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Presidential Candidates Spar Over GOP’s Future

April 20, 2015 at 6:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 11 Comments

Wall Street Journal: “On one side are Jeb Bush and Sens. Rand Paul and Lindsey Graham, who emphasized that the party’s nominee needs to reach beyond the GOP’s base of mostly white and older conservative voters, given how the general electorate is growing increasingly diverse.”

“On the other sits a handful of presidential contenders, including Sen. Ted Cruz and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who say the party’s nominee needs to be a dedicated conservative who can mobilize the religious right to turn out in droves in 2016.”

Politico has 6 takeaways from the GOP cattle call in New Hampshire.

Christie Sinks to Another New Low

April 20, 2015 at 6:02 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments

A new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey finds voters are giving Gov. Chris Christie his lowest approval rating yet, 38% to 56%.

Key finding: “A majority — 53% to 38% — thinks the governor knew about the traffic situation on the George Washington Bridge, but most say that he did not personally order it.”

Republicans Look To Lift Spending Caps

April 20, 2015 at 6:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

“GOP congressional leaders are racing to approve a budget blueprint for the coming year that abides by strict spending limits, determined to show that the party can maintain fiscal discipline,” Politico reports.

“But some rank-and-file Republicans are already expressing interest in a much bigger deal that would adjust those caps, sweep away the still-developing blueprint and ease the budgetary pressure on the Pentagon — and, grudgingly, domestic programs if necessary.”


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Big Money In Politics May Be An Issue In 2016

April 19, 2015 at 9:11 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

Washington Post: “Turning disgust with billionaire super PAC benefactors into a platform that moves voters has been an elusive goal for activists seeking to curb the massive sums sloshing through campaigns. But five years after the Supreme Court’s Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission decision — which held it was unconstitutional to ban independent political spending by corporations and unions, and helped set off a financial arms race — there are signs that politicians are beginning to confront a voter backlash.”

Nine States Have Consistently Picked the GOP Nominee

April 19, 2015 at 8:59 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

Smart Politics analyzed “the last 10 election cycles dating back to 1976 and found that just nine states have backed the eventual Republican nominee in primaries or caucuses each time: Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oregon, and Wisconsin (all primary states).”

“Each of these nine states except for Oregon has held at least one primary at the front end of the calendar since 1976, although Florida has done so most consistently during this period… Competitive primary races also took place in Illinois (1980, 2012), Kentucky (1988), Maryland (1980), New Jersey (2008), New York (2000), Ohio (2000, 2012), Oregon (1976), and Wisconsin (1976, 1980, 2012) – with the eventual GOP nominee claiming victory each time.”

Republican States Are Getting More Partisan

April 19, 2015 at 7:14 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 26 Comments

Washington Post: “Since the 1990s, the margin by which states have been more Republican has indeed grown, while the margin by which states vote more Democratic has been relatively flat. This reinforces the idea that partisan loyalty has strengthened — but only on one side of the split. States that vote more Republican than the rest of the country have voted increasingly more Republican. States that vote more Democratic haven’t changed as much.”

Manchin Rules Out Governor’s Bid

April 19, 2015 at 12:04 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 48 Comments

Joe Manchin (D-WV) said he will stay in the U.S. Senate rather than run for governor of West Virginia, the Charleston Daily Mail reports.

Said Mancin: “This place may not be working now, but I’m not going to stop fighting to make it work.”

Graham Says He’s 91% Certain to Run

April 19, 2015 at 11:51 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 32 Comments

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) oddly told Fox News he is “91% sure” that he’ll jump into the 2016 presidential race.

Said Graham: “If I can raise the money, I’ll do it.”

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

April 19, 2015 at 11:49 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 20 Comments

“I don’t worry about separating myself. I’m just John Kasich. If it works, great. If not, I’ll play more golf.”

— Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R), quoted by the Toledo Blade, on running for president in a crowded GOP field.

Campaigning from the Grave

April 19, 2015 at 11:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 24 Comments

Rick Hasen points us to an obituary with a unique call to action: “Also, the family respectfully asks that you not vote for Hillary Clinton in 2016. R.I.P. Grandaddy.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

April 19, 2015 at 10:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 64 Comments

“She is the third term of Barack Obama. If you’re looking for something new, don’t look to her. Look to the 35 people running for president on the Republican side.”

— Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), quoted by the Washington Post, on Hillary Clinton’s presidential candidacy.

Quote of the Day

April 19, 2015 at 9:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 31 Comments

“If Jeb Bush loses New Hampshire, they’ll get Mitt Romney back in the race.”

— James Carville, quoted by the Washington Post.

Clinton Starts By Patching Relations with Liberals

April 19, 2015 at 9:04 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 19 Comments

Associated Press: “During the opening week of her second presidential campaign, Clinton showed she had retooled her positions to line up with the views of progressive Democrats. On Monday, she called for a constitutional amendment that would limit ‘unaccountable money’ in politics. Days later, she said through her campaign that she supports same-sex marriage being recognized as a constitutional right in a pending Supreme Court case. After that, her campaign said she now supports state policies awarding licenses to people in the country illegally.”

“Such do-overs are part of an effort by Clinton to rectify past missteps and assure the liberal wing of her party that in 2016, she will be change they’ve been waiting for.”

Two Clashing Realities in 2016

April 19, 2015 at 9:02 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 42 Comments

Los Angeles Times: “Democrats will be trying to win a third consecutive presidential election, a difficult task made harder by the fact that by almost 2 to 1, Americans continue to believe the country is on the wrong track, polls show.”

“Republicans will be trying to win with a base of supporters that is roughly 90% white in an increasingly diverse country, having failed so far to develop a strategy to attract the growing minority populations who rejected them in 2008 and 2012.”

Who Is Best to Take On Clinton?

April 19, 2015 at 8:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 25 Comments

New York Times: “The two-day event here in New Hampshire, where the nation’s first primary will be held early next year, showcased the talents, tactics and breadth of the Republican field. The 2012 presidential race featured several Republicans who made little impression on the party’s voters, who have typically nominated longtime leaders (Ronald Reagan, the elder George Bush, Bob Dole, John McCain) or high-profile governors with strong networks of donors (George W. Bush, Mitt Romney).”

“The race for the 2016 Republican nomination has a mix of prominent candidates and lesser-known but fiery ones. The critiques here on Friday and Saturday showed the bluntness of some of the candidates, the humor of others and the strategic interests of several — including those who chose not to mention Mrs. Clinton and to introduce themselves to voters in a more positive light. And all of them sought to project the experience, knowledge and steeliness needed to take on a politician of Mrs. Clinton’s stature.”

Huckabee Says Wait to Join Military Until Obama Is Gone

April 18, 2015 at 2:53 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 113 Comments

Mike Huckabee (R) suggested that young Americans planning to join the military should wait until President Barack Obama leaves office to do so because his administration has an “open hostility toward the Christian faith,” the Huffington Post reports.

Said Huckabee: “I’d wait a couple of years until we get a new commander in chief that will once again believe ‘one nation under God,’ and believe that people of faith should be a vital part of the process of not only governing this country, but defending this country.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

April 18, 2015 at 11:04 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 65 Comments

“I’m starting to worry that when Hillary Clinton travels, there’s gonna need to be two planes – one for her and her entourage, and one for her baggage.”

— Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), quoted by The Hill.

Clinton’s Biggest Obstacle May Be Obama

April 18, 2015 at 9:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 79 Comments

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “The two factors that might be most vital to Hillary Clinton’s chances—the identity of the eventual Republican nominee and the standing of President Obama—are elements over which she has little influence. It’s the second factor, Obama’s job approval rating, that is especially critical. And the state and national polling numbers present a contradictory story.”

“By our count, so far in 2015 (as of April 13) there have been 52 polls in 21 states that have reported approval and disapproval numbers for Obama. We analyzed those polls and found that, in the majority of them, Obama’s approval rating is worse than one might expect, given his national standing. This under performance appears more pronounced in states with heavily white populations—including key swing states Iowa and New Hampshire.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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