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Polling Averages Prove Accurate

June 6, 2014 at 6:21 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “For all the focus on Republican infighting this primary season, one quiet winner has emerged from these intraparty contests: public-opinion polls.”

“Individual survey results have been all over the map in primary after primary, but the averages compiled by Real Clear Politics have predicted the Republican winner in every race so far, save Mississippi, where the aggregate results on Primary Day showed a tie. The contest is now headed to a June 24 runoff because neither candidate eclipsed 50%.”

Conversation with Nate Cohn

June 5, 2014 at 5:09 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Cohn, who covers polling for The Upshot/New York Times, joins us for a great discussion of their new forecasting model, LEO, and which party might win control of the U.S. Senate.

Listen here:

Subscribe via iTunes or RSS to get episodes automatically downloaded.

Thanks to Stamps.com and Brain HQ for sponsoring the podcast. Use those links for special offers for our listeners.

Study Finds Discrimination Behind Voter ID Laws

June 5, 2014 at 3:35 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new University of Southern California study finds strong evidence that “discriminatory intent underlies legislative support for voter identification laws.” the Washington Post reports.

“The findings raise questions about the constitutionality of voter ID laws, which the Supreme Court affirmed in 2007 on the basis that Indiana’s strict law represented a “generally applicable, nondiscriminatory voting regulation.” For quick background, these laws require registered voters to show some sort of government-issued ID before they vote — supporters say they’re necessary to prevent voter fraud, while opponents counter that they disproportionately affect elderly, minority and low-income groups.”


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Bonus Quote of the Day

June 5, 2014 at 1:41 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Definitely. It’s better to kidnap one person like Bergdahl than kidnapping hundreds of useless people. It has encouraged our people. Now everybody will work hard to capture such an important bird.”

— A senior Taliban commander, quoted by Time, when asked whether the Taliban would be inspired to kidnap others after the prisoner swap with the United States.

An Inside Look at the Secret Service

June 5, 2014 at 1:20 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Out next week: Within Arm’s Length: A Secret Service Agent’s Definitive Inside Account of Protecting the President by Dan Emmett.

The Washington Post reports the book claims the Secret Service violated the terms of the Korean War cease-fire during a visit to South Korea by President Clinton in 1993.

What Were McDaniel Staffers Doing Inside Courthouse?

June 5, 2014 at 12:57 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A sheriff’s department spokesman refutes claims by the Chris McDaniel camp that three staffers were let into the courthouse by ‘uniformed personnel’ sometime after it closed late election night,” the Jackson Clarion Ledger reports.

“The incident is now under investigation by the sheriff’s department, and they have requested courthouse security footage… Hinds County Circuit Clerk Barbara Dunn says it would be virtually impossible to tamper with ballots after they make it to her office. All ballots including absentee were locked inside a vault in her office, which was locked when everyone left Tuesday night between 11 p.m. and 11:30 p.m.”

Flashback of the Day

June 5, 2014 at 12:18 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This is fascinating: Walt Mossberg talks to C-SPAN in 1984 about the old Wall Street Journal newspaper column that was the model for Political Wire when I started the site 15 years ago.

[Read more…]

On Wonk Wire

June 5, 2014 at 12:07 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Some great clicks over at Wonk Wire:

  • New EPA Rule: Which States Will be Hit Hardest?
  • 75% in U.S. Still See the Bible as Word of God
  • A One-Sided ‘War on Coal’
  • Economic Growth Isn’t Leading to Less Poverty
  • Supreme Court Rejects Request to Halt Gay Marriages in Oregon

A Campaign About Nothing

June 5, 2014 at 10:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Michigan Democrats hit U.S. Senate candidate Terri Lynn Land with a Seinfeld-themed web video parody.

[Read more…]

Democrats Unveil Program to Boost Voter Registration

June 5, 2014 at 10:20 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

MSNBC: “Democrats are set to roll out a new program that uses sophisticated data analysis to identify the neighborhoods that are ripest for registering new voters — potentially making the party’s registration drives far more effective. The effort underlines Democrats’ growing focus on bringing new voters into the process, with the party’s chances for electoral success increasingly hinging on boosting turnout.”

More Americans Find Obama Less Competent Than Bush

June 5, 2014 at 9:29 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Fox News poll finds that 48% of Americans say the Obama administration is less competent than George W. Bush’s, compared to 42% who say it is more competent. Seven percent judge Obama’s and Bush’s the same.

Similarly, 68% of Americans say the Obama administration is less competent that the Clinton administration.

Brown Suddenly Cuts Ties to Florida Company

June 5, 2014 at 9:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Scott Brown (R) “abruptly resigned Wednesday from an obscure Florida company and gave up stock initially valued at $1.3 million after facing a barrage of questions about his role as a ‘senior adviser,’ a controversy that had dogged his US Senate campaign in New Hampshire,” the Boston Globe reports.

Putin Takes Issue with Clinton

June 5, 2014 at 9:18 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Russian President Vladimir Putin “took a swing at former secretary of state Hillary Clinton, responding particularly to remarks she made earlier this year in which she compared Russia’s tactics to Adolf Hitler’s in the 1930s,” ABC News reports.

Said Putin: “It’s better not to argue with women. But Ms. Clinton has never been too graceful in her statements.”

McCain Called Out on Prisoner Swap Shift

June 5, 2014 at 8:58 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Huffington Post notes that in “true Tim Russert style,” Jake Tapper played footage of Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) decrying the deal to exchange five Taliban prisoners in Guantanamo Bay for Army Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl, who was being held in Afghanistan.

He then cut to new video of McCain saying that an exchange was something he would “seriously consider” and be open to if it meant that Bergdahl would be returned to America.

The Myth of Inevitability

June 5, 2014 at 8:54 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Joe Klein: “We are sure to be smothered by Hillary (or hillary!, as an old campaign button had it) well past the summer solstice… I approach the coming spectacle with a combination of obsession, exhaustion, dread and exhilaration. This is going to be horrible fun – and crucial, as the Clintons always are… Some presidential campaigns are about inevitability. Others are about energy. The best have both, but it’s rare: inevitability tends to crush energy.”

“I’ve seen her candor more than once, but always off the record. That will have to change. If Hillary Clinton hopes to succeed, she’s going to have to drop the veil – spontaneously, quite possibly in a crucial moment, like a debate – and trust the public to accept who she really is. Absent that, there is no such thing as inevitability.”

Quote of the Day

June 5, 2014 at 8:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“You can’t be the candidate that shakes down more money on Wall Street than anybody since I don’t know, Woodrow Wilson, and be the populist. You can’t be the one to say we’re going to focus on rebuilding America if you voted to go to the Iraq war.”

— Former Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D), quoted by Time, on a possible presidential bid by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

McDaniel Seen as Having Edge in Runoff

June 5, 2014 at 8:17 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jackson Clarion-Ledger: “Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) needs a large, broad turnout in a June 24 runoff — a steep hill, since runoffs are typically parochial with low turnout. Challenger Chris McDaniel needs his blue collar and tea party base of voters in his strongholds to turn out strong again. They still appear fired up and ready. Both Republican U.S. Senate campaigns need money, lots of it fast, or outside groups willing to spend on their behalf.”

“As the two campaigns analyzed Tuesday’s voting — in which they fought to nearly a draw — and plotted strategy moving forward, most prognoses had the runoff tilted in McDaniel’s favor.”

However, Harry Enten
says “we should be cautious in speculating how the Mississippi runoff
will go. There hasn’t been a GOP primary for Senate or governor in the
past 26 years in which an incumbent didn’t get the most votes but still
made a runoff. We’re in mostly uncharted territory.”

Democrats Unlikely to Prevail in Mississippi

June 5, 2014 at 7:34 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Cohn says Democrats shouldn’t get their hopes up about winning a U.S. Senate seat in Mississippi — even if tea partier Chris McDaniel (R) prevails in a runoff against Sen. Thad Cochran (R).

“There is no state more polarized than Mississippi. Eighty percent of voters are black or white evangelical Christian. And the problem for Democrats is that they’re on the wrong side of the ledger. In 2012, 50 percent of voters were white evangelical Christians, and they voted 95 percent for Mitt Romney. They form a nearly unbreakable bloc, and they’re augmented by the state’s deeply conservative non-evangelical white voters. Over all, Mr. Obama barely exceeded 10 percent of white voters, if at all… There just might not be a road to victory for Democrats in Mississippi.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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