Political Wire

Supreme Court Poised to Deal Setback to Unions

January 11, 2016 at 2:21 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 33 Comments

New York Times: “The justices appeared divided along familiar lines during an extended argument over whether government workers who choose not to join unions may nonetheless be required to help pay for collective bargaining. The court’s conservative majority appeared ready to say that such compelled financial support violates the First Amendment”

“The best hope for a victory for the unions had rested with Justice Antonin Scalia, who has written and said things sympathetic to their position. But he was consistently hostile on Monday.”

Trump Holds Edge Over Cruz in Iowa

January 11, 2016 at 12:30 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 31 Comments

A new Quinnipiac poll in Iowa finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 31%, followed by Ted Cruz at 29%, Marco Rubio at 15%, Ben Carson at 7% and Chris Christie at 4%.

Said pollster Peter Brown: “Voters like Sen. Ted Cruz better than Donald Trump and give him much higher scores for honesty, empathy, experience and for sharing their values. But they see the New York businessman as better able to handle some key issues. Trump is way ahead on handling the economy and terrorism.”

A new American Research Group poll shows Trump leading with 29%, followed by Cruz at 25%, Rubio at 10%, Carson at 8% and Christie at 65.

Trump Maintains Lead in New Hampshire

January 11, 2016 at 12:20 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 23 Comments

A new American Research Group poll in New Hampshire finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 25%, followed by John Kasich at 14%, Marco Rubio at 14%, Chris Christie at 10%, Ted Cruz at 9% and Jeb Bush at 8%.

A new Monmouth poll finds Trump at 32%, followed by Cruz at 14%, Kasich at 14%, Rubio at 12%, Christie at 8% and Bush at 4%.

Sanders Has No Finance Team

January 11, 2016 at 12:05 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 36 Comments

Sen. Bernie Sanders has raised $73 million for his presidential campaign without a single finance staffer, the Daily Beast reports.

“Every competitive presidential campaign in recent election cycles has had team of people exclusively dedicated to finances: figuring out how much money the campaign needs, putting together a plan to get that money, and then making it all come together. It’s considered a fundamental part of a modern presidential campaign, right up there with having a team to deal with the press. But Sanders may be changing that.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

January 11, 2016 at 11:43 am EST By Taegan Goddard 16 Comments

“The truant officer is out looking for him.”

— Gov. Chris Christie, quoted by Politico, on the missed votes in the U.S. Senate by Sen. Marco Rubio.

Democrats See Senate Control Within Reach

January 11, 2016 at 10:24 am EST By Taegan Goddard 97 Comments

“Democrats are starting to feel confident they will win two key Senate races — and are within striking distance in several other states that would give them a majority when the next president takes office,” Politico reports.

“The minority party believes it can pick off Illinois and Wisconsin from Senate Republicans, but that still leaves five core battleground states balanced on a knife’s edge as the GOP tries to protect its 54-seat majority.”

A great resource: 2016 Senate Election Interactive Map

The Candidate Having the Most Fun Usually Wins

January 11, 2016 at 10:03 am EST By Taegan Goddard 16 Comments

GOP strategist Alex Castellanos writes for CNN about a campaign he once ran for Ricardo Martinelli, Panama’s version of Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi and a man similar in temperament to Donald Trump.

“As a lark, I put a question I had never asked before on a survey and we tracked it: ‘Which campaign is having the most fun?’ It was ours… Doubts about his lack of governing experience were overcome by his buoyant strength and self-assurance. We won.”

“Which returns us to a reflection that should scare all of us in Washington’s GOP establishment, as noted in an interview conducted by Chuck Todd of Meet the Press. Donald Trump is having a lot of fun, isn’t he? More than anyone else.”

Bonus Trump Quote of the Day

January 11, 2016 at 9:28 am EST By Taegan Goddard 44 Comments

“We’re going to win so much — win after win after win — that you’re going to be begging me: ‘Please, Mr. President, let us lose once or twice. We can’t stand it any more.’ And I’m going to say: ‘No way. We’re going to keep winning. We’re never going to lose. We’re never, ever going to lose.”

— Donald Trump, quoted by the Washington Post.

Sanders Within Striking Distance

January 11, 2016 at 9:25 am EST By Taegan Goddard 64 Comments

Rick Klein: “They’re the numbers Bernie Sanders has been waiting for – but might they have come two weeks or so too early? New polling showing Sanders in striking distance in Iowa, and slightly ahead in New Hampshire, reveals why Hillary Clinton is on the attack – suddenly even doing phone interviews if it means a chance to take on Sanders on guns. In a new ad and a sharpened stump, Clinton is also falling back on the e-word – electability – in making her case to wavering (or at least uninspired) Democrats.”

“The attack may slightly miss the mark, given the fact that national and state-level polling suggest that a less-defined Sanders is a stronger matchup against Donald Trump than is Clinton. But those numbers could turn around fast if scrutiny falls on Sanders. His supporters may be fired up and ready to go a bit harder and faster given the Clinton attacks. Clinton, though, still has ample time to ramp up her machine, which also may work better fueled by some fear. If Sanders stays in the mix in the early states and beyond, he won’t have the element of surprise on his side.”

For members: Sanders is now a real threat to Clinton

Cruz Bets Heavily on the South

January 11, 2016 at 8:29 am EST By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

“In the more than 200 events he’s held since launching his campaign for the White House 10 months ago, Ted Cruz has tested out an unorthodox strategy, one that could rewrite the rules of Republican presidential politics.”

“Since the Texas senator declared his candidacy in March, 40 percent of his public events have taken place in Iowa, according to a Texas Tribune analysis of his travel schedule as of Saturday. But beyond that first-test state, Cruz has held nearly a quarter of his campaign events in the so-called “SEC primary” states, a mostly southern mix of states that will host their primaries on March 1.”

Trump Quote of the Day

January 11, 2016 at 8:16 am EST By Taegan Goddard 34 Comments

“Football has become soft like our country has become soft.”

— Donald Trump, quoted by the Washington Post, saying referees “just throw to flags to impress their wives, who are watching at home.”

Rubio to Dominate Iowa TV In Final Weeks

January 11, 2016 at 8:09 am EST By Taegan Goddard 7 Comments

“Marco Rubio is poised to dominate Iowa’s television airwaves with about 7,000 ads scheduled to run from Jan. 1 until caucus day — an effort that accounts for more than one-third of all political ads slated to air during that time,” the Des Moines Register reports.

“The purchases on Rubio’s behalf make up more than half of the $9.4 million in total spending for ads that are scheduled to air across the state during the final month of the caucus campaign.”

Quote of the Day

January 11, 2016 at 7:39 am EST By Taegan Goddard 38 Comments

“Despite Sen. Cruz’s repeated statements that the legal/constitutional issues around whether he’s a natural-born citizen are clear and settled, the truth is that they’re murky and unsettled.”

— Harvard Law Professor Laurence Tribe, quoted by The Guardian, on whether the Texas senator is a natural born citizen.

Carson Super PAC Staff Quits to Back Cruz

January 11, 2016 at 7:34 am EST By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

All five paid New Hampshire staffers at the pro-Ben Carson 2016 Committee super PAC quit their posts on Sunday to become volunteers for Sen. Ted Cruz, WMUR reports.

Trump’s Campaign Is Damaging His Brand

January 11, 2016 at 7:20 am EST By Taegan Goddard 14 Comments

New data obtained by Politico finds that “as Donald Trump the candidate has ascended, hitting the top of the polls and staying there thanks to a series of controversial statements and a groundswell of Republican populist support, the opposite has happened to Trump the brand: Among the people Trump’s business depends on—the consumer making over $100,000 a year—the value of the Trump name is collapsing.”

Democrats to Push LePage Impeachment

January 11, 2016 at 7:18 am EST By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

Maine Democrats pushing for impeachment proceedings against Gov. Paul LePage (R) say they will introduce a measure this week calling for an investigation into eight possible charges against the Republican chief executive, the Portland Press Herald reports.

Team Rubio Says He Doesn’t Need to Win Early

January 11, 2016 at 7:17 am EST By Taegan Goddard 16 Comments

Palm Beach Post: “Rubio’s campaign says he’s competing to win in all four of the states that hold caucuses or primaries next month — Iowa (Feb. 1), New Hampshire (Feb. 9), South Carolina (Feb. 20) and Nevada (Feb. 23) — but doesn’t need a first-place finish in any of them to win the nomination.”

Said Rubio spokesman Alex Conant: “We compete to win everywhere. But in a field this big I think we’re going to be competing in March regardless of what happens in February.”

Stuart Rothenberg: “No Republican has been nominated for president since 1976 without winning either the Iowa caucuses or the New Hampshire primary.”

Party Identification Near Record Lows

January 11, 2016 at 7:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard 7 Comments

Gallup: “In 2015, for the fifth consecutive year, at least four in 10 U.S. adults identified as political independents. The 42% identifying as independents in 2015 was down slightly from the record 43% in 2014. This elevated percentage of political independents leaves Democratic (29%) and Republican (26%) identification at or near recent low points, with the modest Democratic advantage roughly where it has been over the past five years.”

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