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Secret Group Has Been Researching Rubio Bid

April 13, 2015 at 7:46 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 3 Comments

“A secret-money group linked to Marco Rubio’s new super PAC has existed for more than a year, during which time it conducted extensive research on early-state primary voters,” National Journal reports.

“The nonprofit—whose existence has never been revealed and whose name matches the recently announced pro-Rubio super PAC—commissioned a minutely detailed, 270-page political research book on early-state primary voters last year, and the report was prepared by a firm on Rubio’s own political payroll.”

How Clinton Decided to Run Again

April 13, 2015 at 7:42 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 2 Comments

HIllary Clinton’s “decision to run again would be slow, almost painstakingly deliberate, a reflection of Clinton’s methodical and cautious nature. She put off much of the process until last fall, around the midterm elections. Only then did she delve deeply into consultations with dozens of policy and political experts, analysis of countless memos, and a reexamination of what went wrong in her failed 2008 campaign,” the AP reports.

“There was plenty that gave Clinton pause. She grimaced at the thought of giving up her privacy again. She worried about putting Chelsea, husband Marc and their baby in the spotlight. She felt bad that her candidacy would crowd out Vice President Joe Biden, a longtime friend who was also toying with a White House run. Clinton was also mindful of chatter that she could be challenged from her party’s liberal left flank… A less talked-about concern was health, both hers and her husband’s.”

By Christmas last year, “she had largely settled on running a second campaign, but wanted to make the final determination with her husband, Bill. When she returned to New York in the new year, there was no formal meeting with staff or email to friends to announce her candidacy. Clinton simply started telling advisers to move forward with hiring and find a campaign headquarters.”

Clinton Aides Tamp Down Fundraising Expectations

April 13, 2015 at 7:31 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 3 Comments

Hillary Clinton’s allies “are already sounding warnings about the stratospheric expectations and trying to tamp them down,” Bloomberg reports.

“Her aides emphasize that in this campaign—unlike in 2008—Clinton first will ask donors to contribute only for the primary and to hold off on general election donations. Under federal regulations, individuals can give up to $5,400 for Clinton’s 2016 campaign, $2,700 earmarked for the primary and $2,700 for the general. During her first presidential race, Clinton asked donors to max out for the cycle up front. That approach left her with a tantalizing amount of cash she wasn’t legally able to use in what became a brutal primary fight with Obama.”

New York Times: “Hours before Clinton said she would be hitting the campaign trail, her aides began reaching out to prospective donors, asking them to find 10 people to write a check for the maximum amount – $2,700 – earning them status as ‘Hill-starters.’ They have 30 days to raise the checks, and if they do, they are invited to a major campaign finance summit in May.”


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Rubio Will Announce White House Bid Today

April 13, 2015 at 7:05 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 25 Comments

“Drawing heavily on his family story and concern that the American Dream is eroding for many Americans, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio will announce later today he is running for president, making the argument that the nation needs a fresh leader and trying to show Republicans can focus on middle-class issues,” the Tampa Bay Times reports.

“Rubio’s team released few advance details about today’s program, and a reporter who showed up at the site on Sunday afternoon was shooed away. Behind a black curtain, workers were still assembling staging and putting microphone holders on a podium. Dozens of reporters are expected to cover the event.”

Los Angeles Times: “Rubio is now seen by many as a sleeper candidate or second-choice. As his campaign ramps up, it will need to reignite the excitement that once led the party to view him as a front-runner.”

Liberal Donors Seek to Take Back the States

April 13, 2015 at 6:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 15 Comments

“A cadre of wealthy liberal donors aims to pour tens of millions of dollars into rebuilding the left’s political might in the states, racing to catch up with a decades-old conservative effort that has reshaped statehouses across the country,” the Washington Post reports.

“The plan embraced by the Democracy Alliance, an organization that advises some of the Democrats’ top contributors, puts an urgent new focus on financing groups that can help the party regain influence in time for the next congressional redistricting process, after the 2020 elections. The blueprint approved by the alliance board calls on donors to help expand state-level organizing and lobbying for measures addressing climate change, voting rights and economic inequality.”

Family Feud Divides Far Right French Party

April 13, 2015 at 6:35 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

“Jean-Marie Le Pen, founder of France’s far-right National Front, said on Monday he would not seek its ticket to stand in regional polls, taking some of the sting out of a damaging public row with his daughter Marine, the party’s current leader,” Reuters reports.

“But the 86-year-old former paratrooper told Le Figaro in an interview that he was disappointed by his daughter and would not quit politics, showing that the family feud that could emerge as a threat to the FN’s bid for power is not necessarily over. Marine Le Pen, who in 2011 took over as FN party leader from her father, has been trying to persuade him to retire both from the December regional polls and from politics altogether.”

LePage Supercharged

April 13, 2015 at 6:18 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 4 Comments

“The first four months of Gov. Paul LePage’s second term have been a supercharged version of his first four years in office. He’s brasher, comfortable and unburdened by the prospects of another election,” the Portland Press Herald reports.

“The result has been a display of power that is feared and respected, despised and yet rarely countervailed.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

April 12, 2015 at 9:59 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 57 Comments

“People want to see change and Hillary Clinton is not that person. She’s a creature of Washington.”

— Mitt Romney, quoted by The Hill.

Clinton Formally Announces Her White House Bid

April 12, 2015 at 4:55 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 39 Comments

Screen Shot 2015-04-12 at 5.53.33 PM“Ending two years of speculation and coy denials, Hillary Clinton announced on Sunday that she would seek the presidency for a second time, immediately establishing herself as the likely 2016 Democratic nominee,” the New York Times reports.

She made the announcement with a video: “I’m running for president.”

“The announcement effectively began what could be one of the least contested races, without an incumbent, for the Democratic presidential nomination in recent history — a stark contrast to the 2008 primaries, when Mrs. Clinton, the early front-runner, ended up in a long and expensive battle won by Barack Obama. It could also be the first time a woman captures a major party’s nomination.”

Why Hillary Clinton Will Probably Win in 2016

April 12, 2015 at 12:46 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 219 Comments

Jonathan Chait: “Unless the economy goes into a recession over the next year and a half, Hillary Clinton is probably going to win the presidential election. The United States has polarized into stable voting blocs, and the Democratic bloc is a bit larger and growing at a faster rate.”

“The argument for Clinton in 2016 is that she is the candidate of the only major American political party not run by lunatics. There is only one choice for voters who want a president who accepts climate science and rejects voodoo economics, and whose domestic platform would not engineer the largest upward redistribution of resources in American history. Even if the relatively sober Jeb Bush wins the nomination, he will have to accommodate himself to his party’s barking-mad consensus. She is non-crazy America’s choice by default. And it is not necessarily an exciting choice, but it is an easy one, and a proposition behind which she will probably command a majority.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

April 12, 2015 at 10:07 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 9 Comments

“I wish her well in this race and I look forward to being able to stay well away from it.”

— Secretary of State John Kerry, quoted by ABC News, on Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign.

Republicans Unite in Opposition to Clinton

April 12, 2015 at 9:14 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 99 Comments

“The deluge of derision this weekend from Republicans responding to Hillary Clinton’s presidential launch is the start of a highly coordinated effort by national GOP leaders and conservative groups to effectively begin the general-election campaign against the likely Democratic nominee,” the Washington Post reports.

“Acknowledging Clinton’s political strength, many Republican officials and strategists on the right are determined to get a head start on attacking her record as secretary of state and highlighting what they see as her vulnerabilities, almost ignoring her lesser-known rivals. The early onslaught — a battery of opposition research, snarky videos and even an upcoming feature film — reflects Republicans’ desire to use a common opponent to unite their ranks, which have fractured as the GOP has stumbled in the past two presidential elections.”

Clinton Prepares to Announce

April 12, 2015 at 9:11 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

Saturday Night Live offered a behind-the-scenes look at Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign announcement.

Paul and Bush Face GOP Primary Obstacles

April 12, 2015 at 9:07 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 26 Comments

Sen. Rand Paul “may have a problem with women, and Jeb Bush already has been written off by a large share of potential primary voters, according to a new Bloomberg Politics national poll that underscores the wide-open nature of the race four months before the first primary debate.”

“Just 11 percent of Republican and independent women in the poll said they’d seriously consider supporting Paul… compared to 22 percent of men. No other Republican contender has a worse spread.”

“Bush’s challenges with potential primary voters are well established. His support for easing immigration laws runs counter to the views held by many conservatives. He also backs Common Core academic standards, which have fueled fears within the party, while other presidential contenders have criticized them as akin to creating a national school board. Bush is also contending with voter anxiety about electing a third Bush president.”

Quote of the Day

April 12, 2015 at 9:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 25 Comments

“She was a supporter of mine in the general election, she was an outstanding secretary of State, she is my friend. I think she would be an excellent president.”

— President Obama, quoted by The Hill, on Hillary Clinton’s candidacy.

Walker Finds National Politics is Much Harder

April 12, 2015 at 8:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 37 Comments

Gov. Scott Walker “has always bragged about his superior political skills, citing the fact that he’s won three gubernatorial elections in four years. But in recent weeks, he’s learned just how much harder presidential politics is than Wisconsin politics. For one thing, people pay much closer attention,” Politico reports.

Obama Says Partisanship Over Iran Crosses Line

April 11, 2015 at 7:03 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 25 Comments

President Obama “says that partisan wrangling in Congress over the emerging nuclear agreement with Iran has gone beyond the pale,” the AP reports.

“The president said Saturday he isn’t surprised that some Iranian leaders are criticizing certain provisions of the deal. But he says he is dismayed that some Republican members of Congress are giving more credence to the Iranian leader’s interpretation of the deal than they are to U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry’s explanations.”

Atwater Backs Out of Senate Bid

April 11, 2015 at 7:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 32 Comments

“Just as he looked like a front-runner to replace Sen. Marco Rubio, Florida CFO Jeff Atwater announced Saturday he would not run for the seat,” Politico reports.

“The Rubio and Atwater decisions are setting off the very type of nightmare scenarios Republican Party leaders were hoping to avoid in Florida, a state the GOP essentially needs to win to carry that White House but that trends Democratic in presidential election years.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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