The Wesleyan Media Project finds that Democrats have run more ads than Republicans in Kentucky, North Carolina, Michigan, Iowa, Louisiana, Colorado, Arkansas, Georgia and Virginia over the last two weeks.
Republicans have only been on the air more than Democrats in Alaska.
“On any given day, 16 of my members decide they’re going to go this way, and all the sudden I have nothing. You might notice I have a few knuckleheads in my conference.”
— Speaker John Boehner (R-OH), quoted by The Hill.
Oregon Senate candidate Monica Wehby’s (R) health care plan appears to have been plagiarized from a survey done for Crossroads GPS, BuzzFeed reports.
Said a campaign spokesman: “The suggestion that a pediatric neurosurgeon needs to copy a health care plan from American Crossroads is absurd. Dr. Wehby is too busy performing brain surgery on sick children to respond, sorry.”
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A new WBUR-FM/MassINC Polling Group poll in Massachusetts finds Martha Coakley (D) leads Charlie Baker (R) in the race for governor by seven points, 41% to 34%.
Potential warning sign for Coakley: The Boston Globe reports Baker “enjoys a huge, nearly 11-to-1 cash advantage over the Democratic nominee.”
Rick Klein: “An announcement out of Ohio that political junkies should take note of: There will be no debate in the Ohio governor’s race this year. That’s not a total surprise, given the fade of Democratic candidate Ed FitzGerald in his race against incumbent Gov. John Kasich. But it underlines the fact that we’re seeing an uncommonly lame political year in a state that always seems to find a way to capture the nation’s Election Night attention. Here’s guessing voters aren’t complaining about getting a break. But Democrats may come to mourn the fact that they didn’t field a serious challenge against Kasich, a possible 2016er, when the time comes to start organizing anew in Ohio. The GOP’s decision to convene in Cleveland in two years looks smarter by the week.”
Tom Holbrook: “In the current period, Democratic candidates have a distinct advantage in close national contests. If the average state-level vote is 50%, the expected Democratic Electoral Vote count is 319. If the average Democratic state vote drops to 48%, Republicans would be expected to pick up Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and Ohio, but Democrats would still have a fighting chance, with an expected Electoral Vote count of 257. And, of course, if Democrats carry 52% on average across the states, they win a comfortable Electoral Vote margin. What is most impressive here is not just the Democratic advantage, but how that advantage has shifted since the 1970s, where the Democratic Electoral Vote was much more proportional to the national popular vote.”
“There is still no evidence of a Democratic ‘lock’ on the Electoral College, but the data presented here do make a clearer case that Republican presidential candidates face an uphill battle, and that their position has deteriorated over time. The political landscape has changed appreciably in the last forty years and that change is politically consequential.”
“There’s one power Congress has that it doesn’t want: The power to declare war,” Bloomberg reports.
“And that’s certainly so seven weeks before congressional elections.”
“The House will vote today on an amendment that gives the administration the authority to train and equip Syrian rebels as part of President Barack Obama’s strategy for destroying Islamic State. But it is silent on whether the president can deploy U.S. forces in the region. Some say Congress is setting a dangerous precedent by abdicating its war powers.”
“Though Republicans continue to hammer away at the Affordable Care Act, the health-insurance law is losing some of its punch in the 2014 campaign,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Polls show that voters don’t see the law as a top concern, and both Democrats and Republicans say the election will turn on a range of issues.”
Politico: “A year ago, it looked like Obamacare was going to have a huge role in this year’s elections. And not in a good way — as a symbol of government incompetence and the Republicans’ main case against President Obama’s record. Now, it’s clear that the health care law not going to be the centerpiece of the November campaigns, in a good way or a bad way. It’s going to be more like the wallpaper.”
A new New England College poll in New Hampshire finds Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) leads Scott Brown (R) by double-digits, 51% to 40%.
A new Quinnipiac poll in Iowa finds Joni Ernst (R) leading Bruce Braley (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 44%.
Said pollster Peter Brown: “The tale of independent voters tells you all you need to know about the Iowa Senate race. These independents are perhaps the most important voter bloc in the electorate and Ernst is ahead 7 percentage points among them, just about her overall lead. The key to any comeback by Braley will be chipping away at her lead among independents.”
The RCP polling average shows the race is a toss up.
A new Quinnipiac poll in Colorado shows Bob Beauprez (R) with a double-digit lead over Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) in the race for governor, 50% to 40%.
“Scottish supporters of staying in the United Kingdom are 4 percentage points ahead of secessionists with just a day to go before Scots vote in an independence referendum, three different opinion polls showed,” Reuters reports.
“The United Kingdom’s fate remains uncertain as the three surveys – from pollsters ICM, Opinium and Survation – showed support for Scottish independence at 48 percent compared to 52 percent backing union.”
A new CBS News/New York Times poll finds Republicans hold a six-point edge in the generic congressional ballot among likely voters, 45% to 39%.
New York Times: “Events overseas have undermined Democrats’ strategy to tie their midterm prospects to an economic theme that includes calls for a higher minimum wage, reducing income inequality, pay equity for women and help with college tuition. Instead, the public and Congress have been overwhelmed this summer by a border crisis, an Ebola outbreak in Africa and, most notably, the terrorist threat from the Islamic State, also known by the acronym ISIS.”
“Democrats, pointing to President Obama’s effectiveness in drawing an economic contrast with the Republican Mitt Romney in 2012 and to the 2006 midterm races in which they took over the House and the Senate, still believe the strategy is sound.”
Vice President Joe Biden “will help kick off a 10-state voter turnout tour for a liberal group called ‘Nuns on the Bus’ today with an outdoor event on the west terrace of the Iowa Capitol,” the Des Moines Register reports.
“For the nation’s first Catholic vice president, this is a chance to attach himself with religious leaders who embrace a message on economic equality that syncs with his soul… Still, this is Iowa. The political implications are ever-present.”
A new Sienna College poll in New York’s 11th congressional district finds Rep. Michael Grimm (R), despite being under federal indictment, is locked in a tight battle against challenger Domenic Recchia (D), 44% to 40%.
A must-read: All the Truth Is Out: The Week Politics Went Tabloid by Matt Bai.
How the Gary Hart affair “marked a crucial turning point in the ethos of political media-and, by extension, politics itself-when candidates’ ‘character’ began to draw more fixation than their political experience.”
“If Democrats cling to their Senate majority this fall, it will be in large part because of a well-funded group connected to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) that has helped build a formidable firewall around vulnerable incumbents,” the Washington Post reports.
“Senate Majority PAC, fueled by billionaires and labor unions, has been the biggest-spending super PAC of the 2014 midterm contests. Together with an allied tax-exempt group, Patriot Majority, the pro-Democratic effort has poured at least $36 million into ads and voter outreach… The groups’ early, aggressive presence in pivotal Senate races spotlights how, four years after being dramatically outgunned in the outside money game, Democrats are now some of its most adept players.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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