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Election Tests New Voting Rules

November 4, 2014 at 8:57 am EST By Taegan Goddard 3 Comments

“The obscure rules of elections will be under intense scrutiny on Tuesday as civic groups, political parties and the Department of Justice, concerned about fair play, monitor polling places for irregularities,” the New York Times reports.

“New rules to limit same-day registration or require photo identification will be in effect in some states, even as their constitutionality is argued in the courts. Most of the changes were adopted by Republican legislatures in the name of electoral integrity, even though evidence of voter fraud was negligible. They are opposed by Democrats who say tighter rules are aimed at discouraging minorities, poor people and college students from voting. All those groups tend to prefer Democrats.”

A New Level of Collaboration Between Candidates and Big Money

November 4, 2014 at 7:58 am EST By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments

“The 2014 midterm elections mark a new level of collaboration between candidates and independent groups, eroding the barrier that is supposed to separate those running for office from their big-money allies,” the Washington Post reports.

“The vast sums of cash raised by independent groups has reordered the political landscape, compelling campaigns to find new ways to communicate their wants and needs without officially coordinating with outside players. Such direct coordination is prohibited under 40-year-old campaign finance rules.”

“This is not how the system used to work. Just a decade ago, candidates shied away from being too closely associated with ‘soft money,’ for reasons of appearance and for fear of running afoul of election laws.”

Election Night Guide

November 3, 2014 at 3:33 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

DailyKos has an excellent hour-by-hour guide to watch Election Night returns.


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The Most Vulnerable of 2014

November 3, 2014 at 3:04 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Roll Call has updated its rankings of the 10 most vulnerable Senators and House Members.

No White House Shake Up

November 3, 2014 at 3:02 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Obama “is not preparing a dramatic overhaul of his staff in the event of a disastrous midterm election,” The Hill reports.

Said White House press secretary Josh Earnest: “I think what will be different is that there have been some presidents who have felt compelled in the aftermath of the midterm elections to publicly fire high-profile members of the administration. At this point I don’t anticipate that that will happen later this week.”

The Latest Senate Forecasts

November 3, 2014 at 2:11 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 1 Comment

Here are the latest probabilities of Republicans taking control of the U.S. Senate after the midterm elections:

Election Lab: 96%

FiveThirtyEight: 73%

The Upshot: 68%

Princeton: 63%

How Obama Dragged Democrats Down

November 3, 2014 at 2:10 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 4 Comments

Washington Post: “Obama’s journey from triumphant, validated Democratic hero to a political millstone weighing on his party’s chances is a tale of a second-term president quickly and repeatedly sidetracked by a series of crises — some self-inflicted — and the widely held perception that the White House has not managed them well.”

“Obama’s list of second-term leadership crises is a formidable one: the botched rollout of HealthCare.gov, long waits at Veterans Affairs hospitals, Edward Snowden’s disclosures of the National Security Agency’s secrets, a pileup of foreign children along the southwestern border, the threat of Islamist terrorists marauding across Syria and Iraq beheading foreigners, including Americans, and the arrival of the Ebola virus in the United States.”

Most Influential Billionaires in Politics

November 3, 2014 at 12:38 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Darrell West has updated his U.S. Billionaires Political Power Index to include recent election activism, campaign donations, and influence leading up to the 2014 midterms.

Republicans Aren’t Playing Expectations Game

November 3, 2014 at 10:40 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

National Journal: “In the game of expectations, it’s typical for parties to remain cautiously optimistic before a major election even when everything looks to be going their way. Republicans, however, are nearly gloating.”

Why a GOP Senate Won’t Matter

November 3, 2014 at 9:59 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Chait: “The legislative dynamics in Washington are very simple. Gridlock exists because Obama and House Republicans cannot agree on legislation. If Obama and the House could agree on legislation, their deal would be approved by a Democratic-controlled Senate or by a Republican-controlled Senate. There are no plausible circumstances in which the Senate would block a deal struck between the House and Obama, because, whichever party controls the Senate, its ideological center will sit comfortably inside in the enormous space between Obama and the House Republicans. Ergo, the party that controls the Senate has no impact on legislative outcomes.”

Perdue Ahead of Nunn in Georgia

November 3, 2014 at 9:11 am EST By Taegan Goddard 3 Comments

A new SurveyUSA poll in Georgia finds David Perdue (R) leading Michelle Nunn (D) by three points in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 44%.

In the race for governor, Gov. Nathan Deal (R) has a five point lead over challenger Jason Carter (D), 47% to 42%.

A new InsiderAdvantage poll also shows Perdue leading Nunn by three points, 48% to 45%.

Where the Real Power Lies

November 3, 2014 at 9:06 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

While everyone is focused on the battle for the U.S. Senate, John Oliver shows just how much power state legislatures wield while no one is watching.

[Read more…]

What It Takes

November 3, 2014 at 8:09 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

One of the all-time great election books, What It Takes by Richard Ben Cramer, is available for just $1.99 today from Amazon.

Quote of the Day

November 3, 2014 at 6:48 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A wave just doesn’t happen. Waves happen when every single member of a cause or a movement come together. This is our time, we need to crush it and push their heads under over and over and over again until they cannot breathe anymore.”

— New Hampshire GOP Chairman Jennifer Horn, quoted by NH Journal, on defeating Democrats in the midterm elections.

An Election About Obama

November 3, 2014 at 6:41 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Hill: “Less than 24 hours before Election Day, Republicans have what they want: a referendum on President Obama. GOP candidates are training their closing arguments on Obama, full of confidence that voter dissatisfaction with the White House will punch their ticket to a Senate majority.”

First Read: “Whatever the concern from the voter is, the GOP handed them Obama. Tired of gridlock? Look at Obama. The economy isn’t coming back in your area, look to Obama and his regulations. Democrats did not exactly present an alternative case. The GOP message was clear, even if it hasn’t hit critical mass with the remaining undecided voters who do seem upset at Obama and skeptical of the GOP’s promises of change.”

Malloy Holds Narrow Lead in Connecticut

November 3, 2014 at 6:34 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut finds that with independent candidate Joe Visconti out of the race for governor, Gov. Dannel Malloy (D) still leads challenger Tom Foley (R) by three points, 47% to 44%.

Crist Edges Scott in Race for Florida Governor

November 3, 2014 at 6:33 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida finds Charlie Crist (D) edging Gov. Rick Scott (R) in the race for governor, 42% to 41%, with Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie at 7%.

New Poll Shows Dead Heat in Iowa

November 3, 2014 at 6:32 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Quinnipiac poll in Iowa finds Bruce Braley (D) has closed the gap with Joni Ernst (R), leaving the Iowa U.S. Senate race a 47% to 47% tie.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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