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What Virginia’s Election Will Tell Us About the Future

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Larry Sabato: “The crystallized summary of this nearly 50-year tour through history is less an iron rule of politics than a cautionary one: Omens can be deceptive. Of the 12 examples in our table, five Virginia elections were genuinely predictive of the next year’s midterm results. Another five were misleading indicators. The remaining two (1985 and 1989) could be argued either way.”

“So take out the coin in your pocket and flip it. Your nickel is as good a bet on the future course of politics as the outcome of Virginia’s gubernatorial elections. Remember this in November when you see firm prognostications about ‘what it all means.'”

EPA Adviser Stole Nearly $1 Million

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“Over the past 12 years, John C. Beale was often away from his job as a high-level staffer at the Environmental Protection Agency. He cultivated an air of mystery and explained his lengthy absences by telling his bosses that he was doing top-secret work, including for the CIA,” the Washington Post reports.

“For years, apparently, no one checked.”

“Now, Beale is charged with stealing nearly $900,000 from the EPA by receiving pay and bonuses he did not deserve. He faces up to three years in prison.”


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Chafee Will Not Run Again

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Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee (D) will not seek re-election in 2014, the Providence Journal reports.

The move “opens the door for a number of prominent politicians who have been eyeing the governor’s office.”

Chafee recently switched his voter registration to become a Democrat in advance of what many expected to be a tough re-election race.

Paul Threatens Filibuster of Syria Resolution

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Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) will filibuster any effort to bring an authorization to use military force in Syria to a quick vote in the Senate, the New York Times reports.

“The decision likely will scramble the Senate schedule and could delay any vote of the Senate for days. House leaders want the Senate to move first to build momentum. But for the Senate to move quickly, the majority leader, Harry Reid of Nevada, would need unanimous consent at least to bring the authorization of force to the Senate floor.”

However, Roll Call notes a filibuster may not be that easy.

Christie Won’t Take Stand on Syria Intervention

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New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) called the use of chemical weapons by Syria “intolerable for civilized society” but would not give his opinion about whether the United States should respond militarily, the Bergen Record reports.

Said Christie: “I’m going to leave that to the people who represent us in Congress to make that decision.”

Cruz Says Obama is Providing Al Qaeda an Air Force

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Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) told The Blaze that President Obama’s efforts to authorize military strikes in Syria was a misguided attempt to intervene in a civil war.

Said Cruz: “We certainly don’t have a dog in the fight. We should be focused on defending the United States of America. That’s why young men and women sign up to join the military, not to, as you know, serve as Al Qaeda’s air force.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

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“We work, we argue about some issues. We are human. Sometimes one of us gets vexed. But I would like to repeat once again that global mutual interests form a good basis for finding a joint solution to our problems.”

— Russian President Vladimir Putin, in an interview with the Associated Press, on President Obama canceling their scheduled meeting.

Poll Finds Most Think Polls are Biased

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A new Kantar poll finds the vast majority of Americans think polls are biased.

Key findings: 75% said they believe the polls are biased in some way, though they couldn’t agree in which direction, while 17% said they thought polls had a liberal bias and 4% said they were slanted toward conservatives.

Rumseld Calls Obama the ‘So-Called Commander in Chief’

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Former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld referred to President Obama as “the so-called commander in chief” and also said Obama didn’t need to seek Congressional authorization to strike Syria, The Hill reports.

Said Rumsfeld: “Now, did he need to go to Congress? No. Presidents as commander in chief have authority, but they have to behave like a commander in chief.”

Obama Says Congress Set the Red Line

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President Obama “pushed back on the idea that his credibility is on the line if Congress fails to authorize strikes against Syria — saying they own the ‘red line’ he set a year ago,” Roll Call reports.

Said Obama: “First of all, I didn’t set a red line. The world set a red line.”

He added: “Congress set a red line when it ratified that treaty. Congress set a red line when it indicated that in a piece of legislation titled the Syria Accountability Act that some of the horrendous things happening on the ground there need to be answered for.”

Quote of the Day

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“I don’t know about you, but seeing Chris Christie frolicking on the beach is not going to drive me to go to the shore.”

— New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Barbara Buono (D), quoted by CBS New York, questioning Christie’s new tourism commercials.

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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— Larry Sabato, Center for Politics, University of Virginia

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