Daily Beast: “She’s baaack–literally with a vengeance. Just eight months after President François Hollande rode into the tabloids on the back of a bodyguard’s scooter, the bedroom farce at the Elysée Palace is getting a provocative second act. Valérie Trierweiler, France’s erstwhile first lady, returns to the spotlight with a top-secret tell-all set to hit French bookstores en masse on Thursday. Spoiler: she’s not happy. And her memoir’s timing couldn’t be worse for Hollande’s flailing presidency.”
Congress Lays Groundwork for War on ISIS
As President Obama “weighs U.S. options for confronting ISIS, the insurgent group in control of parts of Iraq and Syria, lawmakers in both the House and Senate are moving to ensure that the administration has the authority to take military action if necessary,” Roll Call reports.
Wildstein Discussed Bridge Closure with Officer
“As thousands of commuters were stuck in traffic on the George Washington Bridge during lane closures apparently ordered by Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) aides as political payback, a Port Authority of New York and New Jersey police lieutenant with ties to Christie was eating breakfast with the executive who ordered the closures,” the AP reports.
Can Young Candidates Fix Our Government?
David Gergen: “At a time when national politics is so broken, a new generation of young men and women who first cut their teeth in service to others are now venturing into the political arena, offering us fresh, idealistic leadership that may be our best hope of breaking out of today’s mess.”
“This new wave of candidates comes from two vital streams in American life: young veterans coming home from protecting their country overseas along with others who served their country back home as volunteers in classrooms, hospitals, shelters, and beyond. Veterans and social entrepreneurs — they are joining forces and could become a new, powerful force for change.”
Presidential Approval or Generic Ballot?
Nate Cohn: “Usually, election watchers can get a good read on the mood of the electorate by looking at presidential approval ratings or at the generic ballot, which asks voters which party they would prefer to control Congress. Historically, they’re fairly interchangeable. Leo happens to use the generic ballot; the Washington Post’s Monkey Cage blog uses the president’s approval rating.”
“This year, the two metrics are not so interchangeable. Mr. Obama’s approval ratings are stuck in the low 40s — around 42 percent… That’s lower than at this time in 2010, so it’s easy to see why so many have taken the president’s ratings as a sign of an impending catastrophe for Democrats…. The generic ballot, on the other hand, puts the Democrats ahead by about 2 points among registered voters. That’s nothing like 2010, when the Republicans had opened a 3-point lead on the generic ballot by early September after making steady gains over the summer.”
Democrat Drops Senate Bid in Kansas
The race for U.S. Senate in Kansas “no longer has a Democrat,” the Wichita Eagle reports.
Chad Taylor (D) “dropped out of the race Wednesday, opening up room for independent candidate Greg Orman to face Sen. Pat Roberts (R) head-on in November… Taylor’s decision to drop out comes on the same day that Orman was endorsed by more than 70 former Republican lawmakers.”
DNC Chief Says Walker’s Policies are Like Domestic Violence
DNC Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz ripped Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s (R) policies by comparing them to acts of domestic violence against women, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Said Schultz: “Scott Walker has given women the back of his hand. I know that is stark. I know that is direct. But that is reality. What Republican Tea Party extremists like Scott Walker are doing is they are grabbing us by the hair and pulling us back. It is not going to happen on our watch.”
GOP Favored to Take Control of Senate
The latest FiveThirtyEight forecast gives Republicans a 64% chance of winning control of the U.S. Senate.
Key takeaway: “An equally important theme is the high degree of uncertainty around that outcome. A large number of states remain competitive, and Democrats could easily retain the Senate. It’s also possible that the landscape could shift further in Republicans’ direction. Our model regards a true Republican wave as possible: It gives the party almost a 25 percent chance of finishing with 54 or more Senate seats once all the votes are counted.”
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“I am not going to create one job, it is not my job to create jobs. It’s yours.”
— Scott Brown (R), quoted by TPM, at a campaign stop in New Hampshire.
McConnell Leads in Kentucky
A new CNN/ORC International poll in Kentucky finds Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) holds a slim four point edge over challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes (D), 50% to 46%.
Key finding: “What might be a troubling data point for Grimes is the number of Democrats — 16% — who said they are supporting or leaning towards supporting McConnell.”
A new Rasmussen survey has McConnell ahead by five points, 46% to 41%.
Trolling the Trackers
National Journal: “Some trackers have been following the same candidate for years–around the state, around the country, on planes, on buses, in town halls, in swanky fundraisers–all on the off chance that they’ll get the candidate on tape saying something politically distasteful or flip-flopping on a position.”
The Inside Story of How Billionaires Took Over Politics
What If Republicans Don’t Win the Senate?
First Read: “The GOP got all of its desired candidates in the top Senate races — meaning there isn’t a flawed Christine O’Donnell, Todd Akin, or Sharron Angle… Republicans not winning back the Senate and not picking up double-digit House seats could be a nightmare for the party. For one thing, it will hurt recruiting in 2016 (which expects to be a tougher year map- and electorate-wise). It could spark leadership fights. And it would rekindle the central ideological debate inside the party — should it be more conservative or more pragmatic? (Conservatives will argue if the party comes up short, that the compromise candidates didn’t fire up the base; the establishment wing will argue that the brand damage done by the conservative wing was to blame.)”
“Currently, there are two schools of thought among Republicans. One school (those focused on the Senate races) is that winning back the Senate is the end-all, be all. But the other school of thought (especially those with an eye on 2016) is that they’d prefer coming JUST short of Senate control, because a GOP in charge of both the House and Senate could potentially help Hillary Clinton. But don’t underestimate the negative consequences of a Republican Party coming up short with this map and in this political climate.”
Democrats Have Ground Game Advantage
GOP sources tell Politico “that an ambitious Democratic turnout initiative will give the party a potentially significant 1- or 2-percentage point boost in some key states.”
Senate Forecast Barely Gives Republicans the Edge
The Washington Post‘s forecasting model now suggests Republicans have only a 52% chance of winning control of the U.S. Senate — down from an 86% chance in July.
“It’s not that races have narrowed, but that the model has begun weighting information differently — mainly by (a) incorporating polling data (where possible) after the relevant primaries, and by (b) increasing the weight that polls have in the forecast. What this suggests is that in several states, Democrats are arguably ‘out-performing’ the fundamentals.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“It’s a punch to the gut.”
— Secretary of State John Kerry, quoted by The Hill, on the beheading of journalist Steven Sotloff by ISIS.
Who Runs for Office?
Pew Research: “Our data show that those who say they have sought office tend to be white, male and well-educated. In fact, while women account for half of the adult population, they are just a quarter of those who say they have run for office. This is in keeping with other research that has documented the imbalance… There is a similar imbalance when it comes to race and ethnicity, with whites disproportionately more likely to have sought office and blacks and Hispanics less likely to have done so.”
‘Vapid Granolas’ Not Wanted
Rep. Steve Stockman (R-TX) is looking for an intern this fall but “mushy pleasers/appeasers” should not apply, the Washington Post reports.
From the help-wanted ad: “HINT: vapid granolas who fear guns, hate babies, are ashamed of America, and think Islamic terrorists and illegal aliens are just misunderstood will not be comfortable here.”
