Here’s an interesting new book: Getting Primaried: The Changing Politics of Congressional Primary Challenges by Robert Boatright.
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Will an Improving Economy Rescue Incumbents?
First Read calls an improving economy the sleeper issue for 2014.
“Consider that stronger attitudes about the economy and nation’s direction could raise the president’s job-approval rating five, six, or seven points. Democrats’ chances next year are much better if Obama’s approval is in the high 40s than the low 40s.”
“Then there are the vulnerable GOP governors in states like Florida (where the unemployment rate is 6.5%), Maine (6.7%), Ohio (7.5%), Pennsylvania (7.5%), and Wisconsin (6.5%). The unemployment rate dropping another full point in these states would represent quite the talking point for these governors. Ditto vulnerable Democratic governors in Colorado (6.8%), Connecticut (7.9%), and Illinois (8.9%).”
Bauer Fuels Indie Bid Speculation
Former South Carolina Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer (R) is not ruling out a third-party run for governor next year, the Columbia State reports.
Said Bauer: “I’m hearing more and more people say they are fed up with the two-party system. And they have asked me about running.”
When asked if a third-party run would end up siphoning enough votes away from Gov. Nikki Haley (R) to give the race to Vincent Sheheen (D), Bauer shot back: “You don’t think a third-party candidate (can) win?”
First Read: “Bauer is a VERY flawed candidate, but we’re believers that his message (“people are fed up with the two-party system) is a potentially powerful one for folks in 2014. Just something to keep an eye on…”
Kitzhaber Will Announce Re-Election Bid
Oregon Gov. John Kitzhaber (D), “to the surprise of almost no one, apparently plans to announce a bid for re-election Monday morning at a Portland elementary school,” the Oregonian reports.
Kitzhaber “served two terms starting in the mid-1990s and won a historic third term in 2010. He has been giving signs in recent weeks that he plans to run again, identifying tax reform as his next big initiative.”
“Kitzhaber’s entry into the race would essentially clear the primary field of Democrats who might have gubernatorial ambitions, and would make him the immediate front-runner against any Republican in the general election.”
Will Democrats Run on the Minimum Wage in 2014?
National Journal: “Democrats increasingly view championing the pay of hourly workers as a can’t-lose issue that revs up their base of liberal, black, and Hispanic voters. Perhaps more importantly, it also resonates with the white, blue-collar workers who overwhelmingly side with Republicans.”
“Since minority participation tapers off in mid-term elections, assailing Republican opposition to hiking the minimum wage could be a more potent Democratic wedge than immigration reform, particularly in red states with competitive U.S. Senate campaigns, such as West Virginia, Kentucky, Arkansas, North Carolina, and Louisiana.”
Filner Faces Sentencing Today
“In what could be the final act in a long-running drama, ex-Mayor Bob Filner is set to appear in court Monday to be sentenced on three counts of mistreating women, the kind of accusations that drove him to resign,” the Los Angeles Times reports.
“The judge is widely expected to approve a plea bargain that includes no jail time, three months of home confinement, a reduction in his city pension, mandatory mental health counseling and a bar against seeking public office.”
Labor Intervenes in the GOP Civil War
National Journal notes that some moderate Republican groups are getting the financial backing of labor unions in their efforts to beat back the tea party.
“That puts these labor groups on the front line of the GOP’s intra-party ideological conflict, a battle where the affiliation to unions won’t be considered advantageous, to say the least.”
Warren Moves to Expand Her Base
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) “has captured headlines by pressuring such industry titans as Goldman Sachs Chairman Lloyd C. Blankfein for transparency… With less fanfare, she’s forging alliances with Republican Senate
colleagues, expanding her political network in Massachusetts, and
tapping her backers to help Democrats running for re-election in other
states,” Bloomberg reports.
“It’s a strategy that sounds a lot like one adopted by another woman who entered the chamber with a national profile that made her a lightning-rod for praise and derision as she was dogged by questions about her presidential aspirations.”
Americans Fine with Modest Budget Deal
A new McClatchy-Marist Poll finds that a congressional budget deal expected this week “might not be a grand bargain to solve the country’s long term fiscal woes, but it is largely what Americans want.”
“The likely deal would ease the automatic spending cuts known as the sequester, with more defense and domestic spending, no major cuts in popular programs and no big tax increases – all what majorities of American voters prefer, according to the survey.”
That said, 68% “do not think Obama and Congress could reach a budget deal before government funding runs out in mid-January, despite reports that a congressional agreement could come this week.”
San Diego Mayoral Race a Dead Heat
A new U-T San Diego/10News poll in San Diego finds the two-month sprint to become San Diego’s next mayor begins in a statistical dead heat with Kevin Faulconer (R) just edging David Alvarez (D), 47% to 46%, among likely voters.
The Man Hired to Save Detroit
Kevyn Orr, “who has never run for political office, finds himself in an extraordinary role. He holds power even more concentrated than that of the emergency control board that intervened when New York City was teetering near bankruptcy, an unelected lawyer chiefly responsible for the reinvention of a major American city in decay. And there’s a deadline — 10 months,” the New York Times reports.
“The assignment is enormous, a peculiar mix of duties, some stated and others not, for a man who by all accounts had been leading a comfortable life as a bankruptcy lawyer. His new job? Urban planner, numbers cruncher, city spokesman, negotiator, politician, good cop, bad cop.”
Quote of the Day
“I’m happy to see Thanksgiving and Christmas come around so that we can have some real celebration away from this place because there’s nothing to celebrate around here.”
— Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO), quoted by The Hill.
Congress Readies Year End Push
“A Congress stymied by partisan divides, blown deadlines and intraparty squabbling gets a late chance this week to end the year with an elusive budget deal and to make headway on other fronts,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“In the final week of 2013 that the Senate and House are scheduled to be in Washington at the same time, lawmakers and aides are optimistic that negotiators can reach a budget accord and continue to make progress on a farm bill and other measures.”
“Meanwhile, a Senate rule change pushed through by Democrats should help ease the way for confirmation of several of President Barack Obama’s executive-branch and judicial nominees, even as Republicans still have the power to prolong the process.”
Three Senators Try to Hold Off GOP in South
Republicans “are so giddy about the prospect of winning” Sen. Mary Landrieu’s (R-LA) seat “that their main problem is too many of them are trying to do so,” the New York Times reports.
“As Democrats look across the rest of the South, the outlook does not get much better. Ms. Landrieu, along with Senators Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Kay Hagan of North Carolina, is pretty much all that is left of Southern Democrats in the Senate.”
“All three are up for re-election next year. And the outcome of their races could determine whether the Southern Democrat, once a formidable species in the Senate, is headed for extinction.”
Gillibrand Sees Vote on Assault Bill Slip Away
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) “is headed back to the drawing board with her controversial proposal to take sexual assault cases outside the chain of command,” The Hill reports.
“Gillibrand had been assured a vote on her plan during work on the Defense authorization bill. But a dispute over amendments is prompting Congress to ready an alternative procedure to pass the legislation — one that isn’t likely allow the Senate to consider any major changes to the bill.”
New Yorker: The relentless rise of Kirsten Gillibrand
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“I do support unemployment benefits for the 26 weeks that they’re paid for. If you extend it beyond that, you do a disservice to these workers.”
— Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), in an interview on Fox News.
Bonus Quote of the Day
“Winning elections is about convincing the voters that the we have their back, that we’re on their side. If we want to win, we must offer solutions to problems that people face every day. We have not done this recently and it has allowed Democrats to take power, it has allowed them to push their partisan politics, and even worse to enact their leftist agenda.”
— House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA), quoted by the Washington Post.
Jackson Will Stay Involved in Virginia Politics
E.W. Jackson, the controversial GOP nominee for Virginia lieutenant governor who lost by 11 points, is launching a new political action committee called “Unite Virginia,” Politico reports.
Jackson said his new PAC “will focus on a wide range of issues, from supporting school vouchers to restoring voting rights for non-violent felons to fighting against a change in the state constitutional amendment banning gay marriage.”
