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Running for President Isn’t Always a Good Idea

May 7, 2015 at 7:26 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

Matt Lewis: “As the latest wave of presidential candidates enters what will likely be a huge Republican field, something occurs to me: It has almost become conventional wisdom that running for president is a ‘win-win’ proposition—that, at the very least, you increase your visibility by virtue running. At least, that seems to be how modern candidates view it. And there certainly are examples where this is true. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, for example, was able to parlay a surprisingly strong 2008 run into larger celebrity (and his own Fox News show!).”

“Let’s consider the 2012 GOP field, which included Rick Perry, Jon Huntsman, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, and of course Mitt Romney… You tell me—are they better off now than they were four years ago?”

It’s Anyone’s Guess in Britain

May 7, 2015 at 7:02 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 51 Comments

Justin Wolfers: “British voters are heading to the polls Thursday, and it looks as if it’s going to be a nail-biter. Political prediction markets suggest that it’s basically a 50-50 bet as to whether the Conservative prime minister, David Cameron, will serve another term or be ousted by Labour’s leader, Ed Miliband. I can recall very few elections where the bookies couldn’t pick a favorite by election eve.”

“The traditional two-party system is breaking down in Britain, which makes the outcome more uncertain because it renders traditional approaches to predicting the outcome less useful. Multiparty elections bring a type of complexity that traditional polling — and computer models based on polling — are ill-equipped to deal with.”

Washington Post: “After a bitter, bruising and unusually fragmented six-week election campaign, British voters began to vote Thursday knowing just one thing with near certainty: Nobody is going to win.”

The final pre-election Guardian/ICM poll shows Labour witha a one point lead.

Clinton Embraces a Super PAC

May 7, 2015 at 7:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

Hillary Clinton “will begin personally courting donors for a ‘super PAC’ supporting her candidacy, the first time a Democratic presidential candidate has fully embraced these independent groups that can accept unlimited checks from big donors and are already playing a major role in the 2016 race,” the New York Times reports.

“Her decision is another escalation in what is expected to be the most expensive presidential race in history, and it has the potential to transform the balance of power in presidential campaigning, where Republican outside groups have tended to outspend their Democratic counterparts.”

Los Angeles Times: “Clinton, who has emphasized campaign finance reform in the early stage of her latest White House bid, has apparently already decided the modest approach alone won’t be enough. She is going after much bigger checks, much sooner, and in a much more aggressive way than her campaign had revealed.”


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Santorum Will Announce Later This Month

May 7, 2015 at 6:43 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 16 Comments

Rick Santorum told Fox News that he will announce whether he will run for president in 2016 on May 27 in Butler, Pennsylvania where he grew up.

Said Santorum: “It was a great campaign last time. We were clearly the underdog and we are starting out as looking at this race and we would be in the same position and so we are very comfortable there.”

First Read: “Santorum clearly doesn’t want to be pigeon-holed only as a social conservative this time around. He’s been spending more time talking up his blue-collar economic populism and foreign policy hawkishness than on cultivating the culture warrior-image that he was originally known for. But it was still mostly his values-voters pitch that helped him break through in Iowa in 2012, and that lane has gotten significantly more crowded this cycle.”

Americans Open to Softer Immigration Policy

May 7, 2015 at 6:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

A new Associated Press-GfK poll finds Americans “appear open to a softer immigration policy than Republican presidential candidates have preached in the past. Even a majority of Republicans in the country can see themselves voting for someone who would protect millions of immigrants from deportation.”

“The poll was conducted before Democrat Hillary Clinton’s effort this week to magnify the difference between letting people who are in the country illegally have legal status, which some Republicans support, and letting them gain citizenship, which she supports. The poll suggests that people don’t see much difference.”

Christie Achievement About to be Dismantled

May 7, 2015 at 6:08 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

Gov. Chris Christie’s “signature achievement as New Jersey governor may be going up in smoke,” Politico reports.

“The potential presidential candidate has said his ‘biggest governmental victory’ was a 2011 law meant to fix once and for all New Jersey’s notoriously bloated and insolvent public pension system by imposing deep cuts. But on Wednesday Christie’s administration argued before the state Supreme Court that the law was unconstitutional, in a complex maneuver to defend $1.57 billion in additional pension cuts that appear to have violated its terms. If the court upholds a February lower-court judgment against Christie, as seems likely, the cash-strapped state must scramble to find the money before July 1.”

GOP Budget Claims Don’t Add Up

May 6, 2015 at 7:03 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 33 Comments

“On paper and in speeches, Republicans boast that Congress’ first budget since they won control of the Senate and House last fall will eliminate red ink within a decade. Actually, it will do nothing of the sort,” the AP reports.

“That’s because the budget itself is nonbinding and, on its own, has no effect on spending. And also because Republicans have decided against using unique budget rules for follow-up legislation to save the trillions of dollars from food stamps, Medicaid and other benefit programs that would be needed to erase red ink. To do that would spark a pitched political battle with Democrats, a veto from President Barack Obama — and a possible backlash from the voters in 2016.”

Jeb Bush Bets on Peaking Late

May 6, 2015 at 7:01 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 26 Comments

During a closed-door presentation for donors last month, Bush strategist Mike Murphy “dismissed buzz-fueled candidates who rise fast early only to flame out once the primaries begin. Murphy ridiculed the early spate of presidential polls — many of which show Bush lagging, particularly in Iowa — as ‘noise meters.’ And he insisted that the Bush team is patiently playing a long game, one that will not be upended by the actions of his rivals,” the Washington Post reports.

“Murphy’s talk was aimed in part at quieting pockets of anxiety that have been percolating among Bush supporters who are beginning to worry whether he can excite Republicans in the same way that many of his younger rivals are already doing.”

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

May 6, 2015 at 5:37 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

“I just work here. I don’t know.”

— Bill Clinton, quoted by the Weekly Standard, on why he isn’t spending more time defending the Clinton Foundation.

British Election Unlikely to Yield Clear Winner

May 6, 2015 at 4:33 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 4 Comments

“The U.K. will hold one of its most unpredictable elections in decades Thursday, and with no clear winner likely, the stage is set for days of political horse-trading to determine the country’s next leader,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The U.K. has traditionally seen government pass between the two main parties—the Conservatives, currently led by Prime Minister David Cameron, and the Labour Party, led by Ed Miliband. But the latest polls suggest that neither will win a majority of seats in Parliament—and may need more than one other party to cobble one together.”

Clinton’s Inner Circle Revealed

May 6, 2015 at 4:27 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 3 Comments

Bloomberg: “The document, a draft memo from campaign manager Robby Mook dated April 21, includes lists of staffers who make up the initial roster of a daily 9 a.m. conference call for senior aides and a thrice-weekly 8 a.m. strategy session. A top campaign official, who confirmed the names on the lists, says that as the operation has ramped up, the strategy calls have taken place regularly, while the senior staff call has been more sporadic.”

“While the lists reflect the core participants, other advisers have at times been included. Aides expect the makeup of both calls to shift over time. Still, the document offers insight into Clinton’s starting lineup as she embarks on her second presidential journey–a snapshot of the high command as her campaign launches.”

Jindal’s New Book Will Offer Lessons from History

May 6, 2015 at 4:23 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 21 Comments

Coming this fall: American Will: The Forgotten Choices that Changed Our Republic by Gov. Bobby Jindal.

In a statement, the AP notes Jindal called the book a work of history and “a call to arms” for the future as he reviews events ranging from the Louisiana Purchase to the Cold War.

Clinton Sets an Immigration Trap for Republicans

May 6, 2015 at 1:24 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 108 Comments

Jonathan Chait: “Yesterday, Hillary Clinton surprised immigration advocates, and nearly everybody else, by taking an unexpectedly liberal stance on executive action and comprehensive reform. There’s no reason to doubt that Clinton, like most Democrats, genuinely believes in the humanitarian and economic merits of these policies. But it is also a power play that demonstrates how swiftly the immigration issue has moved in her party’s favor, and how she plans to box in her opponents.”

Rand Paul Paid $100K for RandPaul.com

May 6, 2015 at 1:16 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 16 Comments

Days before Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) launched his bid for president, his campaign shelled out more than $100,000 to a domain-buying firm to purchase the domain name RandPaul.com, according to National Journal.

“The payment is an enormous sum even in the murky world of political cybersquatting… Patrick Ruffini, a veteran GOP digital strategist, said that he had never heard of a campaign paying so much for a URL, though he was not shocked.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

May 6, 2015 at 12:48 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 40 Comments

“It’s OK to question your government. I do it on a regular basis. But the military is something else. Our military is quite trustworthy. The civilian leadership, you can always question that, but not the men and women in uniform.”

— Rick Perry, quoted by the Dallas Morning News, on Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) questioning of Jade Helm 15 military training exercises.

Netanyahu Struggles to Form Coalition

May 6, 2015 at 11:29 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 28 Comments

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “is still struggling to put together a new right wing coalition government in Israel before a looming deadline at midnight on Wednesday,” the Guardian reports.

“Although the prime minister is expected to scrape together a coalition by the thinnest of margins – with the key support of the far-right Jewish Home party led by Naftali Bennett – it appears it will be at the head of an unstable and vulnerable government. Failure to meet the deadline would mean that the Israeli president, Reuven Rivlin, would be required to ask another Israeli MP to try to form a government.”

Kamala Harris Aide Accused of Running Rogue Police Force

May 6, 2015 at 9:03 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 52 Comments

An aide to California Attorney General Kamala Harris (D) and two others “are accused of operating a rogue police force that claimed to exist for more than 3,000 years and have jurisdiction in 33 states and Mexico,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“Suspicions about the Masonic Fraternal Police Department — whose members trace their origins to the Knights Templar — were aroused when various police chiefs in Southern California received a letter in late January that announced new leadership for the group.”

What Americans Don’t Want in a President

May 6, 2015 at 9:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

Wonk Wire highlights the traits voters don’t like in their leaders.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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