Alan Abramowitz: “The fate of the incumbent party’s candidate is strongly influenced by the popularity of the outgoing president. In fact, the incumbent president’s approval rating explains over half of the variance in the vote share of his party’s nominee. All three candidates seeking to succeed presidents with approval ratings below 50% were defeated, and the two seeking to succeed presidents with approval ratings below 40% were decisively defeated. In contrast, two of the three candidates seeking to succeed presidents with approval ratings above 50% won the popular vote, although one of those candidates, Al Gore in 2000, ended up losing the electoral vote.”
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Flashback Quote of the Day
“When I watch John Edwards from time to time get up and talk about two Americas. I’m tempted to—well, offer an expletive like, ‘Baloney!'”
— Mitt Romney, quoted by CBS News in 2008, before his new found concern about income inequality in America.
New York Speaker in FBI Custody
“The powerful speaker of the New York State Assembly, Sheldon Silver, was arrested on federal corruption charges on Thursday, sending shock waves through the political establishment and upending the new legislative session,” the New York Times reports.
Silver, a Democrat from the Lower East Side of Manhattan who has served as speaker for more than two decades, surrendered to F.B.I. agents and told reporters, “I hope I’ll be vindicated.”
Hatch Sees Warren as the New Kennedy
Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) told Yahoo News that he thinks Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), “who showed up at a well-attended reception to celebrate Hatch’s chairmanship of the Senate Finance Committee and said a few words in his honor, would like to form a friendship with him ‘like Kennedy had.'”
Said Hatch: “We’ve become friends. I think she would like to have a relationship with me like Kennedy had. I like her. I think she’s a very bright woman. She’s certainly playing the media in a beautiful way.”
Hatch added that he’d like to see Warren become “the new Kennedy.”
Bonus Footage from ‘Mitt’ Released
Three bonus scenes from the Netflix documentary “Mitt,” were released this week on the film’s one-year anniversary, the Washington Post reports.
“The bonus documentary footage shows Romney at the Tampa convention spending time with his family, advisers and running mate Paul Ryan in his hotel suite and backstage at the convention hall. Also included are scenes where Romney leads his advisers on a tour of Cranbrook School, his Detroit area prep school alma mater, as well as a prank call during the 2008 campaign from one of his sons faking an impersonation of then-California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.”
Grassley Ramps Up Re-Election Bid
Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA) “doesn’t plan to be caught flat-footed if he faces a competitive, expensive re-election battle in 2016,” Roll Call reports.
Said Grassley: “I suppose early on, you spend your time on funding the campaign more than on organization, probably working very closely with the NRSC, more so than I have in the past because of the sophistication of campaigning now and the massive amount of money you have to raise compared to what you used to have to have. The days of cheap campaigns are over.”
Quote of the Day
“I gotta tell you, turning down your money back to Montana on an ideological basis, when people can lose their lives because they get no help, doesn’t make a lot of sense to me.”
— Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R), quoted by the Great Falls Tribune, speaking to Montana Republicans in support of Medicaid expansion under Obamacare.
Clinton Holds Solid Leads Over All GOP Challengers
Hillary Clinton’s “potential place in history and her husband’s tenure in the White House boost her presidential prospects, while Jeb Bush’s political legacy and Mitt Romney’s 2012 run for the office are negatives,” a new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds.
“Clinton leads both in hypothetical head-to-head matchups at this early stage – as well as Rand Paul, Chris Christie and Mike Huckabee alike. The national survey finds 53 to 56 percent support for Clinton among registered voters against each of these potential Republican candidates, while they get 39 to 41 percent. One reason is that Clinton is stronger in her political base, given the far more fragmented nature of the current GOP field.”
Republicans Avoid Democratic Trap on Climate Change
“Senate Republicans head-faked Democrats on climate change Wednesday, agreeing in a floor vote that the planet’s climate was changing, but blocking language that would have blamed human activity,” Politico reports.
“In a complicated maneuver that was the first politically perilous test for Senate Republicans, the new majority party split up the votes that Democrats had hoped would force the GOP into an awkward roll call on whether they believed in the science behind climate change — just hours after President Barack Obama slammed Republicans in his State of the Union address for dodging the issue.”
Bush and Romney Scheduled to Meet
Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney “are scheduled to meet privately this week in Utah, raising the possibility that the two former governors will find a way to avoid competing presidential campaigns that would split the Republican establishment next year,” the New York Times reports.
“The meeting was planned before Mr. Romney’s surprise announcement two weeks ago to donors in New York that he was considering a third run for the White House… The original idea was for Mr. Bush, who announced his presidential ambitions in December, to show his respect for Mr. Romney, the Republican Party’s 2012 nominee. The meeting stayed on both men’s calendars even as Mr. Romney took steps to test the presidential waters, moves that could make the meeting awkward.”
Jindal Gets Support of Super PAC
“A group of Republicans who want to see Bobby Jindal elected president are launching a super PAC to boost the Louisiana governor’s 2016 aspirations,” the Washington Examiner reports.
“Jindal has yet to announce for president. But organizers of ‘Believe Again’ plan to file papers Thursday and begin an aggressive push to raise money in anticipation of the second-term governor’s hoped-for announcement.”
GOP Leaders Pull Abortion Bill After Revolt
“Bowing to the wishes of several moderates and women members, House Republican leaders pulled a controversial anti-abortion bill from consideration late Wednesday night, a move sure to enrage anti-abortion activists, who will descend on Capitol Hill Thursday for their annual March for Life,” National Journal reports.
“Some Republicans worried that the 20-week abortion measure might alienate millennials and female voters. But many female lawmakers were also furious over its clause stating that women can be exempt from the ban in cases of rape only if they reported the rape to authorities.”
Headline of the Day
“Breast implant leak delays congressman’s wife’s bigamy trial”
Boehner Snubs Obama While Inviting Netanyahu
House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) “invited Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to address a joint meeting of Congress on Feb. 11 — an invitation the White House called a breach of normal protocol,” Roll Call reports.
“Boehner said at a press conference that he did not consult the White House prior to sending out the invitation, as is customary when it comes to coordinating such joint sessions… Boehner told members of the Republican conference Wednesday that he wanted to send a clear message of support for Israel to the White House and to the world.”
GOP Translation of Obama’s Speech
GOP pollster Neil Newhouse translates President Obama’s State of the Union address:
“You won nothing in November. The 2014 election had no consequences for my Administration whatsoever. You may have beaten my party and members of my team in the mid-term elections, but you’ve never beaten me. And, now you never will. All this talk about compromise and working together means you do what I want, because I’m not meeting you halfway on anything. My veto pen is ready and inked up. I will fight you and your agenda til the movers come on January 20th, 2017. I am still the President.”
Senate Votes That Climate Change is Real
The U.S. Senate voted 98-1 in favor of a an amendment stating that “climate change is real and is not a hoax,” The Hill reports.
“The provision offered by Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) to put Republicans on record about climate change ahead of the 2016 election passed with near unanimous support, with only Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), the chairman of the campaign committee for Senate Republicans, voting no. In a surprise, one of the Senate’s staunchest climate change skeptics, Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK), voted in favor of the amendment.”
Lawmaker Elected While in Jail Faces New Felony Charges
Virginia lawmaker Joseph Morrissey (D), “who was elected to the House of Delegates while serving a jail term now faces felony charges for allegedly entering a forged document into court and lying under oath,” the Washington Post reports.
“The new charges raise anew the possibility of sanctions or even expulsion for Morrissey in the House, where his colleagues expressed chagrin at the continuing drama and said they were considering their options.”
CNN Plans a Political Game Show
CNN is producing a political game show, TVNewser reports.
“Insiders tell us the show will be hosted by Anderson Cooper and will air on Presidents’ Day, Feb. 16. If it’s successful, further episodes would go into production. We hear the program will be a quiz style game show, focused on presidential politics.”
