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There are More Centrist Republicans Than Most Think

October 6, 2013 at 9:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Robert Costa: “They may sometimes be silent and fearful of stirring conservative ire,
but more than 100 members of the House GOP aremuch more centrist than
you’d imagine. These are the members from purple and light-red
districts, who rarely go on television and, unlike their more unruly
colleagues, stick with the leadership. They are critical to sustaining
Boehner’s power, and, should the GOP find a way to extend the debt limit
and once again fund the government, they’ll deserve credit.”

“Ultimately, a large group of rank-and-file Republicans wants the mess
to end. They may not have the moxie to outmaneuver House conservatives,
but they certainly have the numbers.”

Shutdown Has Put House in Play

October 6, 2013 at 7:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Public Policy Polling survey finds that if the 2014 midterm elections were held today, Republicans “would be in grave danger of losing control of the House of Representatives.”

In a series of 24 surveys in GOP-held House districts, Republican incumbents are behind in match ups with generic Democratic challengers in 17 districts. In 4 other districts, the incumbent Republican trails after being told that the incumbent supported the government shutdown. In just 3 districts are incumbents leading generic challengers after voters are told the incumbent supported the government shutdown.

Democrats need 17 seats to win control of the House. These results show that if the election were held today, such a pickup would be within reach.

GOP Floats Short Term Extension of Debt Limit

October 6, 2013 at 6:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A senior House Republican tells CNN that “one idea being considered to end the immediate fiscal impasse is a bill to fund the government and extend the nation’s borrowing authority for six weeks.”

“The GOP lawmaker said a committee could then be set up to negotiate the fiscal issues dividing the two parties and negotiate a plan to keep the government funded for the rest of the year without the proverbial gun to their heads.”


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More Divided Than Ever

October 6, 2013 at 6:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The ideological, cultural and political differences that led to this moment of extreme governmental dysfunction are almost certain to shape elections and legislative battles in the near term,” Dan Balz reports.

“That is the conclusion of politicians, political strategists and scholars who have been living with a deepening red-blue divide in America that they say has made this era of politics the most polarized in more than a century. However bad it may have seemed in the 1990s, the last time there was a shutdown , or after the contested presidential election in 2000, or a decade ago during a divisive war, the fundamentals are worse today.”

A Crisis Planned for Months

October 6, 2013 at 6:10 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Shortly after President Obama started his second term, a loose-knit coalition of conservative activists led by former Attorney General Edwin Meese III gathered in the capital to plot strategy. Their push to repeal Mr. Obama’s health care law was going nowhere, and they desperately needed a new plan,” the New York Times reports.

“Out of that session, held one morning in a location the members insist on keeping secret, came a little-noticed ‘blueprint to defunding Obamacare,’ signed by Mr. Meese and leaders of more than three dozen conservative groups.”

“It articulated a take-no-prisoners legislative strategy that had long percolated in conservative circles: that Republicans could derail the health care overhaul if conservative lawmakers were willing to push fellow Republicans — including their cautious leaders — into cutting off financing for the entire federal government.”

What is the Shutdown is About?

October 5, 2013 at 1:56 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “The twin shutdowns of 1995 and 1996 had a theme: Cut federal spending, especially on Medicare, to eliminate the budget deficit in a prescribed length of time. This time around, even many Republicans no longer know what they want to achieve.”

Said Rep. Dennis Ross (R-FL): “I think now it’s a lot about pride.”

Florida Republicans Back Cruz

October 5, 2013 at 1:28 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) “may be catching grief from some fellow Republicans in Congress for his role as a leader of the group in Congress in favor of shutting down the government rather than funding the Affordable Care Act, but he’s getting support from the Florida Republican Party,” the Tampa Tribune reports.

“The state party’s caucus of state committeemen and committeewomen, who make up the governing executive committee of the party, just voted by acclamation during a meeting in Orlando to express their support for Cruz.”

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

October 5, 2013 at 12:38 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“This mess was created by the Republicans for one purpose, and they lost. People in my district are calling in for Obamacare — affordable health care — in large numbers. These guys have lost, and they can’t figure out how to admit it… So we sit here until they figure out they fuckin’ lost.”

— Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA), quoted by Slate, on when the government shutdown will end.

Perry Blasts California as He Eyes Another Bid

October 5, 2013 at 12:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) traveled to California to contrast that state’s “big government, protectionist, nanny state” with his “limited-government, unsubsidized, freedom state,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

It’s his attempt to lay the groundwork for another presidential bid after the first one in 2012 didn’t go so well.

“A second try depends on Perry’s ability to dramatically alter his image. To that end, the governor is coursing across the country with new hipster glasses and a more disciplined approach, taking on Democratic governors’ policies, trying to swipe their state’s jobs, and putting himself prominently in the public eye.”

Women See Republican Party Drifting Further Away

October 5, 2013 at 11:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new National Journal poll finds that just 14% of women said the Republican Party had moved closer to their perspective since the 2012 presidential election. More than twice as many women, 33%, said the party had drifted further from them. A plurality, 46%, saw no change.

Bonus Quote of the Day

October 5, 2013 at 10:25 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“You really have to call Cruz, I’m not even joking about that. That’s
really what you have to do, because he’s the one that set up the
strategy, he’s the one that got us into this mess, and so we’ve got to
know what the next move is.”

— Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA), quoted by the New York Times, when asked what Republicans were going to do next in the budget standoff.

Obama Says Freshman GOP Senators are Just Seeking Publicity

October 5, 2013 at 10:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

In an interview with the Associated Press, President Obama contrasted his tenure as a senator with the current crop of first-term Republican senators, saying he “didn’t go around courting the media” or “trying to shut down the government” while he was in the Senate.

Said Obama: “I recognize that in today’s media age, being controversial, taking controversial positions, rallying the most extreme parts of your base, whether it’s left or right, is a lot of times the fastest way to get attention and raise money. But it’s not good for government.”

Clinton Will Consider Presidential Bid Next Year

October 5, 2013 at 9:02 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Hillary Clinton said she would consider mounting another presidential bid sometime next year, Newsday reports.

Said Clinton: “I want to think seriously about it. I probably won’t start thinking about it until sometime next year.”

She admitted that it’s “something on a lot of people’s minds, and it’s on my mind as well.”

The Seinfeld Shutdown

October 5, 2013 at 8:49 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Marc Thiessen: “Quick: What do Republicans want in exchange for ending the government shutdown? If you know the answer, congratulations — because Republicans sure don’t.”

“It calls to mind the episode of Seinfeld where Jerry and George are coming up with an idea for a show to pitch to NBC — and decide it will be ‘a show about nothing. That’s what this standoff has become — the Seinfeld Shutdown, a shutdown about nothing.”

Headline of the Day

October 5, 2013 at 8:35 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Obama presses GOP’s Boehner”

— Richmond Times Dispatch, October 4, 2013.

A Longshot Way to End the Shutdown

October 5, 2013 at 8:17 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Democrats outlined a plan to use a “discharge petition” to force a vote to end the government shutdown. It effectively overrides House leaders by presenting a petition signed by a majority of representatives to bring a bill to vote on the floor.

Speaker John Boehner’s press secretary immediately dismissed the idea on Twitter: “Ah, the old discharge petition move. Zero percent of the time it works every time.”

Except that Digital First Media finds four high profile times the maneuver has worked in the past.

Quote of the Day

October 5, 2013 at 8:03 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Today, too many in our politics choose scorched earth over common ground. Many of our public debates are happening in what I like to call an evidence-free zone, where ideology trumps data and common sense. That is a recipe for paralysis, not progress.”

— Hillary Clinton, quoted by the Associated Press.

Boehner Urges Unity as He Plots Way Out of Crisis

October 5, 2013 at 7:51 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

In a meeting with GOP lawmakers, Speaker John Boehner “offered no clue as to how he expected Congress to get out of the dead end it has found itself in, with the government shut for a fourth day and no clear path to raise the federal debt limit to avoid the nation’s first default,” the New York Times reports.

Said Boehner: “We are locked in an epic battle,” while urging them to “hang tough.”

“The overarching problem for the man at the center of the budget fight, say allies and opponents, is that he and his leadership team have no real idea how to resolve the fiscal showdown. They are only trying to survive another day, Republican strategists say, hoping to maintain unity as long as possible so that when the Republican position collapses, they can capitulate on two issues at once — financing the government and raising the debt ceiling — and head off any internal party backlash.”

Politico: “The speaker’s clearly been weakened internally and in public opinion — which Obama seems eager to exploit.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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