A new Gallup poll finds 45% of Democrats and independents who lean Democratic say they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual, while nearly as many, 44%, are less enthusiastic.
In contrast, 58% of Republicans and independents who lean Republican describe themselves as more enthusiastic about voting.
Michael Lewis interviews former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) on the “nightmare scenario” that has become the state’s economy.
“In November 2005 he called a special election that sought votes on four reforms: limiting state spending, putting an end to the gerrymandering of legislative districts, limiting public-employee-union spending on elections, and lengthening the time it took for public-school teachers to get tenure. All four propositions addressed, directly or indirectly, the state’s large and growing financial mess. All four were defeated; the votes weren’t even close. From then until the end of his time in office he was effectively gelded: the legislators now knew that the people who had elected them to behave exactly the way they were already behaving were not going to undermine them when appealed to directly.”
The Des Moines Register got an early copy of Newt Gingrich’s “21st Century Contract with America” which will call for Americans “to have new choices in how they buy health insurance, pay their income taxes and save for retirement.”
“Gingrich’s new contract calls for dozens of other ideas he has called breathtaking in scale and visionary. He vows to veto any tax increase. He wants speedier release of breakthrough drugs for brain diseases. He wants development of government land in Alaska and Nevada to bring in revenue.”
The plan will be formally unveiled later today.
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“We’ll act accordingly.”
— New Hampshire Secretary of State William Gardner, quoted by the New Hampshire Union Leader, noting that Florida moving up its primary would not impact New Hampshire being the first presidential primary state.
There’s good news for Jon Huntsman in the latest Fox News poll: He’s got 4% support nationally, which more than the minimum threshold to qualify for the next Republican presidential debate on October 18.
Rudy Giuliani “dispatched a key emissary to New Hampshire on Wednesday to gauge their interest in his possible presidential bid,” the AP reports.
“Giuliani has visited the first-in-the-nation primary state four times already this year and advisers have maintained regular contact with potential staffers in the event he decides to seek the presidency. During his last trip in July, Giuliani said he wasn’t convinced any of the candidates were strong enough to defeat President Barack Obama. Until he is, he said he wouldn’t rule out a run of his own.”
After locking her husband out of their home, Illinois state Sen. Suzi Schmidt (R) “called 911, identified herself as an elected official, asked police to ‘ignore’ her husband if he called and said he feared her because she had ‘connections,’ according to newly released police reports and recordings of the call,” the Chicago Tribune reports.
“Amid a host of allegations — that the Republican senator rammed her car into her husband’s during a subsequent row in August and then, just this week, bit him and struck him with a cellphone — the recordings raise the question of whether Schmidt was seeking to use her political clout to influence Lake County authorities.”
“The surging Hispanic population in several states that figure to be crucial to the outcome of next year’s election” — particularly Florida, Nevada and New Mexico — “is prompting an early scramble by both parties to influence Hispanic voters,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The trend is particularly important to President Obama, who has seen his support among white voters sag, putting his hold on several swing states in danger. He is ramping up an urgent effort to win support from Latinos, while Republicans are trying to build on doubts among them about his stewardship of the economy.”
A new Fox News poll shows Mitt Romney leading the Republican presidential field with 23%, followed by Rick Perry at 19% and Herman Cain at 17%.
Since last month, Romney is up one point, Perry is down 10 points and Cain is up 6 points.
The remaining field: Newt Gingrich is at 11%, Ron Paul is at 6% and Michele Bachmann is at 3%.
David Frum: “Attention, Chris Christie fans. If you are looking for a Republican
nominee who could actually do the job of president, who does not repel
independent voters, who can survive a 90-minute debate without saying
anything foolish, why the hell not Mitt Romney?”
“Why am I in it? It’s not the next step of my career, by the way. I don’t have a
political career.”
— Mitt Romney, in an appearance on Morning Joe, which leads Jonathan Chait to note it’s not for a lack of trying.
Just published: FDR, Dewey, and the Election of 1944 by David M. Jordan.
“A fast-moving, blow-by-blow account of the often neglected wartime
campaign that pitted Franklin Delano Roosevelt against
Republican Thomas E. Dewey, with pollsters divided to
the very end. For political junkies there is suspense,
backroom dealing, and surprises about both presidential and
vice-presidential nominations, as well as where the
parties would stand on the future both at home and
abroad.”
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut finds Rep. Chris Murphy (D) leading Chris Shays (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 43% to 39%, and beating Linda McMahon (R), 50% to 43%.
However, Shays would beat Susan Bysiewicz (D) if she was the Democratic nominee, 48% to 37%.
Though primary numbers were not released, they show McMahon “has a large lead” in the GOP primary contest with Shays.
Attention Chris Christie and Sarah Palin: The deadline to get on the Florida Republican party ballot is October 31, CNN reports.
The next filing deadlines: South Carolina on November 1, Michigan on November 15 and Missouri on November 22.
Meanwhile, New Hampshire’s filing period ends November 18, but Secretary of State William
Gardner has the authority to change the filing period to accommodate a possible earlier primary date.
“Not sure if he saw the movie?”
— Mitt Romney, quoted by Politico, on David Axelrod’s comment that Obama’s re-election was going to be a “titanic struggle.”
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida finds Mitt Romney leading Rick Perry in the GOP presidential race, 30% to 24%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 10%. All other candidates are in the single digits.
Key finding: “We started this poll on Thursday night before the debate and in those interviews the race was neck and neck with Romney at 33% and Perry at 31%. But in interviews done Friday-Sunday Romney’s lead expanded to double digits at 29-19. More telling might be what happened to Perry’s favorability numbers after the debate — on Thursday night he was at 63/23 with Florida Republicans. Friday-Sunday he was at 48/36. Perry’s poor performance may or may not prove to be a game changer nationally but it definitely appears to have hurt his image in the key state where it occurred.”
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s (R) father tells National Review that his son will make the final decision about a presidential bid. But he claims not to know much about his son’s thinking.
Said Bill Christie: “I’ve never asked him if he’s going to run. I trust if it’s going to happen, I’d be hearing it from him. I tell him, just let me hear any good news, but let me hear it first, or at least before you announce it to the world.”
However, the elder Christie added: “I know he’d be a great president. He has always been a leader. I think he would beat Obama.”
A new American Research Group poll in Iowa finds Mitt Romney leading the GOP presidential field with 21%, followed by Michele Bachmann at 15%, Rick Perry at 14%, and Ron Paul at 12%.
All other candidates are in the single digits.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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