A new Quinnipiac poll in Iowa finds Joni Ernst (R) just ahead of Bruce Braley (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 46%.

Said pollster Peter Brown: “Throughout the campaign, Sen. Ernst has had an edge on likability. If she makes it across the finish line first that may be the key. Her campaign theme that she is the ‘farm girl next door’ who made good has taken her from unknown state legislator to a serious shot at the United States Senate.”

In the wake of a scandal involving Oregon’s First Lady Cylvia Hayes, a new SurveyUSA poll in Oregon finds Dennis Richardson (R) now leading Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) in the race for governor by 55% to 39% among those following the story.

Richardson was stunned, telling KXL, “It was just amazing to see that kind of a flip.”

The Oregonian has a big caveat: “The methodology notes a weakness. The poll’s essential question was asked of the 407 respondents who said they’re following the Hayes story — and those may or may not be likely voters.”

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) “is summoning his top strategists and political advisers to Washington one week after the November election for a strategy session over his widely expected 2016 presidential bid,” National Journal reports.

“The gathering of Paul’s top lieutenants in the nation’s capital has been quietly organized by Doug Stafford, his chief political strategist, who began reaching out to key figures in Paul’s political world earlier this month… Stafford has told invitees to reserve Nov. 12 on their calendar both during the day and into the night. Paul himself is expected to attend some of the meetings.”

A new New England College poll in New Hampshire finds Scott Brown (R) is slightly in front of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 47%.

A new Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College poll in Wisconsin finds Gov. Scott Walker (R) has a slight edge over challenger Mary Burke (D), 47% to 46%.

The DSCC is jumping back into the Kentucky Senate race after stopping its TV ad buy last week, The Hill reports.

A DSCC official confirmed the committee plans to spend another $650,000 on TV to bolster Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) against Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) and the Senate Majority PAC is also poised to go back on the air with a high six-figures TV buy.

“Though McConnell still likely has an edge, Democrats say the race has tightened over the past few days.”

A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll in Colorado finds Cory Gardner (R) leading Sen. Mark Udall (D) in the U.S. Senate race by seven points, 46% to 39%.

Said pollster David Paleologos: “As President Obama goes, Mark Udall goes. Obama’s unpopularity is significantly affecting Udall’s chances for reelection in November, as his opponent has consistently tied him to President Obama. By the looks of both President Obama’s and Mark Udall’s unfavorability ratings, that message is beginning to stick with Colorado voters.”

A new St. Leo University poll in Florida finds Charlie Crist (D) leading Gov. Rick Scott in the race for governor by three points, 43% to 40%.

When Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) was asked to say “a few good things” about his two challengers — Mike Michaud (D) and Eliot Cutler (I) — in last night’s gubernatorial debate, he was left nearly speechless.

Said LePage: “My opponents? I don’t know, I don’t follow them.”

At a recent event, Gov. Chris Christie (R) “stressed the need to keep Republicans in charge of states — and overseeing state-level voting regulations — ahead of the next presidential election,” the Bergen Record reports.

Said Christie: “Would you rather have Rick Scott in Florida overseeing the voting mechanism, or Charlie Crist? Would you rather have Scott Walker in Wisconsin overseeing the voting mechanism, or would you rather have Mary Burke? Who would you rather have in Ohio, John Kasich or Ed FitzGerald?”

A new Monmouth poll in Iowa finds Joni Ernst (R) with a one point lead over Bruce Braley (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 46%.

Key finding: “Early voters support Braley by a 54% to 41% margin over Ernst. However, Ernst has a 50% to 42% advantage among the two-thirds of the electorate who have yet to vote.”

“U.S. Senate candidate Mike Rounds (R) as governor knew his Cabinet secretary, Richard Benda, was going to work for an investor in the Northern Beef Packers plant about the time he approved Benda’s proposal to give the plant more state aid — or found out immediately afterwards but was not alarmed,” the Sioux Falls Argus Leader reports.

In Michigan’s 11th congressional district, Bobby McKenzie (D) has put out one of the toughest attack ads of the cycle in his uphill race against David Trott (R).

The Fix: “Trott is an attorney who specializes in foreclosures. The premise of the ad is the 2011 eviction of 101-year-old Texana Hollis from her Detroit home after missed payments by her son.”

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For the first time in the WBUR weekly tracking poll, Charlie Baker (R) is leading Martha Coakley (D) in the race to become the next governor of Massachusetts, 43% to 42%.

Said pollster Steve Koczela: “It’s one of several polls which over the last week or so have shown a movement toward Baker. Coakley has essentially been treading water while Baker’s been climbing.”

Harry Enten estimates that there is a 53% chance we’ll be able to project which party controls the U.S. Senate near the November 4 election and a 47% chance the midterms go to overtime.

George P. Bush told Politico that his father, Jeb Bush, will decide whether to run for president in 2016 “very shortly,” and that “among the sacrifices he’s weighing is putting aside his lucrative business dealings, which reportedly range from chairing a private equity and consulting firm to giving well-paid speeches.”

“Also key will be how others in the Bush clan, including Jeb Bush’s publicity-shy wife, Columba, ultimately come down, and whether Jeb Bush really wants to make such a serious time commitment, his son said.”