Mike Huckabee “says that losing his top spokeswoman isn’t a sign of things to come, and he’s still all in on the 2016 campaign,” Politico reports.
Said Huckabee: “We hate to lose Alice, but she’s decided that — she’s I think, exhausted from the campaign. We’re moving forward … If people try to read more into it than is there, they’re going to be making a huge mistake.”
Nate Cohn says “it’s still too soon to say Mr. Trump is the front-runner for the nomination. He has a high floor but a low ceiling, and although he has weathered many controversies, the toughest days are yet to come.”
“The polls already show initial signs of those challenges, like Ted Cruz’s lead in Iowa; the number of Republicans who say they would not support him; his weakness in polls of verified voters; and his smaller or nonexistent leads in one-on-one matchups against likely rivals.”
“His chances of winning — which are real, even if not good — depend much more on the weaknesses of his opponents than his own strengths. The good news for Mr. Trump is that the opposition is flawed enough to entertain such an outcome.”
New York Times: “Mr. Cruz, who is showing signs of consolidating support among hard-line conservatives, is likely to come under sharp attack. Issues like national security and immigration will take on greater urgency. And candidates who are struggling to leapfrog into contention are sure to try to seize on one of the last ripe opportunities to do so before voters in the early nominating states begin making up their minds.”
“But while much has changed, one figure remains the same: Mr. Trump, the leader in national polls and the field’s chief provocateur and pacesetter, whose sometimes outrageous and demagogic comments have not only roiled the race but also amplified divisions between party leaders and the conservative grass roots.”
Politico: “The hardest hits, though, are expected to come from Rubio, who’s locked horns repeatedly with Cruz on national security matters.”
Politico: “Want a taste of what sort of debate this will be? Just watch the promo CNN has been running for the last month, which features a rapid-fire screenshot of each candidate paired with pulsing background music. Sources briefed on the network’s plans say it’s looking for a two-hour slugfest full of confrontation — the kind of program CNN boss Jeff Zucker loves.”
A new Washington Post-ABC News national poll finds Donald Trump leading the Republican primary with 38%, followed by Ted Cruz at 15%, Marco Tubio at 12%, Ben Carson at 12% and Jeb Bush at 5%.
Big caveat: “At this point in the campaign, even with the first votes fewer than 50 days away, national polls are not always the reliable predictors of where presidential nominating contests are heading… National surveys can change quickly and sometimes dramatically after voters in the early states begin to register their preferences.”
Politico: “Presidential candidates typically take a timeout from the paid-speech circuit to avoid potential conflicts of interest and thorny restrictions on mixing campaign and personal business. But that hasn’t stopped Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina or Mike Huckabee, who chose to fulfill commitments to the nonprofits and business groups that signed them up for five-figure fees before they jumped into the race.”
New York Times: “Now, the largest statistical study of its kind, examining elections held in 17 countries from 1722 to 2015, has found that elected heads of government lived 2.7 fewer years and experienced a 23 percent greater risk of premature death than the defeated office seekers.”
“The analysis tested the hypothesis that elected presidents, prime ministers and chancellors experience accelerated aging and premature death because of the stresses of political life. The authors compared 279 elected heads of government with the 261 runners-up whom they defeated and who never served as heads of state. The researchers determined the number of years each competitor lived after the last election in which they ran, and compared the findings with the average life span for an individual of the same age and sex in each candidate’s country during the election year.”
“Congressional leaders were nearing agreement on a $1.15 trillion spending bill and year-end tax legislation Monday, but were still haggling over a handful of thorny policy issues,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Politico: “The discussions — which are being led by Speaker Paul Ryan — are remarkably different in tenor than end-of-year budget debates of the past. Capitol Hill is not in hysteria, and Ryan and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) are swapping offers without the typical finger-pointing and brinkmanship that has characterized previous versions of these debates.”
Politico: “Now, heading into an election-year political environment that won’t exactly tilt toward legislative headway, McConnell is nonetheless promising that the Senate won’t get stuck in the doldrums. Topping his agenda is a push to pass all 12 appropriations bills, a goal that’s eluded Congress since 1994. The larger objective is to make the case to voters in 2016 that the GOP Senate is in capable hands — and so they should keep it that way.”
“The Senate leader will have to navigate some serious obstacles to overcome election-year inertia next year, starting with the four GOP senators running for president and Democrats who are licking their chops to retake the chamber. But the election isn’t a reason to sit back, McConnell said.”
Washington Post: “Fiorina gained a key opportunity this fall when she rose in the polls after two strong debate performances that showcased her direct delivery style and command of the issues. But with businessman Donald Trump monopolizing media attention, and without the deep campaign organization of the other leading candidates, Fiorina is seeing her opportunity slip away.”
“Her road back to relevance could prove challenging, with voting in Iowa and New Hampshire just weeks away. The effort begins Tuesday in Nevada, where CNN will host the final Republican debate of the year.”
Sen. Ted Cruz urged his supporters to help Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s short-lived presidential campaign pay off its remaining debt, The Week reports.
A new Pew Research survey finds that 74% of Americans say they “have given a lot or some thought to the candidates, higher than the shares saying this at comparable points in the past two presidential campaigns… Nearly seven-in-ten (69%) say they have watched at least some of the televised debates between the candidates.”
“In December 2007 – the most recent election in which there were contested nominations in both parties – just 43% reported watching any of the debates.”
New York Times: “From George Bush to his two political sons, the Bush family has always been squeamish about messy, personal attacks on rivals, preferring to outsource the dirty work to aides. But now, in an election cycle where the Republican Party’s grass-roots wing is angry and looking for a presidential candidate who projects a visceral sense of their frustration, some of Jeb Bush’s supporters say he may need to learn the fine art of negative campaigning.”
“That could be tricky for a man whose family code is one of polite gentility and even bipartisanship, not angry yelling and boorishness. That hardball, in-the-trenches style of politics, said friends, aides and scholars of the three men, goes against the ethos of the blue-blooded dynasty with roots in New England, where manners and decorum were ingrained not just at the dinner table but in the halls and playing fields of Andover.”
“If elected, Mr. Trump, I can state unequivocally, will be the healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency.”
— Dr. Jacob Bornstein, in a letter certifying Donald Trump’s health.
New York Times: “Things are likely to get even more awkward when they are standing side by side with millions watching. And Mr. Trump could amplify attacks on Mr. Cruz over issues like immigration in ways no other candidate can. Nonetheless, Mr. Cruz has durable popularity with conservatives and with the Tea Party faction, and he may be more difficult to slay with insults than other opponents in the race.”
“That political dynamic is being watched closely from across the aisle by Hillary Clinton’s campaign, which views Mr. Trump as an unlikely nominee but a hard-to-predict factor in the race. Many of Mrs. Clinton’s advisers say they believe that Mr. Cruz is the most likely nominee, according to people briefed on their views. That idea is not unanimous, but it is prevailing, and, as Politico reported, it is said to be the view of Bill Clinton, among others.”
A new Quinnipiac poll in Iowa finds Donald Trump edging Ted Cruz in the GOP presidential race, 28% to 27%, followed by Marco Rubio at 14% and Ben Carson at 10%. No other candidate above 5%.
Said pollster Peter Brown: “One good sign for Sen. Cruz in his battle with Trump is that voters view him much more favorably than Trump, meaning that the Texas lawmaker may have a higher potential upside.”
A new Loras College poll finds Cruz leading with 30%, followed by Trump at 23%, Carson at 11% and Rubio at 11%.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.