The New York Times has a very nice comparison chart of the forecasts made by the top election handicappers.
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Romney Donates to McDonnell Legal Defense Fund
Mitt Romney “has made a personal donation of $10,000 to former Virginia governor Robert F. McDonnell’s legal defense fund,” the Washington Post reports.
“McDonnell and his wife, Maureen, were indicted in January on federal charges of bribery and fraud involving their relationship with a prominent Virginia businessman and campaign donor. The McDonnells are scheduled to face trial in July.”
Bevin Loses Campaign Spokeswoman
“In the final weeks of the Kentucky Republican primary election, U.S. Senate candidate Matt Bevin’s (R) chief spokeswoman has left the campaign for an unknown reason,” WFPL reports.
“At least two field operatives have also left the Bevin campaign in recent weeks even as the Tea Party-backed candidate is beginning to run television ads refuting many of McConnell’s attacks.”
Paranoia May Prevent Immigration Vote
Charlie Cook: “Although the Senate did pass comprehensive immigration reform last year, the chances of any kind of significant reform passing the House this year are low at best. Optimists hope that in June or July, after many Republican incumbents have their primaries behind them, or possibly in a lame-duck session after the election, the House will take up the issue. The smart money is against that happening.”
“First, the votes just don’t seem to be there. Second, House Republican insiders, even those who privately would like to see a bill pass, are pessimistic because many in their ranks do not trust that Obama and the Democrats won’t hang them out to dry. Their fear is that even if the House passed something, which would undoubtedly create enormous divisions and political problems in their conservative base, they have little confidence that Democrats wouldn’t move the goalposts on them, leaving the GOP with no progress on immigration reform but having a badly divided party.”
Lawmaker Scraps Plan to Make Bible the Official State Book
Louisiana state Rep. Thomas Carmody (R) “scrapped his proposal to make the Holy Bible the official state book before it could go to a full vote of the state House of Representatives,” the New Orleans Times Picayune reports.
“The bill had become a distraction, he said. In introducing the legislation, Carmody always maintained he was not taking steps to establish a state religion, but rather to educate people.”
Another Bridge Scandal in New Jersey Pops Up
“The George Washington Bridge may not be the only one used in an apparent act of political retribution by appointees of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and a familiar name in that scandal has surfaced anew,” CNN reports.
“Last year, the mayor of Jersey City was supposed to meet with the state’s transportation commissioner about a construction project that would temporarily close a section of the Pulaski Skyway, an aging bridge and elevated highway badly in need of an overhaul. But when Democrat Steven Fulop decided not to cross party lines and publicly support Christie’s re-election, a meeting with Commissioner James Simpson was canceled.”
Interviews point fingers at a former Christie deputy, Bridget Anne Kelly, who last summer apparently authored the now-infamous email: “Time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee.”
Boozman to Undergo Heart Surgery
Sen. John Boozman (R-AR) is undergoing emergency heart surgery, Roll Call reports.
His office confirmed a report from the Northwest Arkansas Business Journal, but did not provide any further details other than to note in a statement that he “is receiving excellent care.”
Supreme Court Says States May End Affirmative Action
“A splintered Supreme Court voted 6-2 that states may end racial preferences without violating the U.S. Constitution,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The case came from Michigan, which in 2006 passed a voter initiative ending racial preferences. A federal appeals court had struck down the measure, finding that it served to disadvantage minorities in the political process.”
“Justice Anthony Kennedy, writing for a plurality, said that the case wasn’t about resolving the debate over affirmative action, but rather ‘who may resolve it.’ He wrote the Constitution doesn’t forbid voters from ending the practice, which was instituted by officials at the University of Michigan and other state agencies.”
Republicans Ignore Earth Day
National Journal: “For years, mentions of Earth Day have sprung up each April from members of both parties. In April 2010, Democrats spoke of Earth Day over 150 times, mostly in commemoration of its 40th anniversary. But no Republican has uttered the words “Earth Day” on the House or Senate floor since 2010.”
Class War Brewing Inside the Republican Party
The Atlantic notes “a vital reality about the state of the Republican Party as its members prepare to select a standard-bearer for the 2016 presidential primary: The GOP has long ago shed its stereotype of being the party catering to the wealthy.”
“These days, the GOP tone and agenda are set by a voting bloc of mostly white, blue-collar workers whose sensibilities skew more toward NASCAR than golf. In a general election, the party’s most reliable supporters are white voters without college degrees. And they increasingly control the contest for the White House nod: In 2008, according to a tabulation of exit-poll data acquired by the National Journal, blue-collar workers made up 51 percent of all GOP primary voters.”
Battle for Senate is a Toss Up
The Upshot: “Every day, our computer churns through the latest polls and reams of historical data to calculate both parties’ chances of winning control of the Senate. Although the Democrats currently have a 51% chance, that doesn’t mean we’re predicting the Democrats to win the Senate — the probability is essentially the same as a coin flip.”
“The Republicans’ chances have been declining in recent weeks, falling from a recent high of 54%. This is mostly due to some unfavorable polls in Arkansas and Iowa.”
The model behind these projections is called LEO.
The Myth of Swing Voters
Lynn Vavreck: “If you want to understand the 2014 midterm elections, remember this simple fact about American politics: There just aren’t that many swing voters.”
“Many people change their minds over the course of a campaign about whether to vote and even which candidate they’re leaning toward. Ultimately, though, voters tend to come home to their favored party. There are relatively few voters who cross back and forth between the parties during a campaign or even between elections.”
Southern Democrats Are Less Vulnerable Than You Think
Nate Cohn: “Democrats’ hopes of keeping their Senate majority this November may well hinge on the ability of three of their incumbents to hold onto their seats deep in enemy territory: the South. To take the Senate and consolidate their control of Congress, Republicans need only extend their stranglehold on Dixie to Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina, all of which voted for Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election.”
“Yet the hopes of these three states’ incumbent Democratic senators — Mark Pryor, Mary Landrieu and Kay Hagan — are still alive. That may be surprising in light of the region’s lurch to the right, but it shouldn’t be: Incumbency is powerful. In the South, Democratic incumbents have won 85 percent of the time since 1990, and 77 percent since 2000.”
Many Still Undecided in Maryland
A new St. Marys College poll in Maryland finds Anthony Brown (D) leading the Democratic race for governor with 27%, followed by Doug Gansler (D) at 11% and Heather Mizuer (D) at 8%.
On the Republican side, Larry Hogan (R) leads with 16%, followed by David Craig (R) at 8%, Ron George (R) at 4% and Charles Lollar (R) at 4%.
Dole Says First Termers Not Ready for White House
Former Sen. Bob Dole (R-KS) doesn’t think “first-termers” like Sens. Marco Rubio (R-FL), Rand Paul (R-KY) or Ted Cruz (R-TX) are ready to be president, the Huffington Post reports.
Said Dole: “A number of the younger members, first-termers like Rand Paul, Rubio and that extreme-right-wing guy — Ted Cruz? All running for president now. I don’t think they’ve got enough experience yet.”
Millions Spent to Replace Radel
“Republicans have spent millions ahead of Tuesday’s special primary to replace former Rep. Trey Radel (R-FL) — and the 19th District television airwaves show it,” Roll Call reports.
“Three of Radel’s potential successors boast at least $1 million in airtime behind each of their efforts — both from their own campaigns and outside groups boosting them. It’s a staggering number for an otherwise under-the-radar primary in a special election.”
12 States Still Have Anti-Sodomy Laws
“A dozen states still have anti-sodomy laws on the books 10 years after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled they are unconstitutional,” the AP reports.
“Of 14 states that had anti-sodomy laws, only Montana and Virginia have repealed theirs since the Supreme Court ruling.”
Democratic Senators Hit Silicon Valley
“Just weeks after a key Supreme Court ruling on political fundraising, the cash marathon has begun to the Bay Area — with a crowd of Democratic Senators hitting Silicon Valley to pick up campaign checks,” the San Francisco Chronicle reports.
