A new Chicago Tribune poll finds Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel (D) “is closing in on the majority he needs to win re-election and avoid a runoff, but nearly 1 in 5 Chicago voters remain undecided a week before Election Day.”
“The survey found that Emanuel has boosted his favorability and job approval ratings among voters after millions of dollars in TV ads, while support for top challenger Jesus ‘Chuy’ Garcia may be stalling as he starts to air his own ads in the closing days of the campaign.”
A new CNN/ORC poll finds Republicans in Congress would shoulder the blame for a shutdown at the Department of Homeland Security more than President Obama if they are unable to enact a new spending bill to keep the agency running, 53% to 30%. Another 13% say both deserve the blame.
Former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D) has started raising money for a 2016 U.S. Senate bid, the Youngstown Vindicator reports.
“Strickland hasn’t formed a campaign committee yet… Those running for the Senate must form a committee and file the proper paperwork with the Federal Election Commission within 15 days of raising or spending $5,000.”
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Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) aides “plan to arrange a series of town-hall meetings for him this year in New Hampshire, anticipating that his direct and sometimes combative style will play well in the state that analysts say is his best chance at victory among the early battlegrounds for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Such town-hall meetings could help his team use Mr. Christie’s strength in a state that has long favored such question-and-answer sessions to take the temperature of presidential candidates. While the Christie team is setting up campaign machinery in all early-voting states, Republican voters in the two others—Iowa and South Carolina—often reward candidates with more conservative profiles.”
The Newark Star Ledger says Christie “gave the first glimpse of what he’d do if Americans elected him to the White House while speaking to New Hampshire Republicans in the presidential battleground state tonight.”
Jeb Bush’s “effort to stop Michael Schiavo from removing his brain-damaged wife’s feeding tube was a defining moment of Bush’s time in office,” the AP reports. “Bush, a devout Catholic, sided with Terri Schiavo’s parents in the end-of-life dispute and reached for unprecedented authority to intervene. Michael Schiavo said his wife did not want to be kept alive artificially.”
“As Bush moves toward a run for president in 2016, Michael Schiavo has re-emerged, promising to campaign against Bush and remind voters about the ex-governor’s role in the matter.”
Sen. Rand Paul’s (R-KY) “bash-the-Fed routine” “is political gold with libertarian voters suspicious of all federal authority, especially a central bank with a $4.5 trillion balance sheet,” Politico reports.
“But Paul could face a significant challenge if he emerges from Iowa with a legitimate shot at the Republican nomination. Because experts say he gets many of his arguments about the Fed flat wrong. And the establishment wing of the GOP — backed by piles of Wall Street money — views Paul’s approach to the Fed as dangerous and irresponsible.”
“A federal judge in Texas last night temporarily blocked the Obama administration’s executive actions on immigration. The judge, responding to a suit filed by 26 Republican-run states, did not rule on the legality of immigration orders but said there was sufficient merit to the challenge to warrant a suspension while the case goes forward,” the Washington Post reports.
Former Rep. Joe Walsh (R-IL) told The Hill that he is considering a challenge to Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL).
Said Walsh: “I am very seriously considering challenging him in a primary. Mark Kirk has got to be challenged.”
“The one-term lawmaker isn’t backing off his inflammatory comments that made him a conservative star, though, as he weighs a quixotic comeback bid… Walsh has since built a local following in the Chicago area with his conservative talk show — and if anything has upped the controversy level with a string of racially charged comments in the past few years.”
“The current Congress is not equipped really to do anything. The kind of result that we got in the Ledbetter case is not easily achieved today. Someday, we will go back to having the kind of legislature that we should, where members, whatever party they belong to, want to make the thing work and cooperate with each other to see that that will happen.”
— Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, in an interview on MSNBC.
National Journal: “Washington is pretty certain Hillary Clinton is the favorite to win the White House. Democrats have a natural turnout advantage in presidential years, seasoned political operatives reason. Five of the past six popular-vote tallies have gone to the Democratic candidate. And early polls that show Clinton sporting a big lead, especially among women, have strategists wondering how the Republican nominee could ever catch up.”
“But outside of the capital, from Georgia to New York to California, there’s another set of political professionals watching this race: academics and model-makers. And based on the data they track, Democrats have little reason to be so bullish about Clinton’s chances.”
Tennessee state Rep. James VanHuss (R) wants to change the state’s constitution so that it includes the phrase: “We recognize that our liberties do not come from governments, but from Almighty God, our Creator and Savior,” the Tennessean reports.
Washington Post: “This leaves the tea party lane, which is both relatively large and entirely Cruz’s… What that means — particularly in the early stages of the primary process in places such as Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — is that he will probably be able to win, place or show repeatedly, racking up enough strong-ish performances to keep going even as the establishment and social-conservative lanes thin out. (Cruz’s ability to raise money, which remains a question, is less important for him than it is for other candidates — especially those in the establishment lane. His people are going to be for him no matter how much — or little — communicating he does with them.)”
“The trick for Cruz, the consultant said, is to hang around long enough to be the preeminent figure not only in the tea party lane but also in the social-conservative lane. (Cruz is decidedly conservative on social issues and talks regularly on the campaign trail about his faith. ) The complicating figure in that consolidation effort is Huckabee, who is (a) likely to run, (b) an ordained Southern Baptist minister and (c) likely to be able to stay in the race for an extended period because of the number of early Southern primaries.”
New York Times: “Wiry, ascetic, profane and relentless, John Podesta has become the Democratic Party’s marathon man in more ways than one. He helped save Bill Clinton’s presidency from the fires of scandal and impeachment. He spent the last year trying to salvage Barack Obama’s presidency from gridlock and malaise. And now he has handed in his White House pass to try to create a Hillary Rodham Clinton presidency from the ashes of her last failed campaign.”
“Perhaps no other unelected Democrat has shaped his party as much over the last two decades.”
“President Obama’s pick to serve as the next attorney general is having a hard time finding Republican supporters,” The Hill reports.
“To be confirmed by the Senate, attorney general nominee Loretta Lynch only needs four Republicans to support her nomination. But it is unclear where those votes will come from. Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) is the only Republican so far who has signaled his intention to vote for Lynch, though several others have spoken favorably about her.”
A Brookings survey of political scientists finds that President Obama ranks 18th overall among presidents, “but beneath the surface of the aggregate figures lurks evidence of significant ambivalence. For example, those who view Obama as one of the worst American presidents outnumber those who view him as one of the best by nearly a 3-1 margin. Similarly, nearly twice as many respondents view Obama as over-rated than do those who consider him under-rated.”
“One area where there is significant expert consensus about the president, however, concerns how polarizing he is viewed as being – only George W. Bush was viewed as more a more polarizing president.”
“Next, Obama does not perform well on more specific dimensions of presidential greatness, often viewed as average or worse. For example, he is the midpoint in terms of both personal integrity and military skill (e.g., 10th of 19 in both categories), but falls to 11th when it comes to diplomatic skill and 13th with respect to legislative skill.”
First Read: “In our experience, there’s a simple rule to follow to make sense of any shutdown showdown: The side that’s divided usually loses. And Republicans are the ones who are divided in the battle over funding the Department of Homeland Security — over whether or not to include riders overturning Obama’s executive actions on immigration.”
“Playing politics with security is always problematic. But it’s doubly problematic when your party is divided.”
London Mayor Boris Johnson, who was born in New York, says he intends to renounce his American citizenship to prove his “commitment to Britain,” the BBC reports.
He said that his citizenship was “an accident of birth that has left me with this thing. I’ve got to find a way of sorting it out.”
The Telegraph says Johnson, who is running for a seat in Parliament, would be “removing a potential obstacle to becoming Prime Minister.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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