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Fiscal Cliff Deal Increasingly Unlikely

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Politico reports that “nearly all the major players” in the fiscal cliff negotiations believe a deal is “virtually impossible before the New Year.”

“Unlike the bank bailout in 2008, the tax deal in 2010 and the debt ceiling in 2011, the Senate almost certainly won’t swoop in and help sidestep a potential economic calamity… With the country teetering on this fiscal cliff of deep spending cuts and sharp tax hikes, the philosophical differences, the shortened timetable and the political dynamics appear to be insurmountable hurdles for a bipartisan deal by New Year’s Day.”

The New York Times notes that with just days left “before the fiscal punch lands, both sides are exhibiting
little sense of urgency, and new public statements Wednesday appeared to
be designed more to ensure the other side is blamed rather than to
foster progress toward a deal.”

Schatz Picked to Replace Inouye

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Hawaii Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D) selected Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz (D) to replace the late Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-HI) in the U.S. Senate, the Honolulu Star Advertiser reports.

Schatz said “he will fly to Washington tonight and be sworn in Thursday so he can participate in Senate votes to avert a fiscal cliff of federal tax increases and spending cuts scheduled to take effect in January.”

At 40 years old, Schatz will be the youngest senator — at least until Sen.-elect Chris Murphy (D-CT), who is 39, takes office next month.


Abercrombie chose Schatz from a list of recommendations from the Democratic Party of Hawaii that included Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI) and and Esther Kiaaina (D), the deputy director of the state Department of Land and Natural Resources.


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House Republicans Say Senate Must Go First

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House Republican leaders said the U.S. Senate needs to act first on legislation to avert the fiscal cliff, Politico reports, “hinting they would not bring the House back into session until Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) moves something through his chamber.”

Washington Post: “The move comes just days after these same GOP leaders failed to secure the Republican votes for Boehner’s ‘Plan B’, which would have extended the expiring tax cuts on all income up to $1 million and modified the pending across-the-board cuts to agency budgets by sparing the Pentagon. The statement did not include any guidance as to what measures the House could accept and did not indicate when Boehner would call the House back into session.”

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports the Treasury said the government “would hit its legal borrowing limit by
Monday, setting in motion emergency measures to keep the government
operating for several more weeks.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

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“I couldn’t believe the kind of people who had come and taken power. Many of them had never had any government experience. They had no respect as it were for government per se. I mean, I don’t know why you run for government office with the intent to close up government.”

— Rep. Bob Filner (D-CA), quoted by Southern California Public Radio, on leaving Congress to become Mayor of San Diego.

Tea Party Narrows Its Focus

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The New York Times notes the Tea Party is turning to more focused issues:

“Grass-roots leaders said this month that after losing any chance of repealing the national health care law, they would press states to ‘nullify’ or ignore it. They also plan to focus on a two-decade-old United Nations resolution that they call a plot against property rights, and on ‘fraud’ by local election boards that, some believe, let the Democrats steal the November vote.”

Media Tip: How to Eliminate Your “Uhhhs” and “Ummms”

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A guest post from Brad Phillips, author of The Media Training Bible.

After President Obama’s lackluster first presidential debate in October, many reporters noted the dozens of “uhhhs” that plagued his verbal delivery and made him appear ill-prepared.

You may think of that type of “verbal filler” as a minor cosmetic issue. But in the case of Caroline Kennedy, it doomed her political career before it started. In 2009, New York’s governor briefly considered her to fill a vacant Senate seat that opened when Hillary Clinton departed to become U.S. secretary of state. But her interviews were disasters. According to The Wall Street Journal, she said “you know” 168 times during a single 30-minute interview. After being roundly mocked by the local press, Ms. Kennedy removed herself from consideration.

[Read more…]

Recall Mania in 2012

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Joshua Spivak: “While the multi-billion dollar presidential campaign sucked up most of the nation’s attention this year, in scores of smaller elections across the country, voters took unprecedented action to force political changes of their own. In 2012, at least 168 elected officials faced recall votes. That appears to be an all-time record.”

“Of course, more recalls were attempted than actually made the ballot. On
at least 508 occasions, citizens took out recall petitions in 2012.
Most of them failed. Recalls against the governors of Michigan, Arizona,
and Louisiana went nowhere, and the attempts to recall the mayors of
Washington, D.C., Denver, Oakland, and Nashville all failed to get on
the ballot. What’s the difference between success and failure? Often,
money.”

JFK Conspiracy Theorists Seek Inclusion in Ceremony

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Wall Street Journal: “Officials in the city where President John F. Kennedy was gunned down Nov. 22, 1963, want to observe the 50th anniversary of that day with a celebration of his life. The city plans a ceremony that would include readings from Kennedy speeches by historian David McCullough and military jets flying over Dealey Plaza, where the 35th president was shot.”

“But some who believe the assassination was a conspiracy involving high-ranking U.S. officials say their views shouldn’t be excluded from the commemoration.”

Quote of the Day

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“I look forward to a situation where when the phone rings, I won’t be apprehensive that it’s some problem I have to deal with: some crisis — maybe that somebody else has done something stupid that I have to deal with, or in the worst case, something stupid I’ve done that I have to deal with.”

— Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA), quoted by Politico, on his retirement from Congress.

Could the House Pick an Outsider for Speaker?

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Norm Ornstein notes that ff 17 Republicans vote for someone other than John Boehner as speaker, “the House will be thrown into turmoil — no elected speaker, and the prospect of additional ballots and a whole lot of intrigue before the new speaker is chosen and sworn in.”

“What if Boehner doesn’t survive? Go to Article I, Section 2: The Constitution does not say that the speaker of the House has to be a member of the House. In fact, the House can choose anybody a majority wants to fill the post. Every speaker has been a representative from the majority party. But these days, the old pattern clearly is not working.”

Reversing a Coup at FreedomWorks

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“The day after Labor Day, just as campaign season was entering its final frenzy, FreedomWorks, the Washington-based tea party organization, went into free fall,” the Washington Post reports.

“Richard K. Armey, the group’s chairman and a former House majority leader, walked into the group’s Capitol Hill offices with his wife, Susan, and an aide holstering a handgun at his waist. The aim was to seize control of the group and expel Armey’s enemies: The gun-wielding assistant escorted FreedomWorks’ top two employees off the premises, while Armey suspended several others who broke down in sobs at the news.”

“The coup lasted all of six days. By Sept. 10, Armey was gone — with a promise of $8 million — and the five ousted employees were back. The force behind their return was Richard J. Stephenson, a reclusive Illinois millionaire who has exerted increasing control over one of Washington’s most influential conservative grass-roots organizations.”

GOP Pollster Says NRA Out of Touch

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GOP pollster Frank Luntz says that he doesn’t “think the NRA is listening” to the American public in the wake of the massacre of 20 children at an elementary school in Connecticut, Politico reports.

Said Luntz: “The public wants guns out of the schools, not in the schools. And they are not asking for a security official or someone else. I don’t think the NRA is listening. I don’t think they understand most Americans would protect the Second Amendment rights and yet agree with the idea that not every human being should own a gun, not every gun should be available at anytime, anywhere, for anyone. At gun shows, you should not be able to buy something there without any kind of check whatsoever.”

Fears Mount Over Fiscal Cliff

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A new Gallup poll finds Americans are rapidly becoming more pessimistic about reaching a deal to avert the fiscal cliff, with public opinion swinging 15 points in less than a week.

Just 50% of Americans now think it’s likely a deal will be struck, while 48% think it’s unlikely.

The Washington Post reports President Obama will cut short his vacation and return from Hawaii on Wednesday in a last ditch effort to restart budget talks with House Republicans.

Wonk Wire: The grand bargain is dead.

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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