A new Public Policy Polling survey in Kansas finds Sen. Pat Roberts (R) leading challenger Chad Taylor (D), 32% to 25%, with independent Greg Orman at 23%, and Libertarian Randall Batson at 3%.

Key finding: “As weak as a 32% standing is for an incumbent, that still gives him a pretty clear lead due to his opponents pretty much splitting the anti-Roberts vote evenly. But if one of them was to pull out Roberts would really be in trouble.”

In the race for governor, Paul Davis (D) leads over Gov. Sam Brownback (R) by two points, 39% to 37%, with Libertarian candidate Keen Umbehr at 9%

Tampa Bay Times: “With Barack Obama’s approval ratings lately barely cracking 40 percent, plenty of Democrats will keep their distance from the president heading into the midterms, just as Alex Sink did she when ran for governor in 2010. Not Charlie Crist, who said today he hopes to be campaigning side by side with the president.”

Illinois gubernatorial candidate Bruce Rauner (R) “revealed to a small group in a private meeting that the closest he was to punching someone in the governor’s race came after a dust-up before last Spring’s Greek parade” with Gov. Pat Quinn’s (D) camp, the Chicago Sun Times reports.

“Quinn’s campaign says it doesn’t know what Rauner is talking about,”

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A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Sen. Kay Hagan (D) leading challenger Thom Tillis (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 42% to 38%, with Libertarian Sean Haugh at 8%.

In a two way race, Hagan leads by just one point at 43% to 42%.

A new SurveyUSA poll confirms what many recent Georgia polls show: David Perdue (R) is building a solid lead over Michelle Nunn (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 41%.

In the race for governor, Gov. Nathan Deal (R) tops challenger Jason Carter (D), 48% to 39%.

NBC News: “Republican governors, once considered among the party’s best hopes for taking back the White House, have suffered significant setbacks in recent months. And their legal and political woes – both large and small – have made the still-developing 2016 presidential race look even more unpredictable.”

“What’s more, it all comes as congressional Republicans battle low-approval numbers and with no clear heir apparent to be the GOP’s next standard bearer.”

The latest Monkey Cage forecast gives Republicans an 86% chance of winning control of the U.S. Senate after the midterm elections.

The Upshot gives Republicans a 58% chance.

“Republicans seeking to unseat the U.S. Senate incumbent in North Carolina have cut in half the portion of their top issue ads citing Obamacare, a sign that the party’s favorite attack against Democrats is losing its punch,” Bloomberg reports.

“The shift — also taking place in competitive states such as Arkansas and Louisiana — shows Republicans are easing off their strategy of criticizing Democrats over the Affordable Care Act now that many Americans are benefiting from the law and the measure is unlikely to be repealed.”

“The party had been counting on anti-Obamacare sentiment to spur Republican turnout in its quest for a U.S. Senate majority, just as the issue did when Republicans took the House in 2010. Now, Republicans are seeking a new winning formula for an election less than three months away.”

Wonk Wire: There’s a reason Obamacare is working

Howard Dean still thinks Hillary Clinton “will have a challenger in the Democratic field — maybe several. But he won’t be one of them. And if Clinton does run, Dean sounds like he’s ready to join the team,” CNN reports.

Said Dean: “I am a huge Hillary Clinton fan. I just am. Not because I hope to get a job. I know her; I’ve known her for a long time. I think she has an enormous mental capacity to do analysis and let the chips fall where they may. If she is president, which I hope she is, I think she is going to be a terrific president,”

Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) believes Democrats will retain control of the U.S. Senate after the midterm elections but said he’s most concerned about the open seat in South Dakota, where Sen. Tim Johnson (D) is stepping down, the Sioux Falls Argus Leader reports.

Said Reid: “We are going to lose in South Dakota, more than likely.”

A new Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll finds Mike Rounds (R) leading Rick Weiland (D) by 25 points, 49% to 24%.

Sen. Harry Reid’s (D-NV) reelection “is more than two years off, but the Koch brothers’ political machine is already methodically laying the groundwork that will be used to try to take him out,” Politico reports.

“The efforts in recent months have been largely subterranean, but they are unmistakable. A handful of nonprofit groups in the vast political network helmed by allies of the conservative billionaires Charles and David Koch have established or expanded permanent ground operations in Reid’s backyard. Focused on wooing key demographics like Latinos and veterans, they’ve also paid for ads assailing the Senate Democratic leader.”

The Rothenberg Political Report shifted six House races in favor of Republicans as “district-level data demonstrates a difficult landscape for Democratic candidates.”