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GOP Leaders Work to Prevent Shutdown

December 1, 2014 at 7:05 am EST By Taegan Goddard 7 Comments

New York Times: “As Congress returns from recess on Monday facing a Dec. 11 deadline for funding the government, Mr. Boehner and his fellow Republican leaders are working to persuade the rank and file — furious over President Obama’s executive action on immigration — that engaging in a spending confrontation is the wrong way to counter the White House. That would set the wrong tone, they argue, as Republicans prepare to take over Congress and fulfill promises to govern responsibly.”

Wall Street Journal: “But it is unclear what Republicans will do to satisfy conservatives who want to express their anger over President Obama ’s decision to shield millions of illegal immigrants from deportation. Some of these lawmakers, emboldened by the GOP’S midterm-election victories, see funding bills as a way to oppose the president on immigration and other issues, while some also are likely to object to spending levels they deem too high.”

Politico: “December was supposed to be a sleepy month for Congress — a chance to finish up a productive lame-duck session and leave the decks clear for the new Republican majority that takes control in January. Instead, the next two weeks have morphed into a minefield.”

[speech_bubble type=”std” subtype=”a” icon=”pwdome.jpg” name=””]This is a big test of the GOP leadership’s ability to control their members. [/speech_bubble]

Cook Says Hillary Clinton Likely to Run

December 1, 2014 at 7:02 am EST By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

Charlie Cook emails Political Wire to say he never predicted that Hillary Clinton is unlikely to run for president as one report over the weekend claimed.

Said Cook: “I have never said that the odds of her running were less than 60%. Clearly this person misheard me.”

MSNBC notes Cook has written at least two previous columns pegging Clinton’s chances of running at 70%.

Open GOP Field Draws Long Shot Bids

December 1, 2014 at 7:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard 7 Comments

Wall Street Journal: “More than 20 Republicans have inserted themselves into the discussion of who might seek the 2016 nomination, a contrast with Democrats’ nearly singular focus on Hillary Clinton . The potential stampede poses challenges even to the best-known possible contenders, as prospective candidates compete for staff, donors and attention.”

“It is the result of a GOP nominating contest that, for the first time in decades, doesn’t begin with an incumbent president or an obvious heir to the nomination—a vice president or candidate the bulk of the party’s donors and activists have rallied behind. The wide-open race is tempting ambitious politicians to launch even long-shot bids, giving them, at least, a perch to raise their profile nationally, promote a pet issue or angle for a job in a new administration.”

[speech_bubble type=”std” subtype=”a” icon=”pwdome.jpg” name=””]Names floated include former Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich and former New York Gov. George Pataki. [/speech_bubble]

Obama Risks Alienating Chief Justice

December 1, 2014 at 7:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

President Obama “always knew his plan to shield millions of immigrants from deportation would enrage Republicans on Capitol Hill who oppose most of what he does,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“But by claiming the power to forge ahead based on his executive authority, the president may well lose the one conservative he still really needs: Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr.”

“Two years ago, the chief justice surprised many by joining liberals on the court to uphold the constitutionality of Obama’s Affordable Care Act. And he probably holds the deciding vote in a second legal challenge to the healthcare law — one that seeks to eliminate government insurance subsidies to low- and middle-income enrollees in two-thirds of the nation… The question now is whether the president’s immigration action will influence the thinking of the justices, and particularly of Roberts, as they consider in the upcoming healthcare case whether the president exceeded his authority.”

The Rise of Obama Republicans

December 1, 2014 at 6:27 am EST By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments

“When the new Congress takes the oath in January, Republicans could occupy as many as 247 seats, giving them their most dominant House majority in over 80 years. But it will also usher in an expanded group of Republicans from Democratic-friendly districts, a shift, GOP operatives say, that will reorder the politics of the chamber,” Politico reports.

“The new Republican Conference will include 26 members from districts that Obama won in 2012, and 47 lawmakers from districts that Mitt Romney won by less than 10 percentage points. In the previous Congress, just 17 Republican incumbents were in districts that Obama won and 44 in seats Romney won by less than 10 points.”

Quote of the Day

November 30, 2014 at 9:19 am EST By Taegan Goddard 19 Comments

“He’s just sad.”

— President Obama, quoted by the New York Post, picking up a copy of Chuck Todd’s new book, The Stranger: Barack Obama in the White House, in a Washington, DC bookstore.

GOP Outplayed Democrats in State Races

November 30, 2014 at 9:12 am EST By Taegan Goddard 30 Comments

“As Republicans took control of an unprecedented 69 of 99 statehouse chambers in the midterm elections, they did not rely solely on a bench of older white men. Key races hinged on the strategic recruitment of women and minorities, many of them first-time candidates who are now learning the ropes and joining the pool of prospects for higher office,” the New York Times reports.

“The wins, by candidates carefully chosen to challenge the traditional notion of the Democratic base, bode well for Republicans in future elections. They had a net gain of 59 women in state legislatures; Democrats lost 63 women. Republicans added 10 Latinos; Democrats lost five. Republicans reported 17 newly elected blacks; a comparable figure for Democrats was not available. In 2008, only about 31 percent of women in state legislatures were Republicans; in 2015, that figure will rise by eight percentage points.”

Hagel’s Side of the Story

November 30, 2014 at 9:06 am EST By Taegan Goddard 4 Comments

“Two months before he was pushed out as defense secretary, Chuck Hagel penned a private letter to the White House, arguing for new measures to rein in Russian President Vladimir Putin and greater efforts to reassure anxious European allies,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Shortly after the September letter, he wrote another memo calling for the administration to clarify its approach to the conflict in Syria. The two messages capped a year of frustrations for Mr. Hagel, who repeatedly found fault with what he saw as indecisiveness by the White House National Security Council.”

Said one Hagel confidante: “One of the things that Hagel values most is clarity. That’s not something that this White House has always done well.”

GOP Hopefuls Miss on Tech Policy

November 30, 2014 at 8:07 am EST By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments

“Republican presidential prospects like Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio have tapped the tech industry’s fat wallets and mined its big-data expertise — but these 2016 hopefuls couldn’t be further from Silicon Valley when it comes to policy,” Politico reports.

“A series of major divides — from the fate of net neutrality to the future of surveillance reform — still splits this trio of prominent pols from Internet giants in the country’s tech heartland, which helped catapult President Obama to well-funded victories in 2008 and 2012.”

Republicans Seek to Change Budget Math

November 29, 2014 at 9:59 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 44 Comments

“The incoming Republican majority in Congress is preparing to give number-crunching a controversial twist, and the new math could make it easier for the GOP to cut taxes,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“Budget scoring now is fairly straightforward: Just figure out how much more money a tax increase would produce for the Treasury or how much a tax cut would cost in lost revenue. Republicans, however, want two key congressional offices to use complex models to try to predict the broader effect of hikes and cuts on the economy. The process is called dynamic scoring.”

No Clinton or Bush in 2016?

November 29, 2014 at 9:53 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 63 Comments

Steve Rose: “Charlie Cook, one of the most respected political experts in the country, believes Hillary Clinton has only a 25-30 percent chance of running for president, and in any case he thinks she is either ‘rusty’ or ‘she has lost her fastball.’ He bases that on her disastrous book tour, in which she said some very inappropriate things and also did not sell many books.”

“The author of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report newsletter for almost 30 years also disappointed a local audience when he did not give Jeb Bush much of a chance of gaining the Republican nomination… He expects the next Republican nominee to be either a tea party Senator or a governor from the Midwest. He wouldn’t predict beyond that.”

[speech_bubble type=”std” subtype=”a” icon=”pwdome.jpg” name=””]If you look at Hillary Clinton’s favorable ratings, it’s not unreasonable to think she might be hesitant. [/speech_bubble]

GOP Lawsuit Says Obamacare Never Properly Funded

November 29, 2014 at 8:54 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

“In mounting the latest court challenge to the Affordable Care Act, House Republicans are focusing on a little-noticed provision of the law that offers financial assistance to low- and moderate-income people,” the New York Times reports.

“Under this part of the law, insurance companies must reduce co-payments, deductibles and other out-of-pocket costs for some people in health plans purchased through the new public insurance exchanges… House Republicans say the Obama administration needed, but never received, an appropriation to make these payments to insurance companies.”

Christie Vetoes Pig Crate Ban

November 29, 2014 at 11:31 am EST By Taegan Goddard 73 Comments

“Decrying what he called ‘partisan politicians’ seeking ‘a political cudgel’ with which to beat him, Gov. Chris Christie vetoed legislation banning the use of pig gestation crates in New Jersey,” the Newark Star Ledger reports.

“The bill, which Christie called ‘a solution in search of a problem,’ gained national notoriety not so much for the effect it would have on New Jersey’s actual swine – there are only 9,000 in the state, according to USDA statistics – but on Christie’s political fortunes: Iowa is not only home to the first-in-the-nation political caucuses for the 2016 presidential election, but to 20 million pigs. Nearly one-third of the nation’s hogs are raised in Iowa, where hog farming alone represents $7.5 billion in total economic activity for the state, according to the Iowa Pork Producers Association.”

Early Voting Shows Bad News for Mary Landrieu

November 29, 2014 at 10:42 am EST By Taegan Goddard 13 Comments

Bloomberg: “Landrieu is struggling through the final days of the runoff election, set for Dec. 6. Early balloting trends suggest a spike in interest among white voters and Republicans, while blacks—who nearly universally support the incumbent—are proportionally making up a smaller part of the vote. The first four days of voting in Louisiana show that whites made up about 72 percent of the early electorate. That’s above the 65 percent of whites who voted early before the Nov. 4 election.”

Study Shows Gerrymandering Distorts Election Results

November 29, 2014 at 10:33 am EST By Taegan Goddard 47 Comments

In a new study, Duke University researchers Jonathan Mattingly and Christy Vaughn created a random series of North Carolina congressional district maps using the same vote totals from 2012, but with different borders, North Carolina Public Radio reports.

After re-running the election 100 times with a randomly drawn maps, the simulated election results found Democrats winning an average of 7.6 House seats out of 13. In fact, 95% of the random redistricting simulations found Democrats winning between 6 and 9 House seats. These finds are in stark contrast with the 4 Democrats actually elected in the 2012 elections with the same vote counts.

[speech_bubble type=”std” subtype=”a” icon=”pwdome.jpg” name=””]A fascinating study that shows how gerrymandering subverts the “will of the people.” [/speech_bubble]

Warner Appointed to Senate Democratic Leadership

November 29, 2014 at 10:25 am EST By Taegan Goddard 18 Comments

Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) is joining the Senate Democratic leadership team, even though he voted against keeping Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) as Democratic leader, Roll Call reports.

Warner is seen as a counter-balance to liberal Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), who joined the leadership team after the midterm elections.

[speech_bubble type=”std” subtype=”a” icon=”pwdome.jpg” name=””]That this was announced on the Friday after Thanksgiving suggests no one was too interested in drawing much attention to the move. [/speech_bubble]

Straight-Ticket Voting Rises

November 29, 2014 at 10:20 am EST By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

Bloomberg: “The 2014 election accelerated a trend of straight-ticket voting, the phenomenon of people voting for the same party for Congress as they did for president. With the ideological distance between Democrats and Republicans growing bigger than ever, the result is a Congress sharply divided along party lines, with a shrinking bloc of centrists more open to compromise.”

Rick Perry Gears Up for 2016

November 29, 2014 at 9:50 am EST By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) “is inviting hundreds of prominent Republican donors and policy experts to a series of gatherings next month that are intended to rebuild his damaged national brand and lay the foundation for a potential 2016 presidential campaign,” Politico reports.

“The small-group sessions kick off Tuesday and Wednesday in Austin with a pair of lunches and dinners held in the governor’s mansion wedged between policy briefings at the nearby office of Perry senior adviser Jeff Miller. In all, Perry’s team expects he will meet in person with more than 500 major donors and bundlers from around the country in December as well as a slew of operatives, Republican National Committee members and policy experts.”