, history has proved that serious candidates can’t afford to skip it — because it’s a general-election battleground state. Maybe more importantly, in a big and well-financed field, it’s possible you could win the Iowa caucuses by getting just ONE-FIFTH of the vote… It’s more than possible, in 2016, that the winning percentage could be lower than Santorum’s 24.6%. And if money isn’t an issue for Jeb, why not compete?”
The New York Times reports the Clintons “have now earned more than $125 million on the circuit since leaving the White House in 2001.”
“The Clintons’ riches have already become a subject of political attacks, and her campaign has been eager to showcase Mrs. Clinton as a more down-to-earth figure. Her only declared Democratic opponent at this point, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, is an avowed socialist, while Republicans like Senator Marco Rubio of Florida and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin have considerably more modest means.”
Associated Press: “In the past five years, roughly a dozen states have enacted laws barring local governments from requiring businesses to provide paid sick leave to employees. The number of states banning local minimum wages has grown to 15. And while oil-rich states such as Texas and Oklahoma are pursuing bills banning local restrictions on drilling, other states where agriculture is big business have been banning local limitations on the types of seeds sown for crops.”
The New York Times says there’s a big risk in Hillary Clinton avoiding taking questions from the media.
“Mrs. Clinton, who has campaigned lightly in what aides have called a ‘slow ramp-up,’ can’t afford to appear as if she is taking things for granted. And she has historically needed a long runway in her campaigns, but the longer she goes without taking reporters’ questions, the less recovery time she has from any mistakes.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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