Gallup: “Registered voters are more likely to view their choice of candidate in this year’s midterm elections as a message of opposition (32%) rather than support (20%) for President Obama. That 12-percentage-point margin is similar to what Gallup measured for Obama in 2010 and George W. Bush in 2006, years in which their parties performed poorly in the midterm elections.”

Stu Rothenberg expects Republicans to flip seven Senate seats but he says there’s still a chance in the final weeks for Democrats to retain control.

“First, Democrats still may be able to localize elections in a few states — the most likely prospects are North Carolina and Alaska, which were carried by Romney, and two swing states won by Obama, Iowa and Colorado. Doing so would inoculate the Democratic nominees (three incumbents and one open seat hopeful) from Obama’s near-toxic political standing.”

“Second, Democrats may be able to register and turn out additional voters, who could change the arithmetic of the elections.”

Politico: “The message from Republican officials has been crystal clear for two years: The 2016 Republican primary cannot be another prolonged pummeling of the eventual nominee. Only one person ultimately benefited from that last time — Barack Obama — and Republicans know they can’t afford to send a hobbled nominee up against Hillary Clinton.”

“Yet interviews with more than a dozen party strategists, elected officials and potential candidates a month out from the unofficial start of the 2016 election lay bare a stark reality: Despite the national party’s best efforts, the likelihood of a bloody primary process remains as strong as ever.”

Wall Street Journal: “A look back shows that eras of evenly divided power–Congress fully controlled by one party, the presidency by the other–have turned out to be among the most productive. And if you are a president yearning for elusive legislative achievements in the final two years of your term, anything that makes Washington more productive would be welcome, even if attaining some of that productivity required trimming your ideological sails.”

“When power is evenly split in Washington, both parties have to temper their policies. They can worry less about fully satisfying their ideological bases… When the two parties have an equal share of power, they also have an equal share of responsibility for what does and doesn’t get done–and have to worry about taking the blame in the even more important 2016 election if things don’t get done. For Mr. Obama, in particular, full GOP control of Congress might well shift Republicans’ focus from stopping him to making things happen.”

“It’s Super Tuesday for Senate debates, with candidates in Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia set to square off,” the New York Times reports.

“These late-in-the-game debates can carry a lot of weight because many voters are just now beginning to pay attention to the midterm elections. A slip-up can be significant.”

A new Quinnipiac poll in Pennsylvania finds Tom Wolf (D) way ahead of Gov. Tom Corbett (R) in the race for governor, 55% to 38%.

A new Glengariff Group poll in Michigan finds Gov. Rick Snyder (R) leading challenger Mark Schauer (D) by eight points, 45% to 37%.

A new Christopher Newport University poll in Virginia finds Sen. Mark Warner (D) running way ahead of challenger Ed Gillespie (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 51% to 39%.

A new Washington Post/University of Maryland poll finds Anthony Brown (D) holds a nine-point lead over Larry Hogan (R) in the race for Maryland governor, 47% to 38%.

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Michigan finds Gov. Rick Snyder (R) barely ahead of challenger Mark Schauer (D), 47% to 46%.

In the U.S. Senate race, Gary Peters (D) leads Terri Lynn Land (R) by seven points, 49% to 42%.

A new Democracy Corps (D) poll finds “a consistent move toward the Democrats across a broad range of indicators that suggest the Democrats are more likely to hold control of the U.S. Senate than not.”

“This election is still on a knife-edge; the overall vote remains unchanged and many states are within a couple of points. But the underlying dynamics and key metrics have all moved away from the Republicans. Some of these changes are dramatic, though the context remains a battleground that Romney won by 8 points. However, Democrats are poised to hold on.”

Some results from key races:

North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) 45%, Thom Tillis (R) 41%

Iowa: Joni Ernst (R) 45%, Bruce Braley (D) 44%

Colorado: Mark Udall (D) 45%, Cory Gardner (R), 45%

Georgia: David Perdue (R) 46%, Michelle Nunn (D) 41%

Kansas U.S. Senate candidate Greg Orman (I) told NBC News that he could change parties even after he has allied himself with Democrats or Republicans if he wins the election in November.

Orman says he would initially caucus with whichever party has majority control but he said could switch again, especially if the Senate is evenly split.

Said Orman: “If four or five months goes by, and it’s clear they’re engaged in the same old partisan politics, we’ll be able to change our allegiances and work with the other side. And I think that’s a really strong and important tool, to hold the Senate accountable for actually getting something done.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut finds Gov. Dan Malloy (D) with an 8 point lead for reelection over challenger Tom Foley (R), 43% to 35%.

A new Loras College poll in Iowa finds Joni Ernst (R) deadlocked with Bruce Braley (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 42% to 42%.

A new Bluegrass Poll in Kentucky finds Alison Lundergran Grimes (D) just ahead of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 44%.

Key finding: “While that advantage is within the poll’s margin of error, it represents a 6-point swing to the Democrat since the last survey in late August.”