“You know it’s a big event when the 42nd president of the United States is getting third billing,” the Des Moines Register reports.

“Thousands of die-hard Iowa Democrats will gather Sunday on a hot-air balloon field in Indianola for U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin’s 37th and final political steak fry as an elected leader. But while the hearts and minds of attendees will be sentimentally set on Harkin, a liberal champion retiring after 40 years in Congress, the eyes of the national political media will focus on featured guest Hillary Clinton — the once and potentially future presidential candidate who is returning to Iowa for the first time since her defeat in the 2008 caucuses. Her husband — some guy named Bill Clinton — will be there, too.”

First Read: “As we’ve said before, this is Hillary’s first trip to Iowa since her defeat there in Jan. 2008. And as we’ve said before, it’s the clearest sign yet that she’s approaching the point of no return for a 2016 run — if she’s not running, that answer has to come soon.”

Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL) “is invoking first lady Michelle Obama as a possible 2016 opponent in a recent fundraising appeal, citing the ‘press and rumor mills’ as his source — even though she has shown no interest in running for elected office,” the Chicago Sun Times reports.

A new Denver Post poll in Colorado finds Sen. Mark Udall (D) leads challenger Cory Gardner (R) by 4 percentage points in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 42%.

A new Fox News poll finds likely voters prefer a Republican for Congress over a Democrats by a 47% to 40% margin.

“Recent Fox News polls of registered voters have shown a narrow Democratic advantage, although the lead bounced back and forth between the two parties for most of the spring and summer. Almost all Republicans and Democrats plan to vote for their party’s candidate. Independents are twice as likely to say they would back the Republican over the Democrat, yet the largest number say they would vote for a third-party candidate or are still undecided.”

In states with active U.S. Senate races, likely voters would back the Republican candidate in that race by a 48% to 39% margin. And when looking at the results in just the 14 Fox News battleground states, that GOP edge widens to 53% to 35% among likely voters.

The Kansas Supreme Court said that it will hear the case of Chad Taylor (D), “a former Senate candidate who has filed a lawsuit seeking to be removed from the ballot. The outcome of the case could carry substantial implications in the battle for the Senate majority,” the Washington Post reports.

“In a two-page order, Chief Justice Lawton R. Nuss said the court will hear oral arguments on Tuesday morning. It will not be heard by a district court, as requested by Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R).”

Boston Globe: “Perhaps more than any other potential 2016 presidential candidate,” Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) “is putting an early emphasis on New Hampshire, a state where his father did well in 2012 and where the ‘Live Free or Die’ motto may provide a template for his ideology. He already has paid staff in the state, talks frequently with local activists, leads in an early poll, and on Thursday night arrived for his third trip of the year.”

“New Hampshire, perhaps better than any other state, neatly illustrates the promise and the peril of any Rand Paul presidential campaign. Paul can capitalize on the passion that his father, Ron Paul, then a US House member from Texas, brought to some segments in the party during presidential bids in 2008 and 2012. But at the same time, Paul must distance himself from his father’s ideology enough to be seen as a viable contender, not just a fringe candidate.”

Nate Cohn: “Republicans hold a narrow but broad advantage across this year’s governor’s contests, according to the newest round of data from The New York Times/CBS News/YouGov online panel of more than 100,000 respondents. They hold at least a nominal lead in 22 of this year’s 35 governor’s races.”

“The sizable Republican advantage is mainly a reflection of incumbency. The Republicans won 23 of 37 states in 2010, and all but three of those Republicans are running for re-election this year. The three retiring Republicans are all from red states.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) “abruptly walked off stage at a gala for Middle Eastern Christians after he was booed for urging the audience to stand behind Israel and Jews,” Bloomberg reports.

Cruz was the keynote speaker at the inaugural conference of a nonprofit group called In Defense of Christians.

“Christians have no greater ally than Israel,” Cruz said, prompting a first round of jeering… He left the stage a short time later, telling the audience “if you will not stand with Israel and the Jews, I will not stand with you. Good night and God bless.”

A new Denver Post poll in Colorado finds Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) barely ahead of challenger Bob Beauprez (R) in the race for governor, 45% to 43%.

A new Civtas poll in North Carolina finds that Sen. Kay Hagan (D) leads challenger Thom Tillis (R) in their race for the U.S. Senate, 46% to 43%.

A new Rasmussen survey finds Hagan ahead by six points, 45% to 39%.

A new Suffolk University poll in Michigan finds Gary Peters (D) leading Terri Lynn Land (R) in the U.S. Senate race by nine points, 46% to 37%.

Said pollster David Paleologos: “Recent independent ads linking Terri Lynn Land to the Koch brothers appear to be working. Land’s favorability is upside-down, with a higher unfavorable rating.”

Meanwhile, the race for the governor is much tighter, with Mark Schauer (D) leading Gov. Rick Snyder (R) by two points, 45% to 43%.

“I may not run in 2016, but I’ve spent the last 20-plus months preparing. If I don’t run, it won’t be because I’m not prepared.”

— Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R), in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

First Read: “In our latest survey, women preferred a Democratic-controlled Congress by seven points, 47%-40%. Although that’s down from our previous polls and although Republicans have an ever bigger lead among men (12 points), do note that our Sept. 2010 NBC/WSJ poll showed Democrats with just a three-point edge among female voters, 46%-43%. Bottom line: Democrats holding on to the Senate will largely come down to whether they win women by double digits in November.”