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Kasich Up By Double Digits in Ohio

July 30, 2014 at 6:24 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Quinnipiac poll in Ohio finds Gov. John Kasich (R) leading challenger Ed FitzGerald (D) in the race for governor by double digits, 48% to 36%.

Said pollster Peter Brown: “The Democratic nominee still has a long way to go with little more than three months until Election Day. Almost two-thirds of registered voters don’t know enough about FitzGerald to have an opinion of him. That’s an awful lot of Ohioans who still have to be introduced to him. This survey was conducted during the period in which the Democrat had just begun his television advertising buy.”

Arkansas Senate Race Remains Close

July 30, 2014 at 6:09 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Hendrix College poll in Arkansas finds Tom Cotton (R) leading Sen. Mark Pryor (D) in the U.S. Senate race by two points, 44% to 42%.

Meanwhile, Pryor released an internal poll that shows he has a six point lead, 45% to 39%.

Quinn Trails Badly in Illinois

July 30, 2014 at 5:53 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new We Ask America poll in Illinois finds Bruce Rauner (R) with a big lead over Gov. Pat Quinn (D) in the race for governor, 47% to 33%.


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Visits to Iowa are a Show

July 29, 2014 at 1:53 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Mark Leibovich: “It would be one thing if all of this early activity and attention in Iowa resulted in a smarter electorate, better candidates or a more authentic version of democracy. But in general, the quaint ‘retail’ settings of Iowa diners and New Hampshire living rooms are treated mostly as media sound stages, places where reporters report on how many other reporters showed up… As a result, these scenes have become backdrops for set pieces that blur into an anesthetizing noise: So-and-so has been to Iowa five times; some other so-and-so is ‘thinking about’ running for president; and here’s yet another picture of yet another so-and-so looking a voter right in the eyes and telling him the truth about something or other, as the discerning voters here insist.”

Top Democrat Says GOP Impeachment Talk Helping

July 29, 2014 at 1:45 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

DCCC Chairman Steve Israel (D-NY) said the Republican lawsuit against and push for impeachment of President Obama is paying dividends for his party, according to The Hill.

Said Israel: “I think that the Republican strategy of lawsuits, approaching impeachment, is fundamentally misfiring.”

He added: “Look, I understand their strategy is intended to gin up their base, but it’s having the unintended consequence of moving our base in a midterm election and also moving persuadable voters, swing voters to us in a midterm election.”

Most Wouldn’t Want Obama Campaigning for Them

July 29, 2014 at 11:07 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Fox News poll found that 57% of American voters would not want President Obama to campaign with them if they were running for office this year, while 41% said they would.

Can Democrats Flip Texas, Arizona and Georgia?

July 29, 2014 at 11:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sean Trende uses Nate Silver’s demographic calculator to estimate how long it will take for Texas, Arizona and Georgia to become blue states given current population trends.

“I waited a long time. Arizona finally flips in 2036, and Georgia flips in 2048. Texas never does. Even if we double the rate of Hispanic and African-American population growth, Arizona doesn’t flip until 2024, Georgia until 2028, and Texas until 2032. On the other hand, if we assume a marginal reversion to mean for Republicans among minorities — 11 percent of the African-American vote and 32 percent of the Hispanic vote — only Arizona flips, and then only in 2044.”

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

July 29, 2014 at 10:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“How did I get here? Why am I the guy they shoved out on the end of the diving board, OK, stuck him in the butt with a knife?”

— Parker Griffith (D), quoted by the Huntsville Times, on his decision to run for Alabama governor.

Fiorina Inches Back Into Politics

July 29, 2014 at 9:58 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard CEO who unsuccessfully ran for U.S. Senate in California in 2010, is diving back into electoral politics,” according to U.S. News and World Report.

“For now, her work is focused on pushing back against Democrats’ claim of a Republican-led ‘war on women’ in the 2014 midterms. But her recent moves in the first-in-the-nation primary state of New Hampshire have convinced some she’s eyeing a bigger prize come 2016.”

A Major Unforced Error by Michelle Nunn

July 29, 2014 at 9:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read looks at the leak of a strategy document from Michelle Nunn’s (D) campaign and notes “the revelation isn’t good for her consultants’ business, that’s for sure.”

“More importantly, this is something Nunn can’t afford. If she’s going to win — in this environment, in the red state of Georgia — she’s got to run a flawless campaign. Talk about a major unforced error. And the timing couldn’t be worse for Nunn: This story comes out just after the GOP’s nine-week runoff and with the start of the general election.”

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution headline: “Leaked doc: Michelle Nunn non-profit validated grants to charity with Hamas-tied affiliate”

Are Republicans Repeating Mistakes of 1998?

July 29, 2014 at 9:03 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Byron York: “That’s what scares some Republican strategists. Back in 1998, there was an intense internal debate among Republicans over how much to make the midterms about President Bill Clinton. The strategists who favored attacking the president won the day, but in the end their strategy didn’t work out. Now, there is an intense internal debate among Republicans over how much to make the 2014 midterms about President Barack Obama.”

Democrats Keep Up Impeachment Chatter

July 29, 2014 at 8:58 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Something very strange is happening on Capitol Hill. Democrats can’t talk enough about impeaching a president of their own party. And Republicans keep saying that there isn’t a chance they’ll give it a try.”

“With just three days left until Congress recesses for the month of August, Democrats have successfully kept alive the idea that Speaker John Boehner is mulling impeaching President Obama — an option the Ohio Republican insists he isn’t pursuing.”

Most Money Paid to Fundraisers

July 29, 2014 at 8:54 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Fox Detroit has a report on campaign fundraising that includes this interesting nugget:

“Since 2010, the Conservative Strikeforce has raised nearly $10 million. More than $9 million of the loot was paid to the fundraisers. That means candidates got less than 8 percent of the money donors sent in.”

Brownback Took Loan from Running Mate

July 29, 2014 at 8:46 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback (R) “relied on a loan from his lieutenant governor to raise slightly more money this year than his Democratic challenger,” the Kansas City Star reports.

“Brownback reported taking in $1.2 million for the reporting period ending July 24. That included a $500,000 loan from Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer, a plastic surgeon. Subtract the loan, and challenger Paul Davis (D) would have raised about $378,000 more than Brownback between Jan. 1 and July 24, records show.”

Alexander Internal Poll Shows Him With Huge Lead

July 29, 2014 at 8:29 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Lamar Alexander’s (R-TN) internal polling shows him with a 30-percentage point lead over tea-party challenger Joe Carr in Tennessee’s Republican Senate primary, 53% to 21%, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Conversation with John Dean

July 29, 2014 at 8:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Former Nixon White House counsel John Dean joined us on the Political Wire podcast for a discussion about his fascinating new book, The Nixon Defense: What He Knew and When He Knew It.

Listen here:

Subscribe via iTunes or RSS to get new episodes automatically downloaded to your phone.

Kerry Under Fire from All Sides

July 29, 2014 at 7:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Anyone who has made even a passing glance at the Israeli media in the past few days will have noticed the incredible chorus of criticism being directed at John Kerry right now. The secretary of state has been lambasted by all sides for his apparent failure in attempts to negotiate a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas,” the Washington Post reports.

Daily Beast: “The resumption of violence was the latest example of just how disconnected Kerry’s whirlwind diplomatic efforts have been from the combatants he’s trying to get to stop fighting. The Israeli government has been particularly vocal in its criticism of Kerry’s peacemaker attempts. But in the Palestinian camps, there has been public discontent, too.”

Strip Club Endorses Pastor for Congress

July 29, 2014 at 7:42 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A Phoenix strip club has endorsed a Democratic pastor for Congress. And the candidate, Rev. Jarrett Maupin, says he welcomes the The Great Alaskan Bush Company’s support,” the Arizona Republic reports.

Said Maupin: “The Lord works in mysterious ways.”

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Fishing Expedition: In politics, a fishing expedition is a pejorative phrase to describe an investigation that lacks a clear scope and defined purpose.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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