A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida finds Jeff Atwater (R) is the strongest candidate in an early look at the 2016 U.S. Senate race in Florida.
Atwater leaders Rep. Patrick Murphy (D), 38%, to 34%, and tops Rep. Alan Grayson (D), 42% to 32%.
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Rand Paul’s Campaign Slogan
Politico says it will be, “Defeat the Washington machine. Unleash the American dream.”
“The slogan, beneath the RANDPAC logo of a torch flame, will be unveiled tomorrow as the senator kicks off a five-day, five-state announcement tour – starting in Kentucky and then going to New Hampshire, South Carolina, Iowa and Nevada (plus a Friday night fundraiser in Newport Beach, Calif.). The slogan is designed to set a theme that would work in both the primaries and the general election.”
Can Obama Keep Democrats Together on Iran?
First Read: “President Obama faces several obstacles before actually achieving his historic nuclear deal with Iran. There’s a Republican Party willing to fight him every step of the way. There’s an Israeli prime minister vowing to kill it. And there’s the fact that the U.S. and Iran still have to finalize key issues like the timing of sanctions relief. But the first test for Obama is making sure that his own party doesn’t scuttle the deal — by providing enough votes to override a presidential veto on bipartisan legislation scrutinizing the deal.”
“With just a few exceptions (like trying to make Larry Summers Fed chair), Obama has maintained discipline over his party — due in large part to the work of Harry Reid in the Senate and Nancy Pelosi in the House. Can he do so again?”
Quote of the Day
“Early on, when my wife and I were dating, we went to the grocery store, and I told her that sometimes I just buy birthday cakes, and I eat them. And she said: ‘Really? I do, too.'”
— Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR), in an interview with the New York Times.
Is Hillary Clinton a Good Candidate?
Jason Zengerle: “The grind can be obvious watching Clinton on the campaign trail. In her two successful Senate races and her unsuccessful presidential run in 2008, she often struggled to exhibit the basic qualities required of politicians… Where most pols project warmth, she often runs cold. Her speeches can be leaden and forced. She tightens up in unscripted moments. Above all, she bristles at what the public and the press now want most from politicians: authenticity.”
“And yet, there’s an increasingly popular school of thought, especially among political scientists but also among some political consultants, that being a good candidate is overrated. Some even argue that it’s irrelevant — not just to what sort of president a candidate would be, but also to whether he or she can get to the White House in the first place.”
First Read: “But here’s the fundamental question we’ve asked before about Clinton and 2016: Is she so flawed of a presidential candidate that she was destined to lose in 2008 — to anyone who was “decent”? Or did she lose what was essentially a 51%-49% Democratic race to the only person on the planet who could beat her?”
Bush Identified Himself as Hispanic on Voter Form
In a 2009 voter-registration application, Jeb Bush marked Hispanic in the field labeled “race/ethnicity,” the New York Times reports.
“A Bush spokeswoman could offer no explanation for the characterization… While Mr. Bush’s claiming to be Hispanic may have been a careless mistake, confusion over heritage is no laughing matter during a campaign season.”
Clinton Will Acquire Obama’s Email List
Politico reports Hillary Clinton “is expected from the start to have access to two potent collections of names, email addresses and other useful information — Obama’s vaunted 2012 campaign list of roughly 12 million supporters, and a separate list of about four million people gathered over the last two years by the outside group Ready for Hillary. While the legal details for the lists’ transfer are still being worked out, Democratic strategists say they expect both will eventually help Clinton raise money and build her team of volunteer field staffers.”
Strickland Leads Portman in Ohio
A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio finds Ted Strickland (D) with a 9 percentage-point lead over Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) in the 2016 Senate race, 48% to 39%.
Hillary Clinton Staff on Alert
CNN: “The long and winding prelude to her announcement is nearly over, according to aides, and the start of her second bid for the White House is likely only days away. Top Democratic activists in the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire privately say they have been placed on alert that Clinton will soon be on her way.”
“The specific moment she jumps into the race remains a closely-guarded secret, even inside the crowded corridors of her small office suite in Manhattan, which new aides have descended upon to build the operation. Only a handful of confidantes actually know the precise time Clinton will pull the trigger — first on social media — yet aides have been instructed to be ready from Monday forward.”
The Palatable Paul
As he prepares his own run for the White House, Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) “is trying to present a profile distinct from his father’s: not so libertarian, not so antiestablishment, not so antiwar,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Executing this pivot has become a central challenge for Mr. Paul, who plans to launch his campaign on Tuesday, as he seeks to reach beyond his father’s base of libertarians and appeal to a wider audience. The adjustment requires the younger Mr. Paul to keep a distance from some elements of his father’s legacy—his opposition to U.S. military engagement abroad, his uncompromising libertarianism and his deep hostility to GOP elites.”
“But drawing this distance is a difficult move for a candidate who learned his politics at his father’s knee. There was little daylight between the two over the years Rand Paul spent as a campaigner-in-training during Ron Paul’s runs for the House, Senate and presidency.”
The Hill: Paul seeks a Republican revolution
Think Progress: 6 reasons Rand Paul is not a Libertarian
Democrats Shift Social Security Strategy
“For years, liberal Democrats have fought against proposals to cut Social Security benefits. Now, they’re pushing the party not just to defend benefits but to increase them, and that could present a problem for Hillary Clinton,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The call for higher benefits is a marked difference from recent years in which the White House and Republicans were negotiating deficit-cutting deals, leaving liberals to argue merely for staving off benefit cutbacks. Separately, many experts in both parties have long argued that extending the solvency of the program would require a combination of benefit cuts and tax increases.”
Paul Taps House GOP Troublemakers
“While other presidential contenders have thus far been sluggish in soliciting help from Capitol Hill,” Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) “has already enlisted some of Congress’s leading rabble-rousers to assist his White House run,” National Journal reports.
“Paul will officially launch his campaign Tuesday in Louisville, before embarking on a four-day tour through the first four states—Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada— on the GOP nominating calendar. During the launch, or soon after, the senator is expected to announce endorsements from a host of House Republicans who will help his campaign in some capacity. Among them: Reps. Justin Amash of Michigan, Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Raul Labrador of Idaho, and Mark Sanford of South Carolina.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“The best deal, I think, comes with a new president. Hillary Clinton would do better. I think everybody on our side, except maybe Rand Paul, could do better.”
— Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), quoted by the Huffington Post, on the nuclear talks with Iran.
Hart Warns Democrats Over Clinton Candidacy
Gary Hart told Politico that the prospect of a billion-dollar Hillary Clinton campaign “ought to frighten every American” and Democrats would be better served by a competitive primary that forced her to speak in more depth about the issues.
Said Hart: “I like Hillary Clinton. I really appreciate what she and her husband have done… but we need new leaders.”
He added: “If you’ve got to have a billion dollars to run for president, how many people can do that? Only the Clintons and the Bushes and one or two others.”
Obama Defends Nuclear Deal
President Obama “strongly defended last week’s preliminary agreement with Iran as a ‘once in a lifetime opportunity’ to curb the spread of nuclear weapons in a dangerous region while reassuring critics that he would keep all options available if Tehran ultimately cheated,” the New York Times reports.
Huffington Post: Obama’s hard sell on Iran begins now
Paul Blurs His Positions Ahead of GOP Primary
“When the presidential buzz began building around Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) a couple of years ago, the expectation was that his libertarian ideas could make him the most unusual and intriguing voice among the major contenders in the 2016 field,” the Washington Post reports.
“But now, as he prepares to make his formal announcement Tuesday, Paul is a candidate who has turned fuzzy, having trimmed his positions and rhetoric so much that it’s unclear what kind of Republican he will present himself as when he takes the stage.”
“There are at least two areas where Paul has moved more in line with the conservative Republican base, somewhat to the consternation of the purists in the libertarian movement: adopting a more muscular posture on defense and foreign policy, and courting the religious right.”
Ayotte Aide Resigns in Prostitution Sting
A senior aide to Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) resigned his position after he was arrested and charged with soliciting a prostitute, the Boston Globe reports.
Said Ayotte: “I am shocked and deeply saddened that David Wihby, my state director and a friend for many years, has been arrested under these circumstances. David obviously cannot continue his duties, and I have accepted his resignation. This is a very difficult time, and my thoughts and prayers are with everyone involved.”
Kansas Bans Spending Welfare on Cruise Ships
“Kansas welfare recipients will be unable to get more than $25 per day in benefits under a new law sent this week to Republican Gov. Sam Brownback’s desk by the state legislature,” the Huffington Post reports.
“The bill also prohibits welfare recipients from spending their benefits at certain types of businesses, including liquor stores, fortune tellers, swimming pools and cruise ships.”
