What Virginia’s Election Will Tell Us About the Future

Larry Sabato: “The crystallized summary of this nearly 50-year tour through history is less an iron rule of politics than a cautionary one: Omens can be deceptive. Of the 12 examples in our table, five Virginia elections were genuinely predictive of the next year’s midterm results. Another five were misleading indicators. The remaining two (1985 and 1989) could be argued either way.”

“So take out the coin in your pocket and flip it. Your nickel is as good a bet on the future course of politics as the outcome of Virginia’s gubernatorial elections. Remember this in November when you see firm prognostications about ‘what it all means.'”