A new Civitas poll in North Carolina finds Thom Tillis (R) leading among registered Republicans in the Senate primary with 38%, followed by Greg Bannon (R) at 17% and Mark Harris (R) at 14%.
A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Tillis at 46%, Brannon at 20% and Harris at 11%.
Tillis needs 40% to avoid a runoff.
Sasha Issenberg: “There is the America that votes in presidential elections, which has helped Democrats win the popular vote in five out of the last six cycles and supports the view that Hillary Clinton can continue that streak should she run. Then there is the America that votes more regularly, casting ballots in both presidential and midterm years, which led to the Republican wave in 2010 and gives its party’s leaders reason to be so sanguine about their odds this time around.”
“Democrats are facing an inverse of the four-decade span in the late twentieth century when the party controlled the House of Representatives and largely dominated the Senate but suffered through three two-term Republican presidencies. The bad news for Democrats is that the imbalance could take a generation to work itself out naturally. The good news is that, thanks to a newly nuanced understanding of the voting brain, they know exactly what it will take to fix it.”
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that voters by a 53% to 39% margin say they’d rather see the Republicans in control of Congress as a counterbalance to President Obama’s policies than a Democratic-led Congress to help support him.
Meanwhile, Obama’s job approval rating, after a slight winter rebound, has lost 5 points among all adults since March, to 41%, the lowest of his presidency.
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Former Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) has a new job as a visiting professor at Liberty University where he has given lectures on constitutional law and state government, the AP reports.
McDonnell and his wife, Maureen, are currently awaiting trial on federal corruption charges.
Former Illinois State Rep. Keith Farnham (D) was charged “with using both personal and state-owned computers to trade hundreds of images and videos depicting child pornography and engage in graphic online chats in which he allegedly bragged about sexually molesting a 6-year-old girl,” the Chicago Tribune reports.
When he resigned his seat last month, Farnham said he was stepping down due to serious health concerns.
A new Survey USA poll in Georgia finds Gov. Nathan Deal (R) edging challenger Jason Carter (D) in the race for governor, 41% to 37%, with Libertarian Andrew hunt at 9%.
The New York Times notes that with the prospect of higher office on the horizon, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) “finds his earlier track record under increasing scrutiny, not only for how closely it hews to conservative principles but also for the criminal convictions of some staff members and the release of staff emails that included racial and ethnic slurs.”
“These date to his time as Milwaukee County executive, a post he held from 2002 to 2010, and raise questions about the people he chose as confidants, the same sorts of questions that have caused more acute troubles for Mr. Christie in the scandal surrounding lane closings at the George Washington Bridge. Three of Mr. Walker’s former aides and several other associates have been convicted of crimes in an investigation into whether campaign work was being done on county time.”
“On top of all that I have an election to win.”
— Rep. Michael Grimm (R-NY), quoted by the New York Observer, at a press conference after his indictment on federal fraud charges.
After several conservative publications claimed racist Los Angeles Clippers owner Donald Sterling was a Democrat — primarily because of political contributions made to several candidates — Mother Jones finds that he’s actually a registered Republican.
“There’s little reason to get excited about Sterling’s political affiliation. But if you choose to do so, you ought to get it right.”
The Week has the latest on the story.
North Carolina political reporter Rob Christensen joins us for a deep dive into Tar Heel state politics.
Democratic pollster Geoff Garin gives us insight into upcoming midterm elections and whether Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016.
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Rep. Vance McAllister (R-LA) told the Monroe News-Star that he won’t be seeking reelection to his seat next fall.
“McAllister has been under siege since a scandal broke before Easter when a video was published showing the married congressman kissing a married former staffer.”
Rep. Michael Grimm (R-NY) was indicted on 20 counts including “federal fraud charges for underreporting the wages and payroll while running an Upper East Side restaurant, concealing the actual payroll in a separate set of computer records,” the New York Times reports.
He also lied under oath in January 2013, while he was a member of Congress, during a deposition, the indictment says.
Roll Call: “Grimm will be on the general-election ballot unless one of three unlikely events takes place… He has already been designated by the state party as its nominee, so the only way he can be removed is by moving out of the district, running for a judgeship or being convicted before the general, the source said.”
Cook Political Report moves the seat to “Lean Democrat.”
“I don’t think U.S. senators make that much money.”
— Iowa U.S. Senate candidate Mark Jacobs (R), quoted by NBC News, on whether he would forgo his Senate salary if he wins the office.
Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) emphasizes the importance of her Senate seniority in a very effective new ad.
The Boston Globe notes that Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and former Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) “created no bonds” and “rarely interacted and barely spoke” while they served together in the U.S. Senate.
“The unusually cool relationship across the partisan divide helps explain why the New Hampshire Senate race has quickly turned bitter, now that Brown has moved north and is running against the incumbent Shaheen after Elizabeth Warren foiled his own 2012 reelection bid in Massachusetts.”
Rep. Michael Grimm (R-NY) surrendered to the FBI and was arrested on federal criminal charges, NBC New York reports.
Staten Island Advance: “The federal indictment against Grimm, two-plus years in the making, would be made public on Monday as well. The charges are expected to concern tax issues and wire and mail fraud having to do with Healthalicious, the health food restaurant Grimm owned for a time after leaving the FBI.”
The FBI “is exploring whether confidantes of Gov. Sam Brownback (R) operated influence-peddling operations in Kansas pivoting on personal access to the Republican governor and top administration officials,” the Topeka Capital Journal reports.
“Of concern to the FBI were behind-the-scenes financial arrangements related to Brownback’s privatization of the state’s $3 billion Medicaid program. The governor’s branding of KanCare handed to three for-profit insurance companies exclusive contracts to provide Medicaid services to 380,000 of Kansas’ disabled and poor.”
“Usually when I get up this early, I get up to kill something.”
— Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), quoted by BuzzFeed, at an early morning church service to a congregation not familiar with his passion for bowhunting.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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