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Flood of Late Spending Comes from Unknown Sources

November 2, 2014 at 8:20 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A stealthy coterie of difficult-to-trace outside groups is slipping tens of millions of dollars of attacks ads and negative automated telephone calls into the final days of the midterm campaign, helping fuel an unprecedented surge of last-minute spending,” the New York Times reports.

“Much of the advertising is being timed to ensure that no voter will know who is paying for it until after the election on Tuesday. Some of the groups are ‘super PACs’ that did not exist before Labor Day but have since spent heavily on political advertising, adding to the volatility of close Senate and House races.”

“Others formed earlier in the year but remained dormant until recently, reporting few or no contributions in recent filings with the Federal Election Commission, only to unleash six- and seven-figure advertising campaigns as Election Day draws near. Yet more spending is coming from nonprofit organizations with bland names that have popped up in recent weeks but appear to have no life beyond being a conduit for the ads.”

Another Staffer Accuses DeMaio of Harassment

November 2, 2014 at 8:03 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Just days before Tuesday’s election in the tight race for San Diego’s 52nd Congressional District seat, a second former staffer for candidate Carl DeMaio (R) is accusing him of sexual harassment, KPBS reports.

Said former intern Justin Harper: “I was at the urinal, and (DeMaio) came from the stall that was closest to the urinal and was kind of just standing there hovering. I turned around and realized that it was Carl. He had his pants up, but his fly was undone, and he had his hand grasping his genitals. I just walked out. I didn’t say anything to him, I just left.”

Voters Favor GOP By Narrow Margin

November 2, 2014 at 7:42 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds Republicans “hold a narrow edge on the question of which party likely voters want to control Congress signaling that the GOP heads into Tuesday’s balloting with a breeze, but not a strong wind, at its back.”

“The survey found plentiful evidence that Election Day will draw an electorate that thinks the nation is on the wrong track and dislikes the direction in which President Obama has led the country. With eight or more Senate races considered close, even a slight advantage for Republicans could produce enough victories to give the party the six seats it needs to gain control of the chamber.”

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Snyder Just Ahead in Michigan

November 2, 2014 at 7:28 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Michigan finds Gov. Rick Snyder (R) just ahead of challenger Mark Schauer (D), 46% to 45%.

Quinn Holds Small Lead in Illinois

November 2, 2014 at 7:26 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Illinois finds Gov. Pat Quinn (D) just ahead of challenger Bruce Rauner (R), 47% to 45%.

Crist Widens Lead in Florida

November 2, 2014 at 7:08 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Zogby poll in Florida finds Charlie Crist (D) leading Gov. Rick Scott (R) in the race for governor, 45% to 38%, with Libertarian Adrian Wyllie at 8%.

However, a new Public Policy Polling survey shows Crist and Scott tied at 44%.

Independent Candidate Endorses Foley in Connecticut

November 2, 2014 at 1:18 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

In a “stunning move,” Joe Visconti (I) said he was dropping out of the race for Connecticut governor and endorsing Tom Foley (R), the Hartford Courant reports.

“The move could provide a boost to Foley in a race recent polls have put at a dead heat… Visconti said he was dropping out because he doesn’t want to see Democratic incumbent Dan Malloy re-elected.”

Said Visconti: “This is a dogfight and I couldn’t let Gov. Malloy win.”

GOP Could Win 8 Senate Seats

November 2, 2014 at 12:49 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Harry Enten: “In the latest FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast, Democrats still have a 27 percent chance of holding on to control of the chamber. But the more pressing question now may be the size of the Republican majority come next Congress. New polls out this weekend suggest that Republicans may not just win the six seats they need for control, but quite possibly eight seats — Republicans now have a 41.4 percent chance of doing just that.”

The Economy Elects the President But Not the Congress

November 2, 2014 at 12:47 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Lynn Vavreck: “In presidential elections, if the economy grows during the election year, the incumbent president (or the incumbent’s party) is more likely to be re-elected. The correlation is so impressive that political scientists often refer to national economic conditions as part of the structural or fundamental conditions that drive election outcomes.”

“But while the nation’s economy is a strong shaper of presidential election outcomes, the president himself is the shaper of congressional outcomes.”

Obama Favorability Hits New Lows

November 2, 2014 at 11:27 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that favorable views of President Obama and the sense that he understands the problems of average Americans both have dropped to career lows.

Key findings: “Just 44% now see the president favorably, a basic measure of personal popularity – compared with 49% in late January and 60% at the start of his second term… Additionally, a career-low 46% say Obama understands the problems of people like them, with similar numbers on the strength of his leadership (rated positively by 46%), managerial skills (45%) and the extent to which he can be trusted in a crisis (49%).”

Clinton Allies Say She Should Wait

November 2, 2014 at 11:24 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Veteran Hillary Clinton advisers say she shouldn’t accelerate her early 2015 timetable for announcing whether she’ll run for president, despite calls from prominent backers of President Obama for her to enter the race soon after Tuesday’s congressional elections,” Bloomberg reports.

“In interviews and e-mail exchanges, six political operatives closely aligned with Clinton offered up overlapping lists of reasons why they don’t expect her to jump in this year. She’s more popular when she’s not directly engaged in electoral politics, she’s better off waiting for things to settle out after what’s expected to be an ugly election night for Democrats, and she benefits from staying out of the fray while Republican hopefuls start to tear each other apart.”

Perdue Pushes Ahead in Georgia

November 2, 2014 at 10:33 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new NBC News/Marist Poll in Georgia finds David Perdue (R) leads Michelle Nunn (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 44%.

Ernst Pulls Ahead to Solid Lead in Iowa

November 2, 2014 at 7:51 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Des Moines Register poll in Iowa finds Joni Ernst (R) has charged to a 7-point lead over Bruce Braley (D), 51% to 44%, “which buoys the GOP’s hope that an Iowa victory will be the tipping point to a Republican takeover of the U.S. Senate.”

Said pollster Ann Selzer: “This race looks like it’s decided. That said, there are enormous resources being applied to change all that.”

Nate Silver: “This poll, in other words, is a big deal. Just as Ernst’s chances have surpassed 70 percent for the first time, so have the GOP’s chances of taking over the Senate, which are now 72 percent. This is not coincidental: Iowa is a pivot point in the Senate calculus, and the two numbers have closely tracked each other for much of the year.”

Landrieu Leads But Not By Enough to Avoid Runoff

November 2, 2014 at 7:06 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Louisiana finds Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) leading challenger Bill Cassidy (R) in the jungle primary, 43% to 35%.

However, a head-to-head match in a December runoff shows Cassidy leading 48% to 47%.

A new NBC News/Marist poll shows the same result with Landrieu leading the primary, 44% to 36%, but losing a runoff 50% to 45%.

McConnell Headed for Re-Election

November 2, 2014 at 7:05 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Kentucky finds Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) with a solid lead over challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes (D), 50% to 42%.

A new NBC News/Marist poll has McConnell ahead 50% to 41%.

Cotton Solidly Ahead in Arkansas

November 2, 2014 at 6:59 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Arkansas finds Tom Cotton (R) leading Sen. Mark Pryor (D) by eight points, 49% to 41%.

Kasich Headed for Monster Win

November 2, 2014 at 6:57 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Columbus Dispatch poll in Ohio finds Gov. John Kasich (R) is thumping challenger Ed FitzGerald (D) by 28 points, 62% to 34%.

Walker Barely Ahead in Wisconsin

November 2, 2014 at 6:04 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Wisconsin finds Gov. Scott Walker (R) just ahead of challenger Mary Burke (D), 48% to 47%.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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