Exclusive to Political Wire, Nate Silver defends his critique of Sam Wang’s election forecast. It’s definitely worth reading.
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“I am not on the ballot this fall. Michelle’s pretty happy about that. But make no mistake: these policies are on the ballot. Every single one of them.”
— President Obama, quoted by the Washington Post.
Nunn Says Reid Wanted His Daughter Out of Race
Former Sen. Sam Nunn (D-GA) said his daughter, U.S. Senate candidate Michelle Nunn (D), “has little obligation to support Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) should Democrats maintain the chamber in November – given that Reid, in the spring of 2013, asked her not to run for Sam Nunn’s old seat,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
Said Nunn: “They said they had their eye on another candidate.”
Childers Makes Play for McDaniel Voters
Mississippi Senate candidate Travis Childers (D) “signed an anti-amnesty pledge a conservative organization is pushing, a move that could endear him to disgruntled supporters of former tea party candidate Chris McDaniel (R), the runner-up to Sen. Thad Cochran (R) in the GOP primary,” the Washington Post reports.
GOP Likely to Pick Up House Seats
Roll Call‘s new list of most the 10 most vulnerable House members shows Republicans “are poised to add at least a handful of seats to their majority in the midterms.”
Senate Race in South Dakota Tightens
A new Public Policy Polling survey in South Dakota finds Mike Rounds (R) leading the U.S. Senate race with 35%, followed by Rick Weiland (D) at 28% and Larry Pressler (I) at 24%.
On Wonk Wire
Bonus Quote of the Day
“I would definitely vote for him, I think it’s safe to say, otherwise I may not be invited back home for Thanksgiving.”
— George P. Bush (R), quoted by the Wall Street Journal, on whether he would support a White House bid for his father Jeb. He had previously said he was “staying out of the race.”
Rise of the Independents?
A Smart Politics analysis finds that if Greg Orman is elected in 2014 he would join Vermont’s Bernie Sanders and Maine’s Angus King as the first trio of independents ever to serve in the U.S. Senate at the same time.
Gender Gap Widens as Democrats Press Their Advantage
“The gender gap — the difference between Republicans’ usual margin of victory among men and Democrats’ usual margin of victory among women — is nothing new. It has been evident for years in almost every election up and down the ballot. But a National Journal analysis of public polls, and interviews with strategists from both parties, suggests that the gap has ballooned to historic proportions across 2014’s battleground states. Democrats are running campaigns designed to press an advantage among women that is helping the party compete in a number of races despite an unfriendly political climate and steep GOP advantages among men. Meanwhile, Republicans are searching for issues to combat the trend with female voters.”
Broken Government Narrative Could Impact Midterms
First Read: “In a different year, the series of security breaches – and misinformation about them – that led to Secret Service director Julia Pierson’s resignation Wednesday would get plenty of news coverage, but it probably wouldn’t move the needle all that much politically. But this year, it’s just the latest and most dramatic example of the government failing at its most basic responsibilities. Think about it: A year ago, HealthCare.gov was crashing spectacularly and the federal government was shut down. Since then, the Veterans Affairs Department, the NSA and the IRS all have been caught up in abuse and mismanagement scandals. Now, the tough and supposedly elite forces that the president himself entrusts with his own life failed (in epic fashion, at least three times!) to carry out the basic mission. And the White House was largely in the dark about it.”
“It sure looks to the public like every part of government — even the ones supposedly free from the partisanship that usually gets the blame for dysfunction — is falling down on the job. And this comes at a time that the CDC is trying to reassure Americans about Ebola. With this accumulation of stories backing the narrative of utterly incompetent government, it makes sense that voters want a change — any change — to fix it.”
Why Boehner Wants Bush to Run
“For the past year, Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) has been wooing his longtime friend Jeb Bush to jump into the 2016 presidential race, even as he has shunned potential Tea Party rivals like Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky,” The Hill reports.
“The Speaker’s preference for yet another Bush White House run is partly political, partly personal. He sees Bush as undeniably the strongest, most viable candidate who could pull the party together after a bruising primary and take on a formidable Hillary Clinton, sources said. And the two men are aligned politically, hailing from the same centrist strand of the GOP.”
Quote of the Day
“I think he wants to be president.”
— George W. Bush, quoted by Politico, on his brother Jeb’s intentions in 2016.
Secret Service Agent Leaked Obama’s Campaign Schedule
“As scandal continues to envelop the Secret Service, InsideSources has learned of a security failure leading up to the 2012 election. Multiple sources inside the Romney presidential campaign confirm that a Secret Service agent provided details of President Obama’s schedule several days prior to the President’s campaign stops becoming public.”
Panetta Says Obama is to Blame for Iraq Problems
Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta blames the White House for much of the current chaos in Iraq in his new memoir, Worthy Fights: A Memoir of Leadership in War and Peace.
Panetta writes that “our side viewed the White House as so eager to rid itself of Iraq that it was willing to withdraw rather than lock in arrangements that would preserve our influence and interests.”
Odds Favor Republicans in Senate Battle
Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik: “The race for the Senate is perceptively moving in the Republicans’ direction, but not so dramatically that we’re ready to call the race definitively for them.”
“While we’ve long said the 2014 map and midterm dynamics make a GOP takeover of the Senate a probable outcome, there are just too many close races left and more than a month to go, when big gaffes, unexpected legal actions, and national events can potentially flip a Senate seat or two.”
“But right now, Democrats are behind the eight-ball (as well as the Crystal Ball). So many undecided contests are winnable for the GOP that the party would have to have a string of bad luck — combined with a truly exceptional Democratic get-out-the-vote program — to snatch defeat from the wide-open jaws of victory. Or Republicans would have to truly shoot themselves in the foot in at least one race, which has become a clear possibility over the last few weeks in Kansas.”
Sam Wang Rebuts Nate Silver
For those interested in what has become an epic battle of election forecasters, Sam Wang responds to Nate Silver’s extensive criticism of his midterm election forecasting model.
Sheheen Calls for Removal of Confederate Flag
South Carolina gubernatorial candidate Vincent Sheheen (D) said it is time for the Confederate flag to be removed from the State House grounds and replaced with the U.S. flag, the Columbia State reports.
Said Sheheen: “We are a state that is too often divided, too often separated by race, by region, by party. We know that state leaders in South Carolina keep us entrenched in these divisions so they can stay entrenched in South Carolina.”

