Harry Enten reviews the latest polling averages and concludes “the final outcome for the Senate could be anything from a minor Republican gain to a GOP romp. At the moment, the state of play seems manageable from a Democratic perspective, but the party’s position is perilous. A tiny shift could tip the canoe and spill a lot of Democrats overboard.”
Where is the Polling in Alaska?
The Upshot currently has the race for control of the U.S. Senate listed as a toss up — giving Republican a 54% chance of taking over the chamber.
Sam Wang‘s latest forecast also suggests a toss up — but with Democrats having the slimmest of edges.
But Wang also issues an important caveat: “The biggest problem with the polling snapshot right now is a near absence of information about the Alaska race. Senator Begich (D) is locked in a close race with the probable (but not definite) nominee, Dan Sullivan (R). In other close states, there’s at least a little June data. The last published Alaska poll that went into today’s snapshot was completed on May 11th.”
Birth Control Legislation Blocked in Senate
Republican senators blocked legislation that would have required private employers with religious interests to pay for birth control as part of their health insurance benefits, Roll Call reports.
The Senate rejected, by a 56-43 vote, the first procedural motion to advance the bill. Sixty votes were needed to limit debate on the motion to proceed. Republican members Susan Collins (R-ME), Mark Kirk (R-IL) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) voted with nearly all Democrats in favor of cloture.
Lawmaker Says GOP Must Get ‘Down to a Woman’s Level’
Rep. Renee Ellmers (R-NC) said Republicans need to bring policy explanations “down to a woman’s level” in order to connect to female voters, the Washington Examiner reports.
Said Ellmers: “Men do tend to talk about things on a much higher level. Many of my male colleagues, when they go to the House floor, you know, they’ve got some pie chart or graph behind them and they’re talking about trillions of dollars and how, you know, the debt is awful and, you know, we all agree with that.”
She added: “We need our male colleagues to understand that if you can bring it down to a woman’s level and what everything that she is balancing in her life — that’s the way to go.”
Poll Shows Gardner Leading Udall
A new Gravis Marketing poll in Colorado shows Cory Gardner (R) leading Sen. Mark Udall (D) by four points, 47% to 43%.
For comparison, a Marist poll this week found Udall leading by seven points. Quinnipiac will release their poll of the race in the morning.
GOP Operatives Caught Using Spyglasses
“For the third time this year, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Schauer is accusing Republicans of attempting to spy on his campaign,” the Detroit News reports.
“But this time, the suspected political subterfuge involves a high-tech hidden camera and a video memory disk that fell into the hands of Democrats.”
Brown Forgets Where He’s Running
Former Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA), now running for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire, attacked Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) on the crisis at the border telling Boston Herald radio that he’s “not for amnesty and never have been, I have not supported the Dream Act, she has. And that’s a big difference between Senator Shaheen and me and many other people in the Massachusetts delegation.”
The Hill: “It’s not the first time he’s slipped and forgotten he’s no longer representing Massachusetts or running for a seat in that state.”
An Honest Political Ad
Gil Fulbright, fake candidate for the U.S. Senate, offers a refreshingly honest political ad.
“Hi, I’m Gil Fulbright. The people who run my campaign, they’ve made this commercial — and I’m in it. This campaign — it’s not about me, it’s about crafting a version of me that will appeal to you. A version that visits random worksites with paid actors pointing at things. A version of me that doesn’t find old people loathsome or pointless. A version that has a conventionally attractive yet curiously still family.”
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“Not a day goes by when people don’t talk to us about impeachment. I don’t know what rises to that level yet, but I know that there’s a mounting frustration that a lot of people are getting to and I think Congress is going to start looking at it very seriously.”
— Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA), quoted by the Atlanta Journal Constitution.
Jon Stewart Confirms Hillary Clinton is Running
Jon Stewart tried a novel approach to asking Hillary Clinton whether she was running for president by having her take “a career aptitude test,” the Los Angeles Times reports.
Some of his questions: “Do you like commuting to work or do you like a home office? Do you have a favorite shape for that home office? Would you like that office… to have corners? Or would you like it not to have corners.”
Watch the interview and see what you think.
Begich Touts Closeness With Murkowski
A new campaign ad from Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) spotlights his relationship with Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), “saying the two vote together as much as 80 percent of the time,” Alaska Dispatch reports.
“But Murkowski is pushing back, saying that in spite of their cooperation on key Alaska issues, she and Begich are not as close as the ad would lead listeners to believe.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“I feel very certain that we will win the 17 seats we need. We have to net that though, which means we have to hold everything else. And right now, members are telling me now that the Koch Brothers are just pouring money into their districts. That has an impact, there’s just no question.”
— Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), quoted by the Washington Post.
On Wonk Wire
Some great clicks over at Wonk Wire:
GOP Candidate Mistakes Campers for Migrant Children
Arizona congressional candidate Adam Kwasman (R) complained about the expected arrival of dozens of migrant children at a shelter on Twitter: “Bus coming in. This is not compassion. This is the abrogation of the rule of law.”
He included a photo of the back of a yellow school bus and later told the Arizona Republic, “I was actually able to see some of the children in the buses. The fear on their faces… This is not compassion.”
“But there was a problem with Kwasman’s story: There was no fear on their faces. Those weren’t the migrant children in the school bus. Those were children from the Marana school district. They were heading to the YMCA’s Triangle Y Camp, not far from the Rite of Passage shelter for the migrants, at the base of Mt. Lemmon.”
House GOP to Stage Mock Trial
National Journal: “In an unlikely setting for political theater–the cramped meeting room of the House Rules Committee–lawyers for and against Speaker John Boehner’s proposed lawsuit against President Obama will stage a kind of mock trial Wednesday to expound upon the plan’s possibilities and pitfalls.”
“Although the testimony will be equally divided between the pros and the cons, the outcome is inevitable. With a 9-4 majority on the Rules Committee, Republicans are certain to follow their leader’s suggestion and write a resolution for the full House to consider calling for litigation against the president.”
Rahm Catches a Big Break
Toni Preckwinkle (D) declared that she won’t run for Chicago mayor, “leaving union and community groups angry over Chicago’s violent crime, school closings and teetering finances searching for a credible candidate to take on Mayor Rahm Emanuel next year,” the Chicago Tribune reports.
“The decision is a boost to Emanuel’s bid for a second term and ensures he won’t have to square off against a popular, countywide elected official capable of uniting disparate voters from the South and West Sides with lakefront liberals.”
Lawmaker Says Undocumented Children Are Gang Members
Rep. Rich Nugent (R-FL) “called undocumented immigrant children at the border not children at all but gang affiliated persons from a culture of thievery, murder, and violence,” BuzzFeed reports.
Said Nugent: “A lot of these children… quote-unquote… ya know, the first caller mentioned it, ya know, they’re gang members. They’re gang affiliated.”
He added: “Listen if you’re 14, 15, 16, 17 years old and you’re coming from a country that’s gang infested, particularly with MS-13-types. That is the most aggressive of all the street gangs. When you have those types coming across the border, they’re not children at that point. These kids have been brought up in a culture of thievery. A culture of murder, of rape. And now we are going to infuse them into the American culture. It’s just ludicrous.”
Quote of the Day
“Jimmy Carter might have been a better president than Barack Obama, and I didn’t think I would ever say that.”
— Former Vice President Dick Cheney, in an interview on CNN.
