A new CNN/ORC International poll finds Republicans lead the generic congressional ballot among registered voters by 46% to 45%.

Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway (D) “will announce as early as Tuesday that he’s officially in the 2015 governor’s race and has selected state Rep. Sannie Overly (D) as his running mate,” CN2 reports.

“Conway has had mixed success running statewide, winning the attorney general’s race in 2007 but losing by 10 points to Rand Paul in the 2010 U.S. Senate race.”

The Monkey Cage launched Election Lab, a new Senate forecasting model that gives Republicans an 82% chance of retaking the Senate in this year’s midterm elections.

“How did we arrive at this conclusion? You can read more about that model here, but in brief: the model looks at Senate elections between 1980-2012 and estimates the effect of several key factors in the country and in individual states or races — the rate of economic growth, the popularity of the president, whether it’s a midterm or presidential year, the most recent presidential election outcome in that state, whether the incumbent is running, and each candidate’s qualification (measured as highest elective office to date).”

In contrast, The Upshot gives Republicans a 54% chance of winning control of the Senate.

“Republican leaders have spent much of the past 18 months trading barbs with conservative groups about the direction of the GOP. On Tuesday, voters get a say,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Primaries in Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio represent the first serious test of which faction holds the balance of power inside the Republican Party. The outcome of these contests will determine whether the pragmatists or the purists hold more sway.”

Polls close in Indiana at 7 p.m. ET; North Carolina and Ohio close at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Roll Call: 6 things to watch in today’s primaries

Roll Call: “Every name on this list has a 50 percent chance — or more — of not returning to Congress next year. To compose this regular feature, Roll Call’s Politics Team examines every aspect of a member’s re-election prospects: district composition, campaign operation, fundraising, quality of opponent and recent performance.”

“Fearful of a third successive Democratic triumph, concerned Senate Republicans are turning against 2016 presidential bids by upstart hopefuls within their own ranks. In forceful comments to The Hill, GOP senators made it plain that they would much prefer their party nominate a current or former governor over Sens. Ted Cruz (R-TX)), Marco Rubio (R-FL) or Rand Paul (R-KY).”

A new CNN poll finds that Americans would prefer that the Senate remain under Democratic control.

Key findings: 45% of respondents said that, should Republicans maintain control of the House come November, the country would be “better off” if Democrats kept their majority in the Senate. Meanwhile, 42% said they hoped Republicans would take the Senate while holding the House.

Utah State Republican Party Chairman James Evans said a group of Mitt Romney supporters around the country is being organized to draft the 2012 GOP nominee as a presidential candidate again, the Deseret News reports.

“Between now and December, the state party leader said, the intent is to gather enough signatures online, especially from conservatives who didn’t support him in 2012, to convince Romney to change his mind.”

The final Public Policy Polling survey of North Carolina’s GOP Senate race finds Thom Tillis (R) leading with 40% — the mark needed to avoid a runoff — with Greg Bannon (R) at 28% and Mark Harris (R) at 15%.

“The momentum has been on the anti-establishment candidates’ side as the race has come to a close. Brannon’s support has increased 8 points in the final week of the campaign and Harris’ has increased by 4 points. Their increases in support come as voters report having seen more from their campaigns- they’ve each had an 8-9 point increase in the percentage that have seen their TV ads, while Tillis was already pretty much maxed out on that front.”

First Read: “We understand why Republicans are again seizing on Benghazi in their effort to establish a select committee in the House to investigate the 2012 terrorist attack there. It fires up the base, puts the Obama administration on the defensive, and allows Republicans to knock likely 2016 candidate Hillary Clinton. (In many ways, the House leadership has no choice since some of their members have spent months claiming it’s one the great scandals of American history; it would be odd if they didn’t attempt to elevate it ‘special’ select committee status.)”

“But our NBC/WSJ poll from last week suggested that this is a riskier move for the GOP than it may realize. According to the poll, 47% of Americans want the United States to be LESS ACTIVE in world affairs, versus just 19% who want it to be more active. This is a country that wants it politicians to focus on the problems at home, not the problems abroad — or that happened two years ago.”