“With less than two months to go before the midterm congressional elections, 14% of Americans approve of how Congress is handling its job. This rating is one of the lowest Gallup has measured in the fall before a midterm election since 1974.”

Stu Rothenberg: “While the current Rothenberg Political Report ratings don’t show it, I am now expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats. But I wouldn’t be shocked by a larger gain.”

“I’ve witnessed 17 general elections from my perch in D.C., including eight midterms, and I sometimes develop a sense of where the cycle is going before survey data lead me there. Since my expectations constitute little more than an informed guess, I generally keep them to myself. This year is different. I am sharing them with you.”

Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS) said he’s “damn proud” to live in Dodge City, KS but added he’s only been home “about seven times” this year, BuzzFeed reports.

Roll Call: “For most of the country, this October’s television airwaves are filled with two things — baseball and politics — and the two rarely mix. But the mid-autumn climax of Major League Baseball could impact the Senate playing field in key states where teams are primed to make the playoffs. Televised sports make for a desirable market for political advertisers because viewers are less likely to record and fast-forward through commercials.”

A new Loras College poll in Iowa finds Bruce Braley (D) leading Joni Ernst (R) in the U.S. Senate race by four points, 45% to 41%.

Morning Line: “It’s easy to dismiss this election and say it doesn’t matter all that much, because there will be continued gridlock. And in a lot of ways, because of the 60 vote threshold to pass almost any legislation, that’s true. But here are two reasons why the election does matter: (1) this is an obvious one, but it’s about tone and power positioning. For the first two years of the Obama presidency, Washington was dominated by Democrats. Then one piece shifted to Republicans with their taking the House after the 2010 midterms. Obama was re-elected in 2012 and Democrats held the Senate but now that is threatened. If Republicans take the Senate, it will be a further erosion of this president’s leverage in his last two years. (2) A more practical and overlooked area is judges. When Majority Leader Harry Reid changed the rules to require just just a simple majority to fill lower court vacancies, this president has been able to fast track his nominees. If Republicans control the chamber, it will be much harder for this president to get them through.”

Said Jeff Greenfield: “With control over the Senate machinery and all committees, I’m not sure Obama could put a single federal judge on the bench-not to mention the end of whatever domestic agenda he might have.”

Three new polls — from Emerson College, Public Policy Polling and Remington Research — find Rep. John Tierney (D-MA) in an unexpectedly tight primary race with challenger Seth Moulton (D).

Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed (D) “says he will host a fundraiser for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jason Carter later this month. Reed divulged the plan exclusively to 11Alive News, ending an impasse in one of the year’s most unlikely political dramas.”

Said Reed: “I said that I was going to support the nominee of the party and I’m getting ready to do more for Jason Carter more than he ever did for me.”

Cleveland Plain Dealer: “He could be hailed as farsighted, a serious leader who opened his party’s doors for all people and generations. Rob Portman could be the Republican Party’s first post-gay-marriage presidential candidate.”

“Social conservatives say a Portman presidency, let alone candidacy, cannot happen for that very reason – that Republicans will vote in primaries to reject someone who flipped on gay marriage. Social conservatives see the issue as fundamental to their values.”

“Yet several forces, political as well as demographic, may converge to render a presidential candidacy by Portman, the Ohio Republican U.S. senator, as at least nominally viable. Key to this is the fact that a Portman candidacy could align with a U.S. Supreme Court decision that would end the legal and constitutional fight over same-sex marriage. Such a ruling could come by next summer, well before the Republican voters go to the first 2016 caucuses and primaries.”