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The Myth of Inevitability

June 5, 2014 at 8:54 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Joe Klein: “We are sure to be smothered by Hillary (or hillary!, as an old campaign button had it) well past the summer solstice… I approach the coming spectacle with a combination of obsession, exhaustion, dread and exhilaration. This is going to be horrible fun – and crucial, as the Clintons always are… Some presidential campaigns are about inevitability. Others are about energy. The best have both, but it’s rare: inevitability tends to crush energy.”

“I’ve seen her candor more than once, but always off the record. That will have to change. If Hillary Clinton hopes to succeed, she’s going to have to drop the veil – spontaneously, quite possibly in a crucial moment, like a debate – and trust the public to accept who she really is. Absent that, there is no such thing as inevitability.”

Quote of the Day

June 5, 2014 at 8:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“You can’t be the candidate that shakes down more money on Wall Street than anybody since I don’t know, Woodrow Wilson, and be the populist. You can’t be the one to say we’re going to focus on rebuilding America if you voted to go to the Iraq war.”

— Former Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D), quoted by Time, on a possible presidential bid by Hillary Clinton in 2016.

McDaniel Seen as Having Edge in Runoff

June 5, 2014 at 8:17 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jackson Clarion-Ledger: “Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) needs a large, broad turnout in a June 24 runoff — a steep hill, since runoffs are typically parochial with low turnout. Challenger Chris McDaniel needs his blue collar and tea party base of voters in his strongholds to turn out strong again. They still appear fired up and ready. Both Republican U.S. Senate campaigns need money, lots of it fast, or outside groups willing to spend on their behalf.”

“As the two campaigns analyzed Tuesday’s voting — in which they fought to nearly a draw — and plotted strategy moving forward, most prognoses had the runoff tilted in McDaniel’s favor.”

However, Harry Enten
says “we should be cautious in speculating how the Mississippi runoff
will go. There hasn’t been a GOP primary for Senate or governor in the
past 26 years in which an incumbent didn’t get the most votes but still
made a runoff. We’re in mostly uncharted territory.”

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Democrats Unlikely to Prevail in Mississippi

June 5, 2014 at 7:34 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Cohn says Democrats shouldn’t get their hopes up about winning a U.S. Senate seat in Mississippi — even if tea partier Chris McDaniel (R) prevails in a runoff against Sen. Thad Cochran (R).

“There is no state more polarized than Mississippi. Eighty percent of voters are black or white evangelical Christian. And the problem for Democrats is that they’re on the wrong side of the ledger. In 2012, 50 percent of voters were white evangelical Christians, and they voted 95 percent for Mitt Romney. They form a nearly unbreakable bloc, and they’re augmented by the state’s deeply conservative non-evangelical white voters. Over all, Mr. Obama barely exceeded 10 percent of white voters, if at all… There just might not be a road to victory for Democrats in Mississippi.”

The Velcro President

June 5, 2014 at 7:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

John Feehery: “They said that Ronald Reagan was the Teflon President. Nothing, not even Iran-Contra, could stick to him. Barack Obama is the Velcro President. Everything is sticking to him.”

“He probably thought he could get some major political mileage out of bringing home the only prisoner of war held by the Taliban. He even did a Rose Garden ceremony to announce the deal. Boy, was he wrong.”

The GOP’s Science-Free Stand on Science

June 5, 2014 at 6:49 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jon Stewart has a field day with Republicans who admit they “aren’t qualified” to debate climate change but then debate climate change. It’s brilliant.

[Read more…]

Top Christie Aide Called to Testify

June 5, 2014 at 6:28 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) chief of staff “has been subpoenaed to testify Monday before the legislative committee investigating the politically motivated tolls lane closures to the George Washington Bridge,” the Newark Star Ledger reports.

Yes, Obama Broke the Law

June 5, 2014 at 6:26 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Marc Ambinder: “There’s no bones about it: in trading five Taliban detainees at Guantanamo Bay for Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl, President Obama willfully broke a law. And this wasn’t an old law, or a law that was passed before he became president. It was his law — or more accurately, successive versions of the military budget bill called the National Defense Authorization Act.”

“Now, Obama did not like the provision that required him to give Congress 30 days of notice before transferring detainees out of Guantanamo. And in a signing statement, he said as much: the executive branch’s ability to defend the country shouldn’t be constrained by the notification period. But the law’s language was clear, as was Congress’s intent.”

The Hill: “A special briefing by senior administration officials Wednesday evening failed to sell skeptical senators concerned about President Obama’s decision to trade five Taliban commanders for Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl’s release.”

Rick Perry’s Legacy is Unraveling

June 5, 2014 at 5:27 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“As he gears up for a possible second presidential run, Texas Gov. Rick Perry is crisscrossing the country extolling a business-first philosophy he says made his state’s economy white-hot — and can work for the rest of America too,” the AP reports.

“But back home, members of Perry’s own party seem poised to dismantle key parts of his legacy. The longest-serving governor in state history isn’t seeking re-election and may see two of his achievements — distributing hundreds of millions of dollars to attract top employers to Texas and stockpiling a rainy day fund robust enough to bankroll infrastructure projects — swept away not long after he moves out of the governor’s mansion.”

Tea Partier Locked in Courthouse with Ballots

June 4, 2014 at 5:45 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

TPM: “A Mississippi tea party official with close ties to U.S. Senate candidate Chris McDaniel apparently ended up inside a locked and empty county courthouse late Tuesday night after primary election results had come in.”

Candidate Arrested After Losing Primary

June 4, 2014 at 5:21 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

South Dakota U.S. Senate candidate Annette Bosworth (R) turned herself in following the issuance of a warrant for her arrest just after she lost the election, the Sioux Falls Argus Leader reports.

Keloland: “Bosworth confirms that she has been charged with six counts of perjury and six counts of offering a false or forged instrument for filing… Concerns were raised during her campaign that she had submitted nominating petitions where she was listed as the petition circulator but was allegedly not in the country at the time the petition was circulated.”

According to Business Insider, Bosworth’s Facebook and Twitter accounts provided evidence against her.

McChrystal Defends Prisoner Swap

June 4, 2014 at 5:13 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Retired General Stanley McChrystal told Yahoo News that Army Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl’s critics should not to “judge” him until all of the facts are in and sharply defended the extensive and risky search efforts that claimed the lives of some of his fellow soldiers.

Said McChrystal: “We did a huge number of operations to try to stop the Taliban from being able to move him across the border into Pakistan. And we made a great effort, and put a lot of people at risk in doing that, but that’s what you should do. That’s what soldiers do for each other.”

Graham Threatens Obama with Impeachment

June 4, 2014 at 2:18 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) warned that Republican lawmakers “would call for President Obama’s impeachment if he released more prisoners from Guantanamo Bay without congressional approval,” The Hill reports.

“Republicans worry Obama may try to shut down the prison camp unilaterally after congressional opposition has repeatedly stymied efforts to pass legislation to close it.”

Graham May Avoid Runoff in South Carolina

June 4, 2014 at 2:14 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Clemson University Palmetto poll in South Carolina finds Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) leading the GOP primary for Senate with 49%, followed by Lee Bright (R) at 9% and five other candidates in the low single digits. Another 35% of respondents said they were still undecided.

Graham needs 50% support to avoid a runoff.

Wehby Breaks Silence Over Police Reports

June 4, 2014 at 1:02 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Oregon U.S. Senate candidate Monica Wehby (R) spoke to the Oregonian about the police reports which said she stalked an ex-boyfriend and harassed her ex-husband.

Said Wehby: “I think these are personal matters that have been put to rest by the fact that both of these guys are close friends of mine and very supportive of my candidacy. I don’t think any of us – man or woman – would like to answer out in the public square for things that we say to our spouses in the heat of an argument. I find this to be a despicable attack by Merkley and his band of bullies.”

“Merkley has said he didn’t know anything about the report before it became public and said he doesn’t intend to make an issue of her personal life.”

Major Super PAC Won’t Contest Mississippi Runoff

June 4, 2014 at 12:14 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Cook Political Report has learned that American Crossroads is staying out of the Mississippi GOP Senate runoff, denying Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) “a major source of outside spending.”

Runoffs Not Kind to Incumbents

June 4, 2014 at 11:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Fix: “We looked at six times since 2000 in which an incumbent has faced a primary runoff, and then compared the primary vote totals to the runoff totals in each race. In all but one case, the challenger took at least 75 percent off the votes that were ‘up for grabs’ in the runoff, and in two of those cases, the incumbent actually lost votes in the runoff.”

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

June 4, 2014 at 11:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“He believes somehow that he’s become a monarch or an emperor that can basically ignore the law and do whatever he wants.”

— Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), quoted by The Week, on President Obama.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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