A new Survey USA poll in New Hampshire finds Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) just ahead of Scott Brown (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 46%.
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Deadlocked in North Carolina
A new Survey USA poll in North Carolina finds Sen. Kay Hagan (D) and Thom Tillis (R) locked in a dead heat, 40% to 40%, with Libertarian Sean Haugh (L) at 7%.
Gardner Has Edge in Colorado
A new Survey USA poll in Colorado finds Cory Gardner (R) leading Sen. Mark Udall (D) in the U.S. Senate race by three points, 46% to 42%.
Orman Maintains Lead in Kansas
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Kansas finds Greg Orman (I) leads Sen. Pat Roberts (R) in the U.S. Senate race by three points, 44% to 41%, with Libertarian Randall Batson at 5%.
In a head to head match up without Batson, Orman has a 46% to 43% advantage.
Still Very Close in Florida
A new St. Pete Polls survey in Florida finds Gov. Rick Scott (R) holds a one-point
lead over Charlie Crist (D) in the race for governor, 44% to 43%.
Quote of the Day
“We’re in a very dangerous period and I think it’s more threatening than the period before 9/11. I think 9/11 will turn out to be not nearly as bad as the next mass casualty attack against the United States — which, if and when it comes, will be with something far deadlier than with airline tickets and box cutters.”
— Dick Cheney, in an interview with the Weekly Standard.
Will LePage Be the First 30/30 Governor?
Smart Politics examined the results of approximately 3,000 gubernatorial elections conducted in post-colonial times and found that no governor has been popularly elected with less than 40 percent of the vote in back-to-back elections in U.S. history. Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) could become the first: elected with 38.1 percent of the vote in 2010 and frequently polling in the high 30s – sometimes with the lead – in 2014.
Republicans Make Big Push in North Carolina
The National Republican Senatorial Committee is planning to reserve more than $6 million in additional North Carolina airtime Monday, Politico reports.
“Seeing overnight tracking numbers that show the race tightening and Republican Thom Tillis in striking distance, NRSC strategists have authorized their independent-expenditure arm to spend an extra $6 million to $6.5 million — on top of the $3 million or so that was already planned.”
New Poll Gives Ernst the Edge in Iowa
A new Rasmussen survey in Iowa finds Joni Ernst (R) leading Bruce Braley (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 45%.
Rounds Holds Small Lead in South Dakota
A new Harper Polling survey in South Dakota finds Mike Rounds (R) leading a four-way race for U.S. Senate with 37%, followed by Rick Weiland (D) at 33%, Larry Pressler (I) at 23% and Gordon Howie (I) at 5%.
Futures Market Gives GOP Midterm Advantage
The New York Times reports that although Intrade was shut down last year, a similar futures market called Betfair in Britain gives Republicans a 69% chance of winning the U.S. Senate.
“Even though markets are prone to their own failures, they have amassed a better record of accuracy than even the most sophisticated models that are based on fundamentals and polling. The point is that while markets aren’t perfect, in practice they’re less imperfect than the other election forecasters.”
Romney Tells an Obama Joke
National Journal notes that while campaigning in Iowa, Mitt Romney told a joke about President Obama:
“President Obama went to the bank to cash a check and he didn’t have his ID. And the teller said you’ve got to prove who you are.”
“He said, ‘How should I do that?’ She said the other day Phil Mickelson came in, he didn’t have his ID but he set up a little cup on the ground, took a golf ball, putted it right into that cup so they knew it was Phil Mickelson. They cashed his check. And then Andre Agassi came in. And Andre Agassi didn’t have his ID either. He put a little target on the wall, took a tennis ball and racquet- hit it onto that target time. We knew that was Andre Agassi so we cashed his check.”
“And she said to him, ‘Is there anything you can do to prove who you are?’ And [Obama] said, ‘I don’t have a clue.'”
“And she said, ‘Well, Mr. President, do you want your money in small bills or large bills.'”
Judge Strikes Down Gay Marriage Ban in Alaska
“A federal judge ruled Sunday that Alaska’s ban on gay marriage is unconstitutional, paving the way for same-sex couples to begin marrying in the state for the first time. The state quickly said it would appeal the decision by U.S. District Court Judge Timothy Burgess, despite recent higher court rulings striking down similar bans around the country,” the Alaska Dispatch News reports.
Democratic Losses May Force Clinton to Announce Earlier
Hillary Clinton “may not have the luxury of waiting until early next year to declare her intentions to run for president in 2016,” the New York Times reports.
“If Democrats lose control of the Senate in the midterm elections, the party may need to quickly pivot to the presidential campaign, several people close to Mrs. Clinton said. The Democratic Party would look to Mrs. Clinton ‘as its Noah’s ark,’ a vessel on which voters and donors could channel their enthusiasm and frustration, said one of these people, who could discuss the internal deliberations only on the condition of anonymity.”
GOP Donors Finally Open Their Checkbooks
“Republican allies are pumping millions of dollars into a final swarm of television ads in the run-up to Election Day, hoping to blunt Democratic attacks and tip the Senate back to GOP control,” the Washington Post reports.
“But much of the advertising by outside groups is coming later — and at a much steeper cost — than many on the right had hoped, largely because top conservative donors were slow to open their checkbooks. That foot-dragging has forced super PACs and politically active nonprofit groups to pay a huge premium for last-minute ad buys, and it shows the extent to which their top financiers have dictated the timing and strategy of outside groups this year.”
Official Says Budget Cuts Prevented Ebola Vaccine
“As the federal government frantically works to combat the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, and as it responds to a second diagnosis of the disease at home, one of the country’s top health officials says a vaccine likely would have already been discovered were it not for budget cuts,” the Huffington Post reports.
“Dr. Francis Collins, the head of the National Institutes of Health, said that a decade of stagnant spending has ‘slowed down’ research on all items, including vaccinations for infectious diseases. As a result, he said, the international community has been left playing catch-up on a potentially avoidable humanitarian catastrophe.”
GOP Money Pours Into Judicial Races
“A national Republican group is spending heavily on judicial elections in some states, prompting judges to get more involved in their campaigns as they seek to hold on to their seats,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The effort to influence judicial elections is largely Republican–for now, no Democratic group is systematically contributing to such races… The money pouring in from out-of-state groups is upsetting genteel traditions under which judges in some states faced little opposition and avoided the ethically tricky process of soliciting big money and stumping for votes from constituents they might face in court. The attention is an acknowledgment of the role that state supreme courts play in shaping the business climate and social and government policies.”
Conservatives Still Don’t Trust Christie
New York Times: “With the contretemps over lane closings on the George Washington Bridge on the back burner for now and Mr. Christie laying groundwork for a Republican presidential run, the persistent skepticism, unease and, in some cases, distrust that he faces from social and religious conservatives may be the biggest and least understood obstacle in his path.”
“Yet Mr. Christie, who prides himself on his defiance of political convention, refuses to communicate the kind of emphatic, crowd-pleasing message that would leave him unassailable with that crucial constituency, and he has shown little enthusiasm for befriending its self-appointed leadership, elements of which are turning on him with speed and vigor.”
