Bruce Braley (D) and Joni Ernst (R) “squared off in a lively U.S. Senate debate Sunday evening, marked by heated exchanges on abortion, contraceptives, climate change and environmental regulations — and by biting attacks and comebacks, especially in the final few minutes,” the Des Moines Register reports.

“Braley went on the attack against a rival who is ahead by 6 points in the new Iowa Poll on the race, but front-runner Ernst responded in kind in their first face-to-face match-up.”

Braley “needed to land some blows against his Republican competitor” but “he didn’t deliver,” Bloomberg reports.

Kansas U.S. Senate candidate Greg Orman (I) refuses to say whether he would he caucus with Democrats or Republicans if he defeats Sen. Pat Roberts (R), the Washington Post reports.

Said Orman: “It’s not in the best interests for us to say that.”

New York Times: “Congressional Republicans successfully ended their primary season with minimal damage, but in at least a dozen safe or largely safe Republican House districts where more mild-mannered Republicans are exiting, their likely replacements will pull the party to the right, a move likely to increase division in an already polarized Congress.”

Ryan Lizza: “In some respects, Paul is to Republicans in 2014 what Barack Obama was to Democrats in 2006: the Party’s most prized fund-raiser and its most discussed senator, willing to express opinions unpopular within his party, and capable of energizing younger voters. The Republican National Committee, which in 2008 refused to allow his father, Ron Paul, to speak at its Convention, recently solicited donations by offering supporters a chance to have lunch with Rand Paul. The only potential obstacle to a Paul Presidential candidacy in 2016 is his wife, Kelley.”

Said adviser Douglas Stafford: “Unless Kelley says no, he’s running.”

The Hill: “Five weeks before the midterm elections, party leaders are peering into their campaign bank accounts, doing their math and trying to figure out where to put their money — and where to abandon hope.”

“While it is unclear which party will be running the upper chamber in 2015, the states that will decide the race are now apparent. The decisions by D.C. power brokers are sure to be a disappointment for some candidates who will be left to the wayside.”

A new Portland Press Herald poll in Maine finds Mike Michaud (D) edging Gov. Paul LePage (R) in the race for governor, 41% to 39%, with Eliot Cutler (I) at 14%.

A new CNN/ORC International poll in Louisiana finds Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) with a small lead over Bill Cassidy (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 43% to 40%.

“But this is Louisiana, and the election system can be complicated. There are nine candidates — Republicans, Democrats, and a Libertarian — on the ballot this November, and if no candidate crosses the 50% threshold, the race moves into a December runoff between the top two contenders.”

A new CNN/ORC International survey in North Carolina finds Sen. Kay Hagan (D) just ahead of challenger Thom Tillis (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 43%, with Libertarian Sean Haugh at 7%.

A new Des Moines Register poll in Iowa finds Joni Ernst (R) leads Bruce Braley (D) in the U.S. Senate race by six points, 44% to 38%.

“Just seven months ago, political analysts considered Braley almost a shoo-in for a seat held for 30 years by liberal Democrat Tom Harkin. Still, the 6-point deficit isn’t insurmountable with 37 days left until the Nov. 4 election, political analysts say. Twelve percent of likely voters remain undecided.”

“If the polls of early September were a reminder that the Democratic path to 50 seats remains open, then the last two weeks were a reminder of how quickly that path could close,” the New York Times reports.

“Recent polls in Iowa, Colorado and Alaska have offered better news for Republicans. As a result, the Republicans are again slight favorites to retake the Senate, according to Leo, The Upshot’s Senate model. They have a 61 percent chance of retaking the chamber, up from 50 percent in the middle of last week.”

Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans a 60% chance and Sam Wang gives Republicans a 61% chance.

“In an election year shaped by voter anger toward the political establishment, the outcome of an unusually large number of close Senate and governor’s races could be determined by the outsize role of third-party candidates,” the New York Times reports.

“The potential spoilers include a quixotic former three-term senator, a pizza delivery man and an Alaskan whose name, Fish, summons a favored native food. They represent independents, Libertarians and other parties that have suddenly become relevant — and could affect the balance of power in Congress and decide who runs the governor’s offices in several states.”

“I think it is a compliment but I also think Republicans need to realize that if we’re going to win national elections again the same old same old that has been losing will not win again.”

— Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), in an interview with David Brody, on the White House saying he was the most interesting Republican.