A new SurveyUSA poll in Ohio finds Gov. John Kasich (R) with a double-digit lead over challenger Ed Fitzgerald (D) in the race for governor, 46% to 36%.
U.S. Economy Slows to a Crawl
“The U.S. economy slowed in the first quarter to one of the weakest paces of the five-year recovery as the frigid winter appeared to have curtailed business investment and weakness overseas hurt exports,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Wonk Wire: The rise in low wage jobs
What’s Wrong with Senate Forecasting Models
Josh Kraushaar: “It’s not that the models aren’t effective at what they’re designed to do. It’s that the methodology behind them is flawed. Unlike baseball, where the sample size runs in the thousands of at-bats or innings pitched, these models overemphasize a handful of early polls at the expense of on-the-ground intelligence on candidate quality. As Silver might put it, there’s a lot of noise to the signal.”
“The models also undervalue the big-picture indicators suggesting that 2014 is shaping up to be a wave election for Republicans, the type of environment where even seemingly safe incumbents can become endangered.”
The Upshot gives Republicans a 54% chance of winning control of the Senate.
GOP Presidential Race Wide Open
“The 2016 Republican presidential nominating battle is shaping up as the most wide-open in a generation, with a new Washington Post-ABC News poll showing five prospective candidates within four percentage points of one another at the top and a half-dozen more in the mix.”
“The picture is very different on the Democratic side, where former secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton is the clear front-runner. In a hypothetical matchup, Clinton leads former Florida governor Jeb Bush — seen by many GOP establishment figures as the party’s strongest general-election candidate — 53% to 41%.”
Our Darkest Election Yet
Robert Maguire: “When it comes to voters’ knowledge about the deep-pocketed donors who are trying to influence their vote, the 2014 election cycle is on track to be the darkest election in recent history. And that’s saying a lot, as each of the last three elections has shattered dark money records set in the preceding cycle.”
Americans Want to Pull Back From World Stage
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds that “Americans in large numbers want the U.S. to reduce its role in world affairs even as a showdown with Russia over Ukraine preoccupies Washington.”
“In a marked change from past decades, nearly half of those surveyed want the U.S. to be less active on the global stage, with fewer than one-fifth calling for more active engagement–an anti-interventionist current that sweeps across party lines.”
“The poll showed that approval of President Obama’s handling of foreign policy sank to the lowest level of his presidency, with 38% approving, at a time when his overall job performance drew better marks than in recent months.”
Richard Haass:
“American foreign policy is in troubling disarray. The result is
unwelcome news for the world, which largely depends upon the United
States to promote order in the absence of any other country able and
willing to do so. And it is bad for the U.S., which cannot insulate
itself from the world.”
Christie Still Raising Huge Sums of Money
“If the Bridgegate scandal irreparably shattered Chris Christie’s standing on the national political stage, someone forgot to tell the people who write the checks,” Scott Conroy reports.
“During the first three months of 2014, the Christie-chaired Republican Governors Association raised $23.5 million — a record sum for the first quarter of a midterm election year and almost double what the Democratic Governors Association raised during the same period.”
Crist Still Ahead of Scott in Florida
A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida finds Charlie Crist (D) leading Gov. Rick Scott (R) by 10 points in the race for governor, 48% to 38%.
“Scott has trailed Crist in all five polls Quinnipiac has released since test-matching the two governors head-to-head last year. The margin has ranged from 16 points in March 2013 to seven points in November.”
Boehner Promises No Immigration Plan Conspiracy
“In a closed-door meeting with the GOP conference on Tuesday, House Speaker John A. Boehner downplayed his mocking of fellow Republicans last week and said there is no “conspiracy” to spring an immigration overhaul later this summer,” Roll Call reports.
“Afterward, Boehner reiterated his support for an immigration overhaul, but he said it’s up to President Barack Obama to prove the administration will enforce immigration laws, a position echoed by other GOP lawmakers.”
Patricia Murphy: “Time is running out for the House Republicans to pass an immigration bill. If they don’t activists hope President Obama will act swiftly and decisively.”
Judge Strikes Down Wisconsin Voter ID Law
“In a decision that could have implications nationally and in Wisconsin’s November elections, a federal judge on Tuesday struck down the state’s voter ID law, saying it violated the Voting Rights Act and the U.S. Constitution,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
“The law known as Act 23 had already been blocked by a state judge. For the law to be put back in place, supporters would have to overturn both the state and federal decisions — a possibility that could prove difficult between now and the Nov. 4 election for governor.”
Grayson Claims His Wife Was Married to Another Man
Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) claims in new court filings that when he married his wife, she was already wed to another man and he is seeking an annulment on the basis of bigamy, the Tampa Bay Times reports.
Grayson, who has been married to Lolita Grayson for nearly 24 years, accuses his wife “of fraud, unjust enrichment and misrepresentation, among other claims. He’s also suing for defamation, the new document states, stemming from a disturbance at their home in March.”
Conversation with John Maginnis
John Maginnis, founder of LAPolitics.com, joins us on the Political Wire podcast for a deep dive into the always interesting world of Louisiana politics. It’s a great conversation.
Listen here:
Subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or RSS to get episodes automatically downloaded.
GOP Lawmaker Predicts Boehner Is Done as Speaker
Rep. Mo Brooks (R-AL) is predicting Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) won’t run for the job again and says he would be surprised if he could win re-election by the House, The Hill reports.
Said Brooks: “I don’t think John Boehner will be Speaker this time next year. But I think it’s because, in my judgment, he’s not going to run for re-election as Speaker, but if he does, I’ll be mildly surprised if he can get the 218 votes that the Constitution requires.”
Tight Race in Maine
A new Rasmussen poll in Maine finds Gov. Paul LePage (R) in a dead heat with challenger Michael Michaud (D), 40% to 40%, with Eliot Cutler (I) trailing behind at 14%.
Highly Recommended
I love my iPad but the Kindle Paperwhite is the best e-book reader available. It’s very light and easy to read outside.
And it’s now on sale.
Crist Clings to Small Lead in Florida
A new SurveyUSA poll in Florida finds Charlie Crist (D)leading Gov. Rick Scott (R) in the race for governor, 44% to 41%.
Crist’s lead has slipped two percentage points from the last poll, while Scott remains flat in the survey.
On Wonk Wire
Some great clicks over at Wonk Wire:
- Views on Obamacare Remain Negative, But Most Want Law to Stay
- When Misinformation About Obamacare Can Be Deadly
- 4.8 Million Left Without Medicaid Coverage
- How Congress is Holding Down Medicare Spending
- Majority Support Obamacare Contraceptive Requirement
- A Dip in Economic Confidence
- Solar Energy’s Rapid Rise
Number of Political Dynasty Candidates Rises
Brendan Nyhan: “Just under 9% of members of Congress between 1789 and 1996 were related to a previous member of Congress, according to a 2009 study, including 7% of those who served after 1966. More recently, 12% of all House races without an incumbent candidate between 1994 and 2006 had a member of a political dynasty as a candidate.”
