Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball says Republicans have roughly a 50-50 shot to gain the six seats they need to win control of the U.S. Senate in this year’s midterm elections.

“We now favor Republicans in four Democratic-held seats: Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, as well as — in a ratings change — Arkansas, where Sen. Mark Pryor (D) appears to be at least a slight underdog to Rep. Tom Cotton (R) in a reddening state. Assuming Republicans can win those, they have roughly even odds to win in three other states where there are Democratic incumbents: Alaska, which we’ve long classified as a Toss-up, and Louisiana and North Carolina, which we’re switching back to Toss-ups after having them in that category for much of last year. It’s possible that the race for the Senate will come down to these three Toss-ups, with the party that wins at least two of the three controlling the Senate. And that doesn’t even mention the lower-tier races in lighter shades of Red and Blue that adorn the map below, most of which are currently held by Democrats.”

A Political Wire reader sends an interesting simulation based on Cook Political Report ratings that shows Republicans with a 47% chance to take control.

A new WBUR poll in Massachusetts finds Martha Coakley (D) has the early advantage in the governor’s race and leads Charlie Baker (R) by double-digits, 39% to 29%.

Said pollster Steve Koczela: “She is doing very well among, particularly, women over the age of 50. They really are responding to what she has to say and have a very positive view of her so far.”

However, Baker “leads among women — and leads overall — in head-to-head matchups with four other Democrats vying for the governor’s chair.”

Illinois congressional candidate Susanne Atanus (R) told the Chicago Daily Herald that she “believes God controls the weather and has put tornadoes and diseases such as autism and dementia on earth as punishment for gay rights and legalized abortions.”

Said Atanus: “I am a conservative Republican and I believe in God first. God is angry. We are provoking him with abortions and same-sex marriage and civil unions. Same-sex activity is going to increase AIDS. If it’s in our military it will weaken our military. We need to respect God.”

Daily Beast: “The Tea Party Texas congressman challenging incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn in March’s primary is the new invisible man of American politics. The Texas congressman hasn’t shown up on Capitol Hill for a vote since January 9. Instead, he has made only sporadic public appearances, surfacing once in North Dallas on January 14 and then a few days later in Cairo. In between, Stockman missed key votes in Washington, including the omnibus budget. His spokeman, Donny Ferguson, has not responded to inquiries on the Congressman’s whereabouts.”

“The GOP has made opposition to Obamacare a central pillar of its 2014 campaign strategy. And even though the health care law has begun to turn around, that may not be such a bad idea given lingering public skepticism over the law,” The Week reports.

“However, there is one crucial piece of Obamacare that may well become a big winner for Democrats by the end of the year: The dramatic expansion of Medicaid. Unlike the overall law, the expansion of Medicaid is actually quite popular with voters of all political stripes.”

Greg Sargent notes how red state Democrats are handling the law: “They are not embracing Obamcare. But they oppose repeal, and they are standing behind the general goal of expanding coverage to those who can’t afford it.”