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Rubio Makes It Official

April 13, 2015 at 2:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) “told his top donors Monday that he was running for president in 2016, becoming the third Republican to officially enter the contest,” the New York Times reports.

“At 43, the youngest candidate in the rapidly growing 2016 presidential field, Mr. Rubio is expected to cast himself as a forward-looking, next-generation leader — and an implicit contrast with both Jeb Bush, 62, whose family has dominated Republican politics for nearly three decades, and Hillary Rodham Clinton, 67, the wife of a former president and the most likely Democratic nominee.”

Politico: “His compelling biography, powerful speaking style and Hispanic surname helped fuel a rapid rise on the national stage. But his unsuccessful effort in 2013 to pass a comprehensive immigration reform bill damaged his standing with conservatives. After facing ferocious attacks, Rubio backed away from the plan, instead throwing his support to a more piecemeal approach.”

Why Marco Rubio May Be the GOP’s Strongest Candidate

April 13, 2015 at 9:08 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 135 Comments

Harry Enten: “Rubio is both electable and conservative, and in optimal proportions. He’s in a position to satisfy the GOP establishment, tea party-aligned voters and social conservatives. In fact, Rubio’s argument for the GOP nomination looks a lot like Walker’s, and Rubio is more of a direct threat to the Wisconsin governor than he is to fellow Floridian Bush.”

“To win a presidential nomination, you need to make it past the party actors (i.e., elected officials and highly dedicated partisans). You can have all the strong early poll numbers in the world (hello, Rudy Giuliani), and your candidacy can still fail if party bigwigs come out against you. Rubio has a real chance of surviving — or even winning — the invisible (or endorsement) primary.”

NBC News: “Rubio has the same kind of opportunity Obama did to beat the front-runner by running as a youthful, optimistic candidate of the future.”

However, First Read points out that “almost every time Rubio has been thrust into the spotlight, he hasn’t necessarily delivered (think the 2012 GOP convention, when Clint Eastwood overshadowed him; think that lunge for water during his State of the Union response; and think the immigration reform sponsorship that didn’t become law). So in a lot of respects, Rubio is akin to a five-tool prospect who just hasn’t put it all together yet.”

Health Insurance Mandate Garners Little Protest

April 13, 2015 at 8:51 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 18 Comments

“Obamacare’s first tax season includes all the elements needed to ignite a political firestorm. Yet with only days to go until the filing deadline, nothing’s burning,” according to Politico.

“Americans are reckoning for the first time with the most unpopular part of the law — the individual mandate — and having to prove they’ve had health insurance or to cough up a penalty. As they’ve done their taxes, many people have learned they owe money because they underestimated income when buying subsidized coverage in 2014. There’s been no real uproar, though.”

Wonk Wire: The uninsured rate continues to plummet


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Quote of the Day

April 13, 2015 at 8:42 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 87 Comments

“If they get to nominate Hillary Clinton, why don’t we get to nominate Dick Cheney?”

— Bill Kristol, quoted by Crooks and Liars.

Clinton Slips Away from Media Desperate to Find Her

April 13, 2015 at 8:36 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 34 Comments

Hillary Clinton “shocked nobody in the media when she announced that she was running for president on Sunday – but her next move took reporters by surprise,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“Clinton didn’t get on a campaign plane and head to Iowa. Instead, she and a small group of staff piled into what the candidate calls the Scooby van. They are road-tripping it to Iowa. The press was not invited.”

“The trip has all the makings of a campaign gimmick, but a pretty clever one as these things go. Clinton is launching into a listening tour where she is seeking meaningful conversations that are not drowned out by the spectacle of the campaign. No better way to do that than to give reporters the slip and hit the road.”

First Read says “the road trip adds some humanity to the rollout that made it seem less manufactured. It was a surprise that allows her to break out of the bubble and show her human side. Remember, Clinton has always been strongest as a politician when she shows her human side.”

CNN reports Clinton was spotted at a gas station in Pennsylvania.

Clinton’s Biggest Obstacle May Be Desire for Change

April 13, 2015 at 8:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 36 Comments

Steve Kornacki: “If there’s one particular reason to doubt whether Hillary Clinton will succeed in her second presidential bid, it’s this: Voters really do seem to get restless when one party has been running the White House for two terms.”

“This has been the case since the Democrats’ two-decade grip on the executive branch – four winning bids by Franklin Roosevelt and one by Harry Truman – was ended by the election of Republican Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. Since then, the two parties have mostly traded eight-year stints of White House control, with only two breaks in the pattern: Democrat Jimmy Carter, who managed to hold the presidency for just one term before Ronald Reagan replaced him; and George H.W. Bush, whose 1988 victory to succeed Reagan gave the GOP three straight national victories. Other than that, it’s been two terms on/two terms off for each party for more than 60 years now.”

Secret Group Has Been Researching Rubio Bid

April 13, 2015 at 7:46 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 3 Comments

“A secret-money group linked to Marco Rubio’s new super PAC has existed for more than a year, during which time it conducted extensive research on early-state primary voters,” National Journal reports.

“The nonprofit—whose existence has never been revealed and whose name matches the recently announced pro-Rubio super PAC—commissioned a minutely detailed, 270-page political research book on early-state primary voters last year, and the report was prepared by a firm on Rubio’s own political payroll.”

How Clinton Decided to Run Again

April 13, 2015 at 7:42 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 2 Comments

HIllary Clinton’s “decision to run again would be slow, almost painstakingly deliberate, a reflection of Clinton’s methodical and cautious nature. She put off much of the process until last fall, around the midterm elections. Only then did she delve deeply into consultations with dozens of policy and political experts, analysis of countless memos, and a reexamination of what went wrong in her failed 2008 campaign,” the AP reports.

“There was plenty that gave Clinton pause. She grimaced at the thought of giving up her privacy again. She worried about putting Chelsea, husband Marc and their baby in the spotlight. She felt bad that her candidacy would crowd out Vice President Joe Biden, a longtime friend who was also toying with a White House run. Clinton was also mindful of chatter that she could be challenged from her party’s liberal left flank… A less talked-about concern was health, both hers and her husband’s.”

By Christmas last year, “she had largely settled on running a second campaign, but wanted to make the final determination with her husband, Bill. When she returned to New York in the new year, there was no formal meeting with staff or email to friends to announce her candidacy. Clinton simply started telling advisers to move forward with hiring and find a campaign headquarters.”

Clinton Aides Tamp Down Fundraising Expectations

April 13, 2015 at 7:31 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 3 Comments

Hillary Clinton’s allies “are already sounding warnings about the stratospheric expectations and trying to tamp them down,” Bloomberg reports.

“Her aides emphasize that in this campaign—unlike in 2008—Clinton first will ask donors to contribute only for the primary and to hold off on general election donations. Under federal regulations, individuals can give up to $5,400 for Clinton’s 2016 campaign, $2,700 earmarked for the primary and $2,700 for the general. During her first presidential race, Clinton asked donors to max out for the cycle up front. That approach left her with a tantalizing amount of cash she wasn’t legally able to use in what became a brutal primary fight with Obama.”

New York Times: “Hours before Clinton said she would be hitting the campaign trail, her aides began reaching out to prospective donors, asking them to find 10 people to write a check for the maximum amount – $2,700 – earning them status as ‘Hill-starters.’ They have 30 days to raise the checks, and if they do, they are invited to a major campaign finance summit in May.”

Rubio Will Announce White House Bid Today

April 13, 2015 at 7:05 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 25 Comments

“Drawing heavily on his family story and concern that the American Dream is eroding for many Americans, U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio will announce later today he is running for president, making the argument that the nation needs a fresh leader and trying to show Republicans can focus on middle-class issues,” the Tampa Bay Times reports.

“Rubio’s team released few advance details about today’s program, and a reporter who showed up at the site on Sunday afternoon was shooed away. Behind a black curtain, workers were still assembling staging and putting microphone holders on a podium. Dozens of reporters are expected to cover the event.”

Los Angeles Times: “Rubio is now seen by many as a sleeper candidate or second-choice. As his campaign ramps up, it will need to reignite the excitement that once led the party to view him as a front-runner.”

Liberal Donors Seek to Take Back the States

April 13, 2015 at 6:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 15 Comments

“A cadre of wealthy liberal donors aims to pour tens of millions of dollars into rebuilding the left’s political might in the states, racing to catch up with a decades-old conservative effort that has reshaped statehouses across the country,” the Washington Post reports.

“The plan embraced by the Democracy Alliance, an organization that advises some of the Democrats’ top contributors, puts an urgent new focus on financing groups that can help the party regain influence in time for the next congressional redistricting process, after the 2020 elections. The blueprint approved by the alliance board calls on donors to help expand state-level organizing and lobbying for measures addressing climate change, voting rights and economic inequality.”

Family Feud Divides Far Right French Party

April 13, 2015 at 6:35 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

“Jean-Marie Le Pen, founder of France’s far-right National Front, said on Monday he would not seek its ticket to stand in regional polls, taking some of the sting out of a damaging public row with his daughter Marine, the party’s current leader,” Reuters reports.

“But the 86-year-old former paratrooper told Le Figaro in an interview that he was disappointed by his daughter and would not quit politics, showing that the family feud that could emerge as a threat to the FN’s bid for power is not necessarily over. Marine Le Pen, who in 2011 took over as FN party leader from her father, has been trying to persuade him to retire both from the December regional polls and from politics altogether.”

LePage Supercharged

April 13, 2015 at 6:18 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 4 Comments

“The first four months of Gov. Paul LePage’s second term have been a supercharged version of his first four years in office. He’s brasher, comfortable and unburdened by the prospects of another election,” the Portland Press Herald reports.

“The result has been a display of power that is feared and respected, despised and yet rarely countervailed.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

April 12, 2015 at 9:59 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 57 Comments

“People want to see change and Hillary Clinton is not that person. She’s a creature of Washington.”

— Mitt Romney, quoted by The Hill.

Clinton Formally Announces Her White House Bid

April 12, 2015 at 4:55 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 39 Comments

Screen Shot 2015-04-12 at 5.53.33 PM“Ending two years of speculation and coy denials, Hillary Clinton announced on Sunday that she would seek the presidency for a second time, immediately establishing herself as the likely 2016 Democratic nominee,” the New York Times reports.

She made the announcement with a video: “I’m running for president.”

“The announcement effectively began what could be one of the least contested races, without an incumbent, for the Democratic presidential nomination in recent history — a stark contrast to the 2008 primaries, when Mrs. Clinton, the early front-runner, ended up in a long and expensive battle won by Barack Obama. It could also be the first time a woman captures a major party’s nomination.”

Why Hillary Clinton Will Probably Win in 2016

April 12, 2015 at 12:46 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 219 Comments

Jonathan Chait: “Unless the economy goes into a recession over the next year and a half, Hillary Clinton is probably going to win the presidential election. The United States has polarized into stable voting blocs, and the Democratic bloc is a bit larger and growing at a faster rate.”

“The argument for Clinton in 2016 is that she is the candidate of the only major American political party not run by lunatics. There is only one choice for voters who want a president who accepts climate science and rejects voodoo economics, and whose domestic platform would not engineer the largest upward redistribution of resources in American history. Even if the relatively sober Jeb Bush wins the nomination, he will have to accommodate himself to his party’s barking-mad consensus. She is non-crazy America’s choice by default. And it is not necessarily an exciting choice, but it is an easy one, and a proposition behind which she will probably command a majority.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

April 12, 2015 at 10:07 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 9 Comments

“I wish her well in this race and I look forward to being able to stay well away from it.”

— Secretary of State John Kerry, quoted by ABC News, on Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign.

Republicans Unite in Opposition to Clinton

April 12, 2015 at 9:14 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 99 Comments

“The deluge of derision this weekend from Republicans responding to Hillary Clinton’s presidential launch is the start of a highly coordinated effort by national GOP leaders and conservative groups to effectively begin the general-election campaign against the likely Democratic nominee,” the Washington Post reports.

“Acknowledging Clinton’s political strength, many Republican officials and strategists on the right are determined to get a head start on attacking her record as secretary of state and highlighting what they see as her vulnerabilities, almost ignoring her lesser-known rivals. The early onslaught — a battery of opposition research, snarky videos and even an upcoming feature film — reflects Republicans’ desire to use a common opponent to unite their ranks, which have fractured as the GOP has stumbled in the past two presidential elections.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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