Political Wire


Become a member to get many great benefits -- exclusive analysis, trending news, a private podcast, no ads and more!


Where We Stand

By 6 Comments

Morning Line has an excellent summary of last night’s election results:

SENATE:
Was: 53-45 Democratic advantage with two independents caucusing with the Democrats

Now: 52-43 Republican advantage with two independents. There are still three races that have not yet been called — Virginia, Alaska and Louisiana, but Republicans’ number could move up to 54 seats. They’re leading in Alaska and Rep. Bill Cassidy is the favorite in a head-to-head runoff Dec. 6 with incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu in Louisiana.

Net gain: +7 currently, could get up to +9.

HOUSE:
Was: 234-201 Republican advantage

Now: 242-174 Republican advantage with 19 seats that have still not been called. But when all the counting is done, Republicans could get up to 250 seats, which is what NBC is projecting. Democrats picked up one seat in Florida, but lost 14.

Net gain: +13 currently, could get up to +19 give or take a few seats.

GOVERNORS:
Was: 29-21 Republican advantage

Now: 31-15 Republican advantage with four races not yet called: Alaska, Colorado, Vermont and Connecticut. Currently, Democrats lead in Colorado, Vermont and Connecticut. By the way, despite the record number of governors at risk, just two incumbents potentially could wind up losing (Pat Quinn, D, in Illinois and Sean Parnell, R, in Alaska) if the Democrats in Colorado and Connecticut, who are leading, win. By the way, in a symbolic blow to Democrats, Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin did not reach the necessary 50 percent and now the legislature will decide his fate. He is expected to be reelected because it is Democratic-controlled.

Net gain: +3, could drop to +2 if Sean Parnell, who is currently trailing, loses to independent Bill Walker.

All Politics Is National

By 31 Comments

Amy Walter: “Democrats believed they could help isolate and insulate their vulnerable Democrats from an unpopular president by making each contest about the individual candidates. Democrats hoped that the tainted GOP brand combined with incumbent candidates with solid political pedigrees who ‘knew their states’ could prevail over the country’s pessimistic mood. It didn’t work.”


You're reading the free version of Political Wire

Upgrade to a paid membership to unlock full access. The process is quick and easy. You can even use Apple Pay.




Obama to Discuss Midterm Election Results

By 80 Comments

President Obama will hold a news conference this afternoon, “facing the White House press corps one day after Democrats were blown out in the midterm elections,” The Hill reports.

“The president, aides say, is anxious to get to work, telling staff he wants them to make the most out of every day of his remaining time in office. And the administration is hoping to telegraph a willingness to work with new Republican leadership in light of Tuesday’s stinging rebuke.”

In 2006, President George W. Bush called the wave sweeping Republicans out of office a “thumping.” In 2010, President Obama called a similar landslide election a “shellacking.”

What will he call this year’s election?

Making It All About Obama

By 17 Comments

Washington Post: “From the outset of the campaign, Republicans had a simple plan: Don’t make mistakes, and make it all about Obama, Obama, Obama. Every new White House crisis would bring a new Republican ad. And every Democratic incumbent would be attacked relentlessly for voting with the president 97 or 98 or 99 percent of the time.”

New York Times: “Tensions between the Democratic Senate candidates and the president kept bubbling up throughout the campaign. It did not help that the Democrats defending their seats felt that Mr. Obama had refused to come to terms with how damaged his political brand had become in their states, and how perilous his embrace was.”

GOP Turnout Machine Worked as Predicted

By 13 Comments

“At Republicans headquarters in Washington, top strategists predicted days in advance that the GOP would win the Senate and gain House seats despite polls suggesting many races could go either way,” the Washington Examiner reports.

“The party points to the $100 million it has spent overhauling the way it campaigns, finally giving it a data and analytics-driven operation that can compete with the Democratic machine built by President Obama.”

“Just as importantly, McNulty and his staff decided to do what the Democrats did and focus their energies almost entirely on getting out the vote among groups highly likely to be Republican but don’t usually vote in midterm elections. Final statistics are still not in, but McNulty predicted that the GOP would maintain its historic midterm turnout advantage because the party didn’t waste resources reaching out to people who were already reliable Republican voters.”

Far Worse Than Democrats Feared

By 46 Comments

“Campaign 2014 surpassed its advance billing, as an electorate that was deeply unhappy with all its leaders handed the biggest rebuke to President Obama and the Democrats by giving Republicans control of the Senate. For Democrats, election night turned out far worse than any of them had feared,” Dan Balz writes.

“At every turn in almost every state, the Republicans proved superior. They won nearly every competitive contest in states held by Democrats and held on to the states that had looked like they might go to the Democrats. Instead of slipping into the majority, the GOP stormed to power in the Senate.”

“That wasn’t all. In a year when incumbent governors in both parties were endangered, the Republicans prevailed and the Democrats did not, including in some of the bluest states in the nation.”

Obama Fights for Relevance

By 3 Comments

New York Times: “The Republican capture of the Senate culminated a season of discontent for the president — and may yet open a period of even deeper frustration. Sagging in the polls and unwelcome in most competitive races across the country, Mr. Obama bristled as the last campaign that would influence his presidency played out while he sat largely on the sidelines. He privately complained that it should not be a judgment on him.”

“But in a hyperactive, deeply polarized time in history, Mr. Obama now faces a daunting challenge in reasserting his relevance in a capital that will soon enough shift its attention to the battle to succeed him. If the hope-and-change phase of his presidency is long over, he wants at least to produce a period of progress and consolidation to complete his time in the White House.”

Wall Street Journal: “The president now finds himself seeking to rebound with a public that, however they voted Tuesday, is deeply dissatisfied with his leadership.”

Axelrod Predicts White House Shake Up

By 13 Comments

Former Obama adviser David Axelrod told MSNBC that he predicts changes at the White House in the aftermath of the midterm elections.

Said Axelrod: “Washington always wants you to throw out bodies after a bad election, so you’ll hear that hew and cry. But it’s also been a turbulent couple of years — a lot of his team has been there since the beginning. It’s a natural time to evaluate whether you’ve got all the pieces in place that you need, and he should do that.”

When asked if that should include a staff shake-up, Axelrod responded: “Oh, I think so. I mean, I think he will.”

2014 Midterm Election Results

By 454 Comments

I’ll be tracking the key races here:

KY-Sen: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will defeat Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) in Kentucky, according to NBC News projections.

VA-Sen: In a race that almost no one thought was close, there has been no projection of a winner yet.

NH-Sen: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) will defeat Scott Brown (R)  in New Hampshire, according to ABC News.  In violation of the rules, Fox News broadcast exit polls from the New Hampshire almost two hours before polls closed in that state, Politico reports.

AR-Sen: Tom Cotton (R) will beat Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) in Arkansas

SD-Sen: Mike Rounds (R) will win the three-way race against Larry Pressler (I) and Rick Weiland (D).

LA-Sen: Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and Bill Cassidy (R) will head to a December run off.

CO-Sen: Cory Gardner (R) will defeat Sen. Mark Udall (D), according to Fox News and AP.

FL-Gov: Gov. Rick Scott (R) will defeat Charlie Crist (D) for governor.

IA-Sen: Joni Ernst (R) will beat Bruce Braley (R), according to WHO.

WI-Gov: Scott Walker (R) will defeat Mary Burke (D) in the race for governor, according to ABC News and Fox News.

MI-Gov: Rick Snyder (R) will defeat challenger Mark Schauer (D) for governor, says NBC News.

GA-Sen: David Perdue (R) will defeat Michelle Nunn (D) in the Senate race, according to CNN and NBC News.

KS-Sen: Sen. Pat Roberts (R) has fended off a challenge from Greg Orman (I), CBS News reports.

IL-Gov: Bruce Rauner (D) has defeated Gov. Pat Quinn, NBC News reports.

NC-Sen: Thom Tillis (R) will defeat Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC).

Bottom line: This was a wave election. Nearly every close race was won solidly by Republicans. Republicans are likely to end up with 53 or 54 seats in the Senate and may have more if a couple others — Angus King, Joe Manchin — cross party lines.

Live Election Models

By 11 Comments

The Upshot: “To provide a better gauge of results than the raw vote count, The Upshot is adjusting Senate returns, based on where those returns come from and which parts of a state have not yet reported their votes. If we know the vote from a Democratic-leaning city is outstanding, for example, we will adjust the count toward the Democrat.”

FiveThirtyEight: “Throughout the evening on our live blog, we’ll be publishing an updated probability that Republicans or Democrats win the Senate, along with their probabilities of winning the key Senate races. These probabilities will use FiveThirtyEight’s final pre-election forecast as a baseline, which gave Republicans a 76 percent chance of winning the Senate. But they’ll deviate from them as our partners at ABC News project winners in each state.”

Quote of the Day

By 6 Comments

“Absent a strike of lightning, I do not believe we’re going to pick up the House tonight.”

— Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), quoted by Politico, on the Democratic campaign efforts.

The Senate Could Have 3 Independents

By 13 Comments

New York Times: “If Greg Orman wins in Kansas, there will be three officially independent senators, an unprecedented moment, except for one thing: Bernie Sanders, the independent from Vermont is not a centrist but a liberal to the left of most Democrats. Mr. Orman could make a powerful ally for the other independent, Angus King of Maine, who could try to build a voting block in the center that would influence both parties. Both Mr. Orman and Mr. King, who currently caucuses with Democrats, have hinted that they are open to aligning with whichever party is in the majority.”

Someone Will Be Wrong Tonight

By 52 Comments

Sam Wang: “From 2004 to 2012, only thirteen Senate races have had margins of less than three percentage points in the week before the election. Of these, four were won by the trailing candidate. One more, the Florida 2004 race, was tied in the polls, and was eventually won by the Republican, Mel Martinez, by 2 percentage points. Scoring that one as half correct, the overall rate of wins by a front-runner is 65%, a bit better than chance.”

“In light of that, the probability that all six close Senate races (AK, CO, IA, KS, NH, and NC) will be won by the candidate in the lead is only 7%. A wrong call is almost inevitable.”

Why Democrats Aren’t Voting

By 64 Comments

Marc Ambinder says it’s a myth “that Democrats do poorly in midterm elections generally. In 1998, they did not. In 2006, they did not. In 2002 and 2010, Republicans gained seats in both chambers. Setting aside the structural engineering of politics — the gerrymandering of districts, for example — there are some things the Democrats did, and did not do, that hurt them.”

“The first is that they broke their promise on immigration. To be sure, Republicans win the obstructionist trophy on immigration reform. But Obama all but promised to act in their stead. He did not… Had Obama made some big gesture accompanied by strong executive action to pull out of the shadows millions of Latinos, his party might well have rewarded him. Not just Hispanic voters, but other Democratic voters who supported his position. If you don’t give someone a concrete reason to vote, something they can hang their minds around, then they’ve got to be persuaded by an appeal to their fears.”

“Democrats know that President Obama remains in charge. They know that the GOP can’t do anything awful for the next two years. Democrats tend not be motivated by judges and cultural issues; their base was not set up that way, the Republicans were. Democrats are also confident that they’ll keep the presidency in 2016, and if they pay attention to politics, they know that 2016 is cyclically shaping up to be a better year for them. So — really — why vote? Or, put another way, why go out of your way to vote?”

What Will Tonight’s Results Tell Us About 2016?

By 28 Comments

New York Times: “Republicans are closely watching Colorado, where Senator Mark Udall and Gov. John W. Hickenlooper, both Democrats, are in danger of losing. Mr. Obama won the state twice, and with a younger, increasingly progressive population, Colorado has been trending Democratic. If Representative Cory Gardner can defeat Mr. Udall, who made his campaign almost exclusively about abortion rights and contraception, it will demonstrate that Republicans still have strength in a state that could be essential to regaining the presidency.”

“Democrats are hoping their Georgia candidates, Michelle Nunn for the Senate and Jason Carter for governor, can either win or at least post strong showings. Of the states that the two parties did not compete for in the 2012 presidential race, Georgia was the closest (Mr. Obama lost by seven points), and it is gradually becoming more of a polyglot hub than an Old South vestige. If Ms. Nunn or Mr. Carter wins or loses narrowly while drawing less than 30 percent of the white vote, it suggests that Georgia will be a competitive presidential state sooner than many observers expected.”

Wall Street Journal: “Members of both parties, however, caution against reading too much into Tuesday’s results. The complexion of the electorate is expected to be markedly different in 2016. Turnout by Democratic-friendly voting blocs, including minorities, young people and unmarried women, tends to drop off in midterm elections and surge in presidential election years.”

An Exciting Election Day

By 8 Comments

Jonathan Bernstein: “I love Election Day. And this is a good one, with lots of great stories. We have a former senator from Massachusetts trying to make a comeback in New Hampshire, and a former Republican senator running as an independent in South Dakota. In Kansas, an independent has an excellent chance of winning. As for gubernatorial elections, there are more toss-ups than you can shake a stick at, including a race in Alaska where the independent candidate is supported by both Democrats and former Governor Sarah Palin. The career of at least one Republican presidential candidate, Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin, hangs in the balance; at least one other, John Kasich of Ohio, would get a boost from an expected big win.”

“We’ll probably get a new Senate majority, though there’s still an unusual amount of uncertainty. We could get a Republican gubernatorial landslide — in New England of all places. Or we could have a Republican sweep in the Senate, and major Democratic gains in governors along with large Republican pickups in state legislatures, despite all the talk of polarization and party voting. And we’ll get the usual mix of new legislators in Washington and the states, all sorts of serious aspiring lawmakers and total crackpots.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

Praise for Political Wire

“There are a lot of blogs and news sites claiming to understand politics, but only a few actually do. Political Wire is one of them.”

— Chuck Todd, host of “Meet the Press”

“Concise. Relevant. To the point. Political Wire is the first site I check when I’m looking for the latest political nugget. That pretty much says it all.”

— Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report

“Political Wire is one of only four or five sites that I check every day and sometimes several times a day, for the latest political news and developments.”

— Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report

“The big news, delicious tidbits, pearls of wisdom — nicely packaged, constantly updated… What political junkie could ask for more?”

— Larry Sabato, Center for Politics, University of Virginia

“Political Wire is a great, great site.”

— Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe”

“Taegan Goddard has a knack for digging out political gems that too often get passed over by the mainstream press, and for delivering the latest electoral developments in a sharp, no frills style that makes his Political Wire an addictive blog habit you don’t want to kick.”

— Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post

“Political Wire is one of the absolute must-read sites in the blogosphere.”

— Glenn Reynolds, founder of Instapundit

“I rely on Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire for straight, fair political news, he gets right to the point. It’s an eagerly anticipated part of my news reading.”

— Craig Newmark, founder of Craigslist.